STATISTICAL METHODS IN ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING
The article substantiates the need to improve the system of indicators that meet the requirements of market participants and potential investors in obtaining reliable and comprehensive statistical information on the state and development prospects of the Russian stock market (SM).
The analysis of the current state of statistical monitoring of the Russian SM in terms of the misuse of insider information and manipulation of the financial market is carried out, statistical indicators for assessing stock assets and market indices are considered, and the main indicators of volatility and investment indicators related to the financial and economic characteristics of issuing companies are analyzed. According to the author, it is necessary to improve the quality of information on the value of stock assets and stock indices. To accomplish this task, it is proposed to use indicators that can adequately assess the current and forecast value of issuing companies and the degree of manipulation of their market quotations.
The author proposes a method of calculating the investment indicator by dividing the price of the stock by its moving average profit for the previous time period equal to the economic cycle. Based on the factual material of the US and Russian stock markets, statistics of the values of this investment indicator, it is shown that it is possible to assess the adequate current and forecast value of stock assets, as well as the degree of their manipulation.
The calculated investment indicator shows the adequacy of the market value of companies to their fundamental financial and economic characteristics. The volatility of this indicator for a short period of time is a signal of a possible manipulation with the prices of this stock asset. Therefore, this investment indicator can become an important supplement to the existing system of statistical indicators on the state and development of the Russian SM.
SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC STUDIES
The article evaluates the influence of special populations (convicts sentenced to imprisonment, military and other numerical groups, statistical records of which are specific) on indicators of sex and age structure of the population of urban and municipal districts of Russia.
The introductory part of the article considers the features of domestic demographic statistics in relation to the analyzed groups of the population, which emphasizes the relevance of the problem under consideration. Then, it describes the methodological foundations of the author's research. It is indicated that the analysis was carried out based on data from the 2010 All-Russia Population Census and information from territorial bodies of state statistics for 2019–2020 on the age and sex composition of the population, as well as data from open sources on the Internet.
In the main body of the article, the author argues that the peculiarities of accounting for the population groups under consideration most strongly distort the data on the age and sex structure of the population in the youngest age groups, and their influence to the greatest extent affects the reliability of data on the population of municipalities with a small number of residents. In these municipalities, the share of special populations in the total population is the most significant and may exceed 10% of its total population (but even with a smaller share of the considered population group in the total population, the level of distortion of data by gender and age groups can be significant).
Thus, the calculations show the scale of distortions (in the intercensal period) in the age structure of the population of municipalities in the young and middle age due to the specifics of accounting for the migration of these population groups.
IN THE COURSE OF DISCUSSION
The paper substantiates possibilities for using alternative tools for calculating the consumer price index – a topical research subject in Russian economic and statistical science. One of the frequently mentioned solutions is using data arrays from information systems – big data. While analyzing the existing methodological and statistical information foundations for measuring the consumer price index in of- ficial Russian statistics, the authors consider both the advantages and disadvantages of the two main options for using big data: collecting information on the Internet (web scraping) and using data from electronic fiscal documents of cash registers (online cash registers).
Several ways to increase the information content and quality of measuring inflation using big data collected via the Internet and on- line cash register system are discussed. It is noted that they have disadvantages (first and foremost, non-integration with the SNA-based macroeconomic calculations). In this regard, it is emphasized that optimism about the transition to fully automated price monitoring tools in the coming years should be considered excessive. The author's position is that soon big data can serve as complements rather than substitutes for traditional price collection methods. It just presupposes the need for further empirical studies of transaction prices, which are possible based on online checkout technology, which opens a fundamentally new format of statistical observation – not the supply prices at which goods and services are offered for sale, but the demand prices.
SCIENCE AND EDUCATION
The article presents the results of the author's study of the content of Russian science development programs and their implementation, which was carried out based on official statistics. The author emphasizes that the creation of the National Project «Science and Univer- sities» has become a logical development and an update of two national projects – «Science» and «Education» – that conformed with the objectives of the Presidential Executive Order on Russia’s national development goals through 2030.
The paper describes the information and statistical support for the development and assessment of the implementation of state pro- grams for the development of Russian science. The author considers the lists of target indicators of the National Project «Science and Universities» and its four federal projects «Research Leadership», «Infrastructure», «Personnel», «Integration» generated and approved by the directives and orders of the Minobrnauki of Russia (Ministry of Education and Science of Russia) and Rosstat (Federal State Statistics Service).
Considerable attention is given to the international comparative analysis of the most significant indicators reflecting the status of science in the country, including the amount of investment in science, the assessment of the scale of state support for scientific activities in different countries, which is necessary for transferring the Russian economy to an innovative path of development. In this regard, the necessity of expanding and improving statistical observation is substantiated by conducting a range of additional thematic questionnaires and surveys of scientific and educational organizations engaged in research and development.
This is a review article examining scientific publications of 2020–2021 on statistical studies of the level and dynamics of the well-being of the Russian population. The author does not discuss or comment on the results of relevant studies and research but systematizes the subject of the works. He also attempts to identify development trends in contemporary statistical studies in this area.
The total number of articles related to statistics isn’t decreasing but even slightly growing. Most of them concern the use of statistical data and well-known methods of statistical analysis within specific economic research. The review includes articles on the interpretation of various indicators used for statistical assessment of well-being and comparison of related results, valuation of «shadow» incomes, the results of international, subnational and dynamic comparisons, statistical analysis of the level of well-being of specific groups of the population. The primary data sources most frequently used for conducting welfare research are indicated. The review also lists the core Russian jour- nals that regularly publish articles on statistical topics and foreign journals in which Russian researchers published their papers during the period under review. The author specifically highlights the positive role of the journal «Voprosy Statistiki».
Unfortunately, articles on the development of statistical methodology are rarely published. In other words, most of the works are not about the development of statistics as an independent branch of science but rather about the application of well-known statistical methods in the context of the development of other fields.
The author concludes that the revealed trend potentially weakens the position of domestic statistics amidst the «data revolution» and the increasing competition with other scientific disciplines. Finally, the paper formulates a number of questions, the consideration of which, according to the author, would help Russian statistics «find its place».
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS AND INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
The article presents the results of the study on improving the methodology for measuring poverty and extreme poverty in accordance with the fundamental UN document – the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The author argues his position that when assessing the achievement of targets for the eradication of extreme poverty within the framework of achieving Goal 1 (SDG 1) at the national level, one should not be guided by the average threshold value of extreme poverty for all countries. It is necessary to focus on the gross national income (GNI) per capita, an indicator developed by the World Bank (according to the Atlas method).
For the first time, a comparative analysis of the interpretations of SDG 1 by Russian and European researchers, as well as experts of international organizations is carried out, and threshold values of global poverty for groups of countries with different levels of GNI per capita are analyzed. It allows us to identify the main problem of monitoring the eradication of extreme poverty in Russia: the low information content of data on socio-demographic groups experiencing extreme poverty, which, in turn, hinders the formation of effective public policy measures to reduce poverty and eradicate extreme poverty.
The paper shows that ignoring the indicator of extreme poverty, calculated depending on the size of GNI per capita using the Atlas method, can lead to erroneous conclusions in the Voluntary National Review of the Russian Federation on achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals. The author proposes to select indicators of global extreme poverty in accordance with the level of socio-economic development of Russia and to assess the eradication of extreme poverty, taking them into account on a par with the national poverty line. In this context, the author draws attention to inaccuracies in domestic publications related to the interpretation of the concept of «extreme poverty», which can lead to distortion of estimates.
FROM THE EDITORIAL MAIL
The article explores the issues of statistical accounting of intellectual property products (IPP) when performing calculations for the whole country under current conditions. The paper covers the influence of IPP accounting features on the assessment of indicators and characterizes the corresponding methodological problems. In particular, the growing role of globalization in economic activity, the specifics of accounting for licenses, the calculation of indicators of the national economy of Russia. The paper discusses the views of national accounts experts on the development of the IPPs accounting methodology.
The author proposes directions for improving the analysis of the increasing role of innovations in modern conditions, including using new indicators that have not been used previously. The article analyses characteristics of multinational enterprises affecting the adequacy valuation of fixed capital accumulation and balance sheets of assets and liabilities, which ultimately define the production measure of gross domestic product (GDP).
As a result of the study, the author formulated individual proposals for improving the accounting of IPP involving a wide range of ex- perts in macroeconomics, which is essential for harmonizing GDP and balance sheets reflecting cross-country flows related to goods and services, including intellectual property products and research and development amidst globalization.
This article is based on documents and materials on national accounts, globalization, accounting for intellectual property products and research and development.
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)