STATISTICAL METHODS IN THE STUDY OF SOCIAL PROCESSES
In this article, the author uses international statistics and statistical methods to highlight the challenges posed by the economic consequences of demographic shifts taking place in the world. The paper analyzes multidirectional processes in population growth in developed and developing economies, reduction of the world’s population growth rates, further aging of the population, and increase of demographic burden on the working age population. Is addressed the potential for changing the trajectory of global development in connection with the world demographic situation. The paper presents a new global typology of demographic development by the IMF and the World Bank. It examines possibilities for attaining longevity dividends in the context of the population aging amid digital transformation under a new typology. There is an analysis of various aspects of aging, both from the standpoint of increasing pressure on the pension systems and social welfare and considering the emerging silver economy opportunities, which creates real growth prospects and new jobs. Are discussed direct and indirect effects of aging, contributing to the creation of longevity dividends. The paper clarifies the role of personal robotics and the use of digital technologies in the «scaling» of care for the elderly and the place of retirement communities in the development of software and hardware, creating economic opportunities for inventors and innovators. The author explores various aspects of retaining older workers in the labor force and their effective use. The objective of the study is to identify the most significant components of the policy of economy adaptation to demographic changes. The article systemizes the following drivers of tackling demographic imbalances: international labor migration; human development; bridging the gender gap; reducing inequality; poverty reduction; improvement of social elevators; increasing youth employment.
The article highlights first the historical background: two long-term trends have most strongly influenced the development of the non-profit sector throughout its millennial history. Ап analysis of the French civil society nowadays is made on the basis of the System of national accounts concept using the most recent statistics on this sector ignored by the statistical system two decades ago. The number, size and human resources of civil society organizations (CSOs) are analysed first, then their financial resources by public and private origin and their economic contribution and social impact . The final part of the research deals with recent1 trends and issues. The evolution of the French non-profit sector during the Millennium decade is outlined. Then focuses on the impact of the financial, economic and social crisis on the French third sector is highlighted. The sharing of educational, health and social services provision between the state, the local governments and the civil society obviously depends on functions that have been devolved to local governments as well as on the level of externalization or subcontracting which authorities consider to be relevant. Recourse to the non-profit sector makes it possible to reduce public employment, which is very high in France. Grass-roots associations provide local services adapted to the local population through voluntary work. That is the reason why the central and local governments and social security affords an almost total financing to the welfare CSOs and a partial financing to the others while the public sector regulates the CSOs and guarantees universal access to the services provided as well as the equal treatment of all users. The whole civil society sector associations and foundations is currently looking for its place in the public sphere, either in close partnership with public authorities or within the social and solidarity economy with the cooperatives and the mutual societies. Civil society organizations have demonstrated their ability to respond to the new needs of a more diverse population, and they have proved their resilience during less favourable times.
IN THE COURSE OF DISCUSSION
This article was written to discuss the reliability and independence of statistics, which have been questioned by various media outlets. The author was also impressed by Mikhail Vladimirovich Karmanov’s article «Statistics as an Indicator of Maturity of the Authority», which was published in the journal «Voprosy Statistiki» in response to some unsubstantiated claims about almost conscious distortions and misrepresentation of the real situation by Rosstat. The author of this article is one of those professional statisticians whose work is tarnished by publications, statements, and comments in the media. By the nature of his professional activity and being for many years the head of the Rosstat territorial statistical office, the author has a profound knowledge of the principles governing international statistical activities, in particular, scientific principles and professional, ethical norms. The article addresses issues associated with sharing own experiences and learning from the best foreign practices of various countries and international organizations. The author discusses the existing issues and challenges and gives his own opinion on how to solve them. Special attention is given to the prestige of statistics as an occupation, training, and statistical education. The article is written using examples from many years of practical experience, historical and cultural examples, and by its emotional presentation of material invites to further discussion of issues and challenges in statistics.
The article examines the problems of estimating the life expectancy in the older age group under the conditions of incomplete and inaccurate mortality statistics. In the introductory part of the article, the author addresses the need to improve statistics methodology, that focuses on increasing the accuracy of data on mortality and life expectancy for older age groups of the population. In the main part of the article, the author proposes to use the regression dependence between life expectancy and mortality rate at the beginning of the open-ended age interval in addition to the traditional methods (standard life tables, methods of Horiuchi-Coale and Mitra). The proposed two regression models show good accuracy on both cohort and calendar data. They were tested on the Human Mortality Database (HMD) international mortality database and showed a higher accuracy of the proposed method compared with the life tables and the extrapolation method. At the same time, the regression method is slightly inferior in accuracy to the methods of Horiuchi-Coale, and Mitra but is not as unstable as the Mitra method. Furthermore, the proposed method showed greater accuracy, in comparison with the known alternative methods, on high life expectancy data. The recommended method is appropriate when traditional methods cannot be applied due to the lack of necessary data (for example, population growth rate or average age of the population in the open-ended age group) or violation of the assumption of a stable age structure of the population that was used in developing methods Coale and Mitra. Life expectancy estimates for the elderly using regression models are weakly correlated with alternative estimates using Horiuchi-Coale, and Mitra approaches. It indicates that the recommended in this article models can be used together with the known models in developing methods for reducing the variance of life expectancy estimates.
REGIONAL STATISTICS
In this article, the author examines the development of the industry that has traditionally had its unique place in the economy of the Saratov region that is agriculture. This sector is one of the most important in the economy; it decisively affects the economic, political, and social situation in the region. The introduction demonstrates the relevance of a specific economic and statistical analysis of agricultural production at the regional level, that results from the ongoing economic transformations, economic sanctions of several Western countries and counter-sanctions. Furthermore, the article explores content-related questions that are the subject of economic and statistical analysis of the regional level, such as: the place of agriculture in the economy, the development of crop growing and animal husbandry. Special attention is paid to a comparative analysis of the dynamics of agricultural production by types of farms. There are significant structural differences in agricultural production in the region under review and the Russian Federation in general. The author emphasizes that the Saratov region’s identifying feature is the high share of peasant (farm) households in the total agricultural output in comparison with the average all-Russian level. The article concludes that regional characteristics, along with issues, challenges, and trends identified using statistical methodology, allow for taking specific action for improving regional and national agrarian policy.
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
The article addresses a variety of approaches to compiling indicators for development of the small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) sector in Russia and some developed economies and developing economies. A point of emphasis is various identification criteria for SME attributed to objective institutional characteristics of the countries, differences in economic structure, and objectives of government policy. The study aims at comparing SME sector development levels in Russia and other countries to identify best practices and pinpoint target settings (lay down guidelines) for entrepreneurship policymaking. The article discusses the criteria used in different countries to define small and medium-sized enterprises. It outlines key challenges related to using cross-cutting criteria developed by international organizations. The paper suggests adjustments to defining the role of the SME sector in the Russian economy. The authors reveal differences between the way international organizations and Russian official statistics present and report statistics; this concerns the coverage of subjects of statistical observation that are defined as small and medium-sized enterprises. International comparisons refer to the small and medium-sized enterprises in the business sector (that is, without the banking sector and the public sector), while in Russia they usually refer to official statistics for the entire economy. According to the authors, when using the valid approach, the role of small and medium-sized enterprises in the Russian economy is comparable with the corresponding values for the large countries with capital-intensive industries. Small and medium-sized entrepreneurship in Russia differs from that in developed countries in the ratio of private and public sectors, the export potential of small firms, the prevalence of technology startups and the ratio of open and shadow economic activities. The article emphasizes the importance of analyzing the role of small and medium-sized enterprises in the economy when making management decisions of a strategic nature. The SME sector performs many important socio-economic functions, including job creation and employment, the contribution to value-added production and exports, economic growth and increased competitiveness of the economy, personalized customer satisfaction, the creation of new industries and economic diversification.
SCIENCE AND EDUCATION
CHRONICLES OF THE JOURNAL
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)