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No 9 (2016)

QUESTIONS OF METHODOLOGY

3-10 461
Abstract
The article considers selected issues of implementation of SNA 2008 in contemporary official statistics. Currently statistical offices of many countries of the world initiated work on implementation of the SNA 2008. However, it is clear from the report submitted last year by the Intersecretariat Working Group on National Accounts to the Economic and Social Council of United Nations there are still many countries which continue to compile national accounts on the basis of the SNA 1993. This is associated with the problems of securing primary data essential for accounts compilation as well as with harmonization of various systems of macroeconomic statistics. On the other hand, new treatment of a number of important transactions and assets requires revision of national accounts of countries, introduction of new definitions and classifications, and this is a time consuming process. Some provisions of the SNA 2008 clear from a conceptual point of view are difficult to implement in practice. Problems of implementation of SNA 2008 continue to be discussed at various forums and in specialized literature. Thus in 2015 the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth (IARIW) together with the OECD organized the international conference on national accounts and problems of implementation of the SNA 2008. In the conference participated a lot of internationally acclaimed experts in the field of national accounts. The authors summarize rather controversial opinions expressed by the participants with regard to innovations in the SNA 2008 from the perspective of the necessity to adapt international standards of national accounting to the distinguishing features of the socio-economic structure of the countries and their national statistical practices.
11-16 319
Abstract
In addition to the existing methodological questions of organizing the work on international comparisons, the article reviews possibilities and challenges associated with construction of price indices and calculation of purchasing power parity. Foundation for these two types of statistical work created by data generated on the basis of prices on goods and services. The article sums up the role of international organizations in the improvement of price statistics and methodology for calculation of purchasing power parities of currencies. The author defines areas for further development of work on the use of purchasing power parities in international comparisons of GDP and makes suggestions to optimize the work on the price statistics and international comparisons.

PAGES OF HISTORY

БИБЛИОГРАФИЯ

MATHEMATICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELING

17-29 391
Abstract
The objective of this article is to analyze efficiency of business entities. This research examines the impact of capital structure on financial effectiveness of firm which characterizes its ability to reach goals related to the maximization of profit and/or value of the company for shareholders. The research is based on the indicator «return on assets» (ROA) which is the most commonly used efficiency measure. With the use of the financial reporting data of economic entities of a number of Russian sectors of economy over the period from 2011 to 2014 several hypotheses about the impact of capital structure and some set of addition variables on financial effectiveness were tested by use of econometric modeling. Several models of panel data with various sets of independent variables were specified and estimated. Inflation data was also taken into the account. Also possible emergence of an endogeneity in data was considered for values of some indicators are formed simultaneously at the end of the reporting period. As a result, the authors obtained the quantitative characteristics reflecting degree of negative impact of a share of debt in total passive on the return on assets, and checked hypotheses of influence of the share of short-term and long-term debts on ROA. Distinctions on the scale of influence of branch accessory of assets on their profitability were also revealed.
30-37 411
Abstract
The purpose of this article is to show the role of statistical hypothesis when testing the significance of the results of statistical studies and formulating conclusions based on them. The paper broaches controversial issues related to the influence of the securitization operations (which are widely used in Russia in recent years as a tool to reduce risks) on the main financial indicators of banks’ activities. The authors argue that although the securitization, has proved its effectiveness in the implementation of large-scale government programs to attract capital into the infrastructure, it still carries some unforeseen problems for the banks, which become obstacles in their development. In the search for answers to these questions as a check on were put forward various research hypotheses on the impact of securitization on the financial performance of banks in the Russian Federation. The authors tested the hypothesis using nonparametric statistical tools: G criterion T test and Wilcoxon T-test (signed rank). Based on the conducted research it is concluded that securitization has an impact on the performance of banks by increasing their net income and improving the return on equity, however this result was observed only in highest rated banks, while smaller players in the lending market in the Russian Federation that do not have high credit ratings are not ready for effective implementation of securitization and it is move likely that it will not be beneficial for their performance. The authors demonstrate the possible consequences of errors frequently encountered in applied research, such as testing the null hypothesis without alternative data testing.

STATISICAL ANALYSIS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROCESSES

38-48 513
Abstract
Using the example of the Republic of Belarus the author outlines current demographic situation, identifies key trends of demographic processes. The article determines and analyzes major challenges of demographic development, such as: depopulation, aging of population, low birth rate, relatively low life expectancy and high death rates (especially among males of working age), decrease in the number and proportion of working age population. The paper considers the results of the National Demographic Security Programme of the Republic of Belarus, 2011-2015, assesses its key success factors, summarizes perspectives of demographic development and proposes basic directions for improving demographic policy.
49-55 761
Abstract
One of the key obstruction factors when it comes to re-shaping the national pension system on the basis of insurance principles is the preservation of the Soviet system of early retirement, which stipulates assignment and payment of «insurance pensions» much earlier than the generally established by legislation retirement age. The logical result of preserving early retirement system is the redistribution of financial resources (both insurance premiums and federal transfers) of the pension system from those pensioners, who choose to retire in accordance with the «usual procedure» to «early leavers» during the entire period preceding the generally established retirement age. The exacerbated budgetary and financial crisis of 2014-2016 lent additional urgency to solving the issue of funding of early pensions, which requires not only strategic, but operational solution to the matter of budgetary imbalance of the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation (PFRF). Repeated attempts to re-shape the early retirement system, expressed in the introduction of the legislation that has stopped recording special work record when assigning pension through the system of the PFRF, establishment of an additional tariff for insurance contributions, attempts to transfer the recipients of early pensions for the entire period until generally established retirement age to the so-called occupational pension systems, eventually failed. Among the recent accomplishments are the introduction of additional tariffs of insurance contributions for workers of harmful or hazardous enterprises, directed to the budget of the PFRF, which, however, is in no way linked to the duration of the period of receipt of early retirement and its size; and assessment of work places, which allowed to reduce their number and thus in the future to reduce the number of applicants for early retirement.
56-64 337
Abstract
The article reviews practices of developed countries with regard to creating inter-agency resources on child and family statistics to monitor and analyze social well-being of these groups of citizens. This type of analysis is essential for developing state policy and specific support programmes for children and families, to monitor the programmes’ implementation and subsequent estimation of the results. The quality of information resource has a strong influence on the results of state programmes. Usually statistical resources with data on children and families with children are developed on the basis of state statists and are co-created by all the agencies responsible for enforcement of rights and legally protected interests of children. They include integrated plans and reports on programmes of federal agencies, regional and local authorities, focused on advancement of children and families with children. To monitor indices of goals and results with regard to every stage of the social programmes implementation, a special section of interagency statistical resources should be separated. Authorized agency-coordinators develop thematic classifications, methods of observation and calculation of the indicators in order to integrate the data coming from different sources. Uniform standards for the presentation of statistical data by government agencies, production discipline, general statistical culture ensure harmonization of data collection methods and integration of indicators, which allows for systematic and comparative analysis. National universities actively participate in the development of techniques for analysis of family and childhood-related issues, studying the dynamics of indicators, creation of research models. The authors of this article emphasize the importance of openness and accessibility of statistical resources that enlighten the society about state support policies for children and families with children; it provides general public with a possibility to compare social programmes and their implementation results at regional and municipal levels. Foreign experience can be useful for creating a similar statistical resource in Russia within the framework of the « Russian National Children’s Strategy for 2012-2017».

ОБРАЗОВАНИЕ И РЫНОК ТРУДА

65-74 516
Abstract
The paper is aimed at analyzing the structure and socio-demographic characteristics of workers with higher education, graduated from high schools in various fields of education, and estimating the mismatch between the individual's field of education and his / her occupation (education-occupation mismatch).The research base is constituted by Labor Force Survey for 2014. The research results show that the structure of the workers by the fields of education differentiates depending on gender, age and settlement. The share of graduates of economic and legal professions is significantly higher and the proportion of people with higher technical and teacher education is lower among young workers than among older. Differences in the occupational structure of higher education specialties, young and older workers make demands on different jobs and do not directly compete in the labor market. Russian labor market is characterized by a significant education-occupation mismatch. Almost thirty percent of workers report that their job is only partially related or not related at all to their field of study. The extent of mismatch varies across college major. Medical high-skilled professionals have minimal likelihood of mismatch. Graduates from Agricultural sciences have maximal likelihood of mismatch. Men are mismatched to a larger extent than women in some female-dominated fields of education (Education, Economy and Management) whereas women are mismatched to a larger extent than men in some male-dominated fields of education (Engineering and Engineering-related technologies).

МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫЕ СОТРУДНИЧЕСТВО



ISSN 2313-6383 (Print)
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)