ISSUES OF METHODOLOGY
The relevance of the article stems from the ongoing transition of national statistical offices to the implementation of the new international macroeconomic accounting standard, SNA 2025. This standard defines modern approaches to measuring economic activity in the context of globalization and digitalization and incorporates assessments of well‑being and sustainability.
The subject of the paper is the set of innovations introduced in the latest version of the System of National Accounts, examined through comparison with the SNA 2008.
The purpose of the article is to identify and systematize the key features of the new methodology for compiling national accounts. The main objectives include describing the conceptual and structural changes in the SNA 2025; clarifying the meaning of newly introduced terms; refining existing definitions; and characterizing the revisions to classifications, economic transactions, production boundaries, and the accounting framework for the household sector, among others.
This first part of the article (published in this issue) examines the new conceptual approaches adopted in the SNA 2025 and presents the hierarchical structure of the system of national accounts, showing the coverage of transactions within each of its subsystems. Besides, attention is given to changes in the structure of the macroeconomic standard’s text; newly introduced terms and account names are identified. Also, revisions concerning the system of statistical units are examined; and refinements in the recording of both non‑financial and financial assets are outlined. Illustrative examples are provided to facilitate understanding of the innovations.
Since no official Russian edition of the SNA 2025 is currently available, the new concepts and terms are presented in the author’s trans‑ lation. The use of these terms in Russian in official statistical practice may be approved following expert review by scholars and specialists in the field of statistics.
MATHEMATICAL AND STATISTICAL METHODS IN ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING
The paper proposes a discrete wavelet transform (DWT) method and its modifications that expand existing approaches in analyzing business cycles and identification of turning points as well as practice of their application. The purpose of the work is to test DWT method and assess the effectiveness of its implementation in applied analysis, aimed at developing the indicator approach; as well as at identification of he business cycle turning points. The empirical basis of the study was the results of surveys of business activity by the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), which included estimates of about 25,000 respondents in the main basic sectors of the Russian economy in 2013–2024.
As a result of applying a maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) with the LA8 Daubechies filter, we are developing a new composite indicator – the Business Confidence Index (BCI) for the first time in Russian statistical practice. The constructed index is used to identify turning points of the business cycle.
The results of the study show a predominantly synchronous relationship between short‑term growth cycles in the BCI time series and the reference index of physical volume of GDP. It shows a high degree of relevance of the method for constructing nonparametric composite indicators. The proposed approach made it possible to identify 8 turning points in the BCI dynamics from 2017 to 2024. However, the deviations of these points from the peaks and troughs identified in the dynamics of the GDP index of physical volume are no more than one quarter. After testing over 30 wavelet filters, we selected the bior2.2 filter as the best for turning point identification.
STATISTICS IN SOCIO-ECONOMIC STUDIES
The paper examines changes in the economic affordability of cigarettes in Russian regions in 2011–2023. Using fixed‑effects models, it estimates the impact of prices, incomes, and tobacco affordability (the ratio of per capita income to cigarette price), on three indicators: retail sales of cigarettes per capita, adult population spending on tobacco products, and the share of these expenditures in household consumer spending. The research identifies an increase in cigarette sales in 2022–2023 after a long‑term decline in these consumption in 2011–2021, which coincides with improved affordability of cigarettes. A 1% decrease in cigarette affordability leads to a 0.28% increase in per capita tobacco expenditures and a 0.57% rise in their share of household consumption spending. The low‑price elasticity of cigarette sales with respect to affordability (0.36) suggests that the population's primary adjustment mechanism to decreased affordability is not a reduction in consumption, but rather a shift in purchasing behavior such as switching to cheaper brands, seeking out familiar products at retail outlets with lower prices. The results highlight the need for regular indexation of tobacco excise taxes and increase in the minimum cigarette price, ensuring they outpace growth in population income.
The article presents the results of a study of the Russian industrial software market. The relevance of the topic stems from the significance of this segment for technological sovereignty and the comprehensive digitalization of industrial sectors and the economy as a whole.
The aim of the study was to collect and analyze primary data refiecting the positions, priorities, and assessments of software development companies. Conceptual framework, the system of indicators was created and original tools for a pilot survey were developed to study the key areas of domestic industrial software development. As a result, an analysis of the data obtained from more than 60 Russian organizations – developers of various classes of industrial software – was conducted.
The results of the pilot survey revealed a clear orientation of the vast majority of developers toward the domestic market. Companies highlight the development of the functionality of created solutions and products to meet the specifics of Russian customers, and the improvement of sales, promotion, and implementation channels for their products in the domestic market as key strategic priorities.
According to the authors, the conducted research has significant scientific and practical value. The results obtained do not exhaust the entire range of issues; they form a theoretical and methodological basis for the analysis of the industrial software market. The high dynamics of this market, manifested in the emergence of new products, changes in the composition of players and government support measures, necessitates further research taking into account the positions of developers, integrators, and end users.
SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC STUDIES
The study focuses on the microcensus and its role as a key source of data for assessing the effectiveness of demographic policy in the field of fertility.
The authors examine the specifics of a microcensus, which combines a wide range of structural issues, compared to a total population census, with a representative sample that allows the use of data at the level of constituent entities of the Russian Federation, with the allocation of urban and rural populations, and large municipalities. The increasing importance of the microcensus is substantiated in the context of increasing attention to socio‑demographic policy and the implementation of national projects in Russia.
The article analyzes the potential of using microcensus data to assess the effectiveness of implemented measures. The authors provide examples of the practical application of statistical indicators characterizing the reproductive behavior of the population, and confirm the possibility of identifying pressing issues that require special attention when developing demographic policy. They particularly emphasize the need to address the shortage of scientific publications that systematically examine the analytical capabilities of microcensuses.
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
This article presents the results of cross‑country comparisons of average monthly wages and monetary income in nine of the eleven countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States for 2011–2024. The authors compare two different approaches, namely, one based on nominal exchange rates of national currencies and the other based on purchasing power parity, developed within the framework of the International Comparison Program. Comparing the estimates, obtained within these two approaches provides additional analytical information, as it demonstrates how adjusting for highly volatile exchange rate fiuctuations (including during the external shocks of 2014 and 2022–2024) changes the relative positions of countries and more accurately characterizes cross‑country differences in living standards in the post‑Soviet space.
To conduct the comparisons, the authors accumulated information from national statistical agencies, the CIS Statistical Committee, and the World Bank and constructed series of relative indicators for average monthly accruedwages andaverage per capita monetary income. The analysis shows that using exchange rates revaluates wage and income fiuctuations of these indicators. Short‑term fiuctuations, associated with market‑driven exchange rate fiuctuations, are smoothed out when adjusting for purchasing power parity (PPP) indicators. Comparison of these indicators by PPP in dynamics, based on exchange rates, show more sustainable growth both in wages and per capita income across all countries analyzed including during the period of sanctions pressure and economic turbulence in 2022–2024. It also indicates the absence of significant convergence in living standards among CIS countries over the observed period.
For years, the output growth has been higher than that of input, thanks to the efficient use of workforce and material resources. This dynamic is expressed in statistics through productivity measured as output per unit of input. Official statistics widely use labor productivity and calculate the productivity of capital and material inputs separately. These measures constitute single‑factor or partial productivity. The rationale of the multi‑factor productivity (MFP) is that it refiects overall production efficiency, which cannot be explained by changes in labor and capital inputs.
In economic research, the concept of total factor productivity (TFP) based on production functions has wider application. The paper explores the differences between TFP and MFP and explains why statisticians favor MFP.
The paper presents the case of construction of MFP based on preliminary calculation with the data for the manufacturing sector of Kazakhstan. It identifies the sources and methods of constructing MFP in the framework of official statistics. The paper has practical significance for government authorities and industrial policy researchers.
PAGES OF HISTORY
The relevance of the article is due to the continuing need for impartial statistical data to study the economy of pre‑revolutionary Russia and the NEP period, as well as the need to overcome ideological stereotypes that have long hampered historical and economic research.
The article examines the monograph of the prominent Russian economist L.B. Kafenhaus (1885–1940) «The Evolution of Industrial Production», which was returned to scientific circulation in 1994 after a long period of oblivion associated with the arrest and exile of the scientist in the 1930s. The analyzed work contributes to solving the problem of limited statistical data for the period from 1855 to 1927, and to discussion of the economic development of pre‑revolutionary Russia.
The article also analyzes other works of L.B. Kafenhaus and their infiuence on economic thought, especially in terms of development of industrial statistics methods, analysis of cyclical fiuctuations and long‑term dynamics of industrial development. The article presents the possibilities of using statistical arrays by L.B. Kafenhaus for business companies in studying the history of entrepreneurship.
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)






























