QUESTIONS OF METHODOLOGY
The introductory part of the article argues the relevance of continuing research on the conceptual and methodological problems of international comparisons of macroeconomic indicators due to begging of new round of the International Comparison Program (ICP) of GDP by Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs), designed to build unique science-based systems of statistical data on the world economy and the place of each country in it.
The body of the article formulates the author's view of the basic methodological approaches to international comparisons of macroeconomic indicators; it also focuses on several areas for improving the quality of international statistics. It is argued that to improve the quality of international comparisons, there is a particular need to implement in the national statistical practice of individual countries the methodological procedures for measuring the following main economic transactions: research and development expenditure, government expenditure on the acquisition of weapons systems, imputed output of financial intermediation services, updated in the 2008 SNA. The paper explains the need for updating some purchasing power parities methodology provisions and postulates, especially those concerning non-market government services. According to the author, it would be beneficial to continue the debate on the merits and limitations of the Elteto, Koves and Szulc (EKS) method and the Geary – Khamis method.
The conclusion is that the development of standards for international comparisons of PPP-based GDP will be in the interests of the governments across the world, national central banks, international organizations, and, of course, will contribute to solving modern problems in national socio-economic statistics and Russian statistics, in particular.
MATHEMATICAL AND STATISTICAL METHODS IN ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING
The article discusses directions for improving the methodology of interterritorial differentiation analysis based on the assessment of the effectiveness of the use of tax potential (on the example of the Tambov region).
In the introductory part of the article on the basis of official domestic statistics the authors characterize features of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation under consideration. This is necessary for a well-founded interpretation of the results of an interterritorial comparative analysis of the effectiveness of the formation and use of tax revenues – an important component of the municipal budget.
The main part sets out methodological principles for calculating the generalizing indicator of the effectiveness of the realized tax potential of municipalities; data from the Federal State Statistics Service and the Federal Tax Service are used as sources of information.
Based on the methodology recommended by the authors, an interregional analysis of the effectiveness of the tax potential in 2013 (before sanctions and anti-sanctions measures were introduced in 2014) and 2019 (before the start of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020) was carried out.
The paper reveals interregional differences in the dynamics of the gross regional product (GRP), the intensity of structural shifts, the size and changes in tax revenues. The existing differences between the urban and rural areas of the Tambov region are studied in terms of the efficiency of using their tax potentials.
Based on the conducted statistical analysis, the authors come to the conclusion that in the ranking according to the generalizing indicator of the efficiency of the realized tax potential of municipalities of the Tambov region, there is a decrease in the positions of cities. At the same time, there is an increase in agricultural production in the region due to the implementation of Russia's food security strategy. In this regard, it is suggested that agriculture will stimulate the development of manufacturing industries in cities, which will result in the improve in their ranking.
The relevance of the study concerning evaluation problems and a specific comparative analysis of regional labor markets is explained by the growing importance of improving macroeconomic regulation in almost all CIS countries. The purpose of the work was to demonstrate the capabilities of spatial econometrics tools in the analysis of regional labor markets on the example of the Republic of Belarus. The authors consider methodological approaches to analyzing labor market indicators based on modern statistical and econometric tools.
The authors substantiated the necessity of using spatial econometrics methods for a more accurate assessment of the specific characteristics of the regions of the Republic of Belarus. A spatial autoregressive model was built using panel data. Here, integral block indicators were used as factors, covering only 40 primary characteristics of the region. This article briefly discusses the provisions used in spatial data analysis. It also presents the results of building a mixed model of spatial autoregression. For calculations, the authors used data for 2016–2019, which are freely available in the interactive business intelligence system for distribution of official statistical information of the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus (Belstat, 2021).
As predictors, the regression model included integral indicators of the regional labor market, weighted using a matrix of distances between the centers of regions. Here, were used forty initial indicators. According to the authors, the results of the study can have practical application when planning programs for the development of regional labor markets.
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS AND INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
The article analyzes the current situation in the world economy in 2020, caused by the energy crisis due to the failure of OPEC agreements, political conflicts, trade wars, and the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic and its socio-economic consequences have become the main cause of the global crisis.
The author conducted statistical analysis of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the balance of payments and the international investment position of Russia, which in aggregate form reveals the results of the country's foreign economic activity. The author analyzes country's external sector statistics summarizing the results of Russia's activities with the rest of the world in 2020 and identifies the trends of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the Russian economy and the results of the foreign economic activity of the Russian state. The paper analyzes in detail all the enlarged items of the balance of payments and the international investment position of the Russian Federation and quantifies the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020–2021 on them and also provides an overview of the development of the external sector of the Russian economy at the end of the year.
While analyzing the statistical data of the balance of payments and the international investment position of Russia in 2000–2021, a comparison is made with the current situation in the economy and foreign economic sphere in connection with the global crisis of 2008 and the introduction of international financial and economic sanctions after 2014. The author with regard to the effects of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic on the balance of payments and the international investment position of the Russian Federation in 2020–2021 substantiates a forecast of further prospects for the development of the foreign economic sector of the Russian economy in the medium term.
The article considers the characteristics of technological structures that reflect a certain level of development of productive forces and industrial relations, the science, and the emergence and development of new energy sources in Russia and some foreign countries taking the lead in the global innovation space. The main factors that determine the innovative performance of the state are identified: from laying the foundation for its creative basis (intellectual potential) to the production effectiveness and adoption intensity of innovations.
Based on a representative volume of information sources published in official statistical collections (both domestic and international) and some research findings, the authors assessed core indicators of the innovative development of Russia in comparison with foreign countries. The paper considers Russia's position in international rankings (the Global Innovation Index, the Networked Readiness Index and the Global Competitiveness Index).
Analysis results obtained using statistical methods allowed the authors to formulate several crucial conclusions regarding the development level of the technological structure of the Russian economy, its place in international rankings, and the global innovation space.
SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC STUDIES
In the article based on statistical methods the authors evaluateinterregional differences in seasonality of births in Russia and attempt toexplain the differences in the seasonality of the number of births in the regions of Russia. The relevance of these issues is explained by the need to monitor changes in demographic indicators following the implementation of national projects for the period up to the mid-2020s.
The authors considered the most fundamental results of some domestic and foreign studies on this subject. Some hypotheses regarding the causes of the seasonality of births were tested using econometric tools (based on official birth statistics in the regions of the Russian Federation for the period 2006–2020).The statistically significant factors that form the amplitude of seasonal fluctuations were the degree of urbanization, income and the climate based on the OLS model. The amplitude of fluctuations in births decreased with an increase in the level of urbanization (growth in the share of the urban population) and the population of the region. An increase in January temperature increased the amplitude of birth fluctuations. The positive impact of income on the amplitude of the fluctuation was explained by the active planning of the timing of childbearing in high-income regions, but further research was needed. Nutritional characteristics were found to be statistically insignificant factors. The number of marriages took a special place in the formation of the seasonality of births. On the whole for the Russian Federation, based on time series models, a cointegration relationship between the number of marriages and the number of births was found. This relationship had begun to weaken over the past five years.
The article reflects results of empirical analysis of sport incentives for working adults in Russia. The study uses data from a small, but according to the authors, representative sample (2208 employees) of Russian adults’ attitudes towards their health and quality of medical care in Russian Federation. The survey was initiated by the National Research University Higher School of Economics in 2017, before the start of COVID-19 pandemic, which for a certain period disrupted the employees’ measures promoting sports for their workers. However, the relevance of the study has been fully preserved. The authors not just give a snapshot of sport-promoting measures adopted by Russian enterprises, but also justify the methodology for statistical analysis of a healthy lifestyle policies provided by employers to their employees.
The paper reports the main parameters and the content of the population survey used in the study; describes main sport participation indicators and its’ determinants; presents estimates of factors attributed to sport participation among working adults. More specifically, the authors study the stimulating effect of two popular measures to encourage sport participation in Russian enterprises: providing access to sport infrastructure at the worksites and subsidies for practicing sport in sport centers.
Using descriptive and econometric analyzes, the authors investigate the association between sport-encouraging measures and working adults sporting activity, estimate statistical significance of this relationship. In order to concretize and deepen the empirical analysis of sport participation among working adults, the authors adjust their analyses by adding such respondents’ characteristics as gender, age, health status, smoking status, education, type of work and place of residency.
The study shows that probability of sport participation is much higher for those who has access to sport infrastructure at their worksites (for both men and women). However, employers’ subsidies for sport activity outside working places is not associated with any increase in the probability of doing sports.
IN THE COURSE OF DISCUSSION
The article present argument for using statistical methods, which evaluate factors that contribute to or, on the contrary, hinder the institutional transformation of entrepreneurship in Russia.
The authors analyzed materials of the sociological survey of large and medium-sized enterprises carried out in 2019 through questionnaires administered to company executives based on a sample of economic entities in Moscow and Moscow region. A set of statistical data from a survey of company executives was formed for two groups of enterprises, depending on the scale of production. They were differentiated according to the main factors of sustainable development.Using the χ2 criterion, the degree of similarity of these populations and their correspondence to one type of distribution was revealed. The results of the survey of company executives showed that the key factors for the sustainable functioning of enterprises and their further development are: the availability of new technologies for implementation in production, the degree of personnel qualification, as well as the extent to which specialists from other commercial structures are involved in the work. At the same time, the first indicated factors which are determinantsof any group of economic entities, regardless of the scale of entrepreneurial activity. A significant difference in the opinions of the company executives of large and medium-sized enterprises is observed in the answers to the question about the sources of funds for doing business.
Evaluation of negative-impact factors of crisis phenomena is differentiated depending on the scale of production using various criteria. Thus, when using White's t-test, no fundamental differences were found between the estimates of the company executivesof economic entities that are in different groups in terms of the scale of production activities. As for the positive factors, where all observations are pairwise conjugated, the Wilcoxon test was used, which indicates that entrepreneurs equally assess the degree of influence of negative and positive causes of the crisis on business. Based on empirical analysis, was confirmed the hypothesis about determining factors influencing the current situation with business. According to entrepreneurs, such factors are high taxes and the lack of working capital.
Amid a spiraling crisis and import substitution, continuous monitoring of both weaknesses and strengths of the development of large and medium enterprises allows to identify key predictors that contribute to the most efficient functioning of such enterprises.
SCIENCE AND EDUCATION
The article contains an overview of the reports submitted at the International Scientific and Practical Conference «Statistical Assessments of Sustainable Development», held on January 27–28, 2022 at the Saint Petersburg State University of Economics (UNECON). Of the 123 announced reports, more than 70 were heard in plenary and breakout sessions. They addressed a wide range of issues, both theoretical and applied.
Speakers noted that the list of indicators for achieving sustainable development goals is still in progress and requires improvement. It is necessary to ensure the adequacy of indicators for the tasks set, cohesion of methods of information gathering, international comparability of data, and their availability to a wide range of users. The speakers also touched upon monitoring issues associated with achieving sustainable development goals.
Conference participants discussed application of statistical and econometric methods for solving specific problems, formulated proposals for improving the methodology of analysis and establishing generalizing characteristics of sustainable development. Theoretical and practical issues of using statistical and econometric methods and models are considered in the context of forecasting target indicators of strategic planning, modelling and forecasting of individual socio-economic phenomena and processes, and the development of individual countries or regions.
A significant portion of reports focused on analyzing the achievement of specific sustainable development goals, studying various characteristics of the economy and society, identifying patterns that arise when progressing toward the target goals. The papers also discussed ESG business transformation, modelling of a circular economy, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on sustainable development, the functioning of health care and family sustainability.
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