STATISTICAL METHODS IN ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL PROCESSES
ORGANIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF STATE STATISTICS
This article reviews three groups of questions: objectives placed before the Russian official statistics by the Digital Economy program; basic characteristics of the Big Data in terms of data collection theory and design; concept of smart statistics. The article addresses key issue of understanding Big Data as «organic data» that are primary digital records kept in real time by software and technology without human intervention. The use of Big Data in official statistics leads to development of the new type of continuous statistical observation. First and foremost, digital nature of Big Data and its basic characteristics, including as microdata, provide new possibilities for measuring phenomenon and processes, as well as determine the specific nature of observation errors that occur when Big Data are generated. In general, the organization and process of generating Big Data are viewed by the author as the main type of statistical observation in the future. In the heart of the concept of smart statistics lays direct incorporation of statistical observation into the system of primary digital records followed by the straight through automatic data processing up to compiling statistical aggregates. The approaches discussed in this article are linked to objectives placed before the Russian official statistics by the Digital Economy program.
REGIONAL STATISTICS
This article presents research of factors of investment attractiveness of the Kaluga region - a regional leader in formation of appealing investment climate for foreign investors and setting up industrial technological parks. The indicators of the National Investment Climate Ranking that has been used since 2016 are discussed with regard to their content and structure. The author argues that there is a need for extending the content-related components of the Ranking by adding questions of the influence of investment policy of the region on its socioeconomic development to the major focus areas. The author has developed a methodology for calculating an integrated investment climate indicator that implements not only the basic idea of the need for additional reviewing factors of investment climate, namely, development potential of the region, performance of state administrative bodies and businesses, but also the basic requirements for monitoring - comparability of quantitative estimates over time and interregional comparability of the indicators in question. Analysis of the statistical information supports the author’s conclusion that effectiveness of investment policy should be assessed not only by the results achieved by the investors, but also by the socio-economic development of the studied constituent entity.
This article reviews the research of interregional differences in the level and quality of live in the regions of the Privolzhsky (Volga) Federal District (PFD). The regions of the district were ranked based on the integral estimation of quality of life of the population, leaders and outsiders were designated. Analysis of skewness coefficients of selected components of integral index revealed the multifaceted nature of disparities in well-being and quality of life within the regions of the PFD. Measurements of this indicator over time showed that there has been a common trend to slow down the growth of the well-being of the population, and in many territories the situation is characterized by stagnation and decline. In general, in the next years these trends may, in the authors’ opinion, continue. In this regard, estimating quantity characteristics of changes in some components of the well-being and quality of life in every region, reasons for the observed shifts are important in order to come up with definite solutions on unwinding of imbalances in socio-economic development of selected territories.
This article focuses on comparative analysis of child benefits paid in Russia at the regional level. The research is based on methods widely used by Alfred Kahn, Sheila Kamerman, John Ditch, Jonathan Bradshaw et al. for comparative analysis of child benefit systems in different countries. Although method of model families is not free from some weaknesses (because it gives information on benefits that families should receive rather than information on benefits that they actually get) still it provides recent data on characteristics, similarities and differences of child benefit systems of Russian regions. Previously child benefit packages in Russia were analyzed by several researches - Lilia Ovcharova, Daria Popova, etc. The author contributed through conducting statistical study of сhild benefit packages paid at the regional level. These packages include all transfers targeted at families with children (except of lump-sum benefits which do not significantly affect family welfare). It is stated that model families differ in earnings level and demographic structure (couples or single mothers, with different number of children). The article comments on quantitative characteristics of child benefit packages for a set of model families from 37 regions. Comparative analysis of the level of child benefits (in absolute terms as well as to the minimum subsistence level and average wage) allows to determine which types of families are first to gain from regional child benefits systems and which remain vulnerable to the risk of poverty.
IN THE COURSE OF DISCUSSION
This article analyzes key provisions of international recommendations «SERIEE. Environmental Protection Expenditure Accounts - Compilation Guide (Methods and nomenclatures)» (hereinafter referred to as the SERIEE manual) concerning modern requirements to statistics of natural resources and environmental management. This document was prepared by the European Commission and Eurostat in 2002; SERIEE fully stands for European system for the collection of economic information on the environment (the abbreviation SERIEE is based on the name in French: le Systeme europeen pour le rassemblement d informations economiques sur l’environnement).The 2002 SERIEE manual is based on the initial versions of the integrated System of Environmental and Economic Accounting, SEEA, which, in turn, is a set of the SNA (SNA-SEEA) satellite accounts. The authors believe that despite the fact that in 2012 the UN Statistical Commission adopted international standard in the form of the SEEA Central Framework (CF SEEA-2012), the 2002 SERIEE manual without doubt continues to be an interesting international guideline both methodologically and organizationally. It allows to significantly improve the process of conducting summary valuations and long- term planning of environmental measures based on macroeconomic aggregates. The authors reviewed and assessed the system of five tables of consolidated accounts, designated as B, B1, A, C and C1, presented in the manual. This is done within the general system of environmental protection expenditure accounts (EPEA) that provides consistent, coherent, comprehensive and detailed reflection of environmental costs at the macrostatistical level - from production and consumption to financing. In other words, the characteristic of the different operations with the use of the main aggregates of the SNA-SEEA and EPEA, such as output, intermediate consumption, value added, income, final consumption, savings, export, import, etc. The paper reveals the authors’ interpretation of the fundamental structural unit of SNS-SEEA/EPEA - total national costs of environment protection. The paper considers not only principles and methods that are common for the national accounting, but also the specific features related to recording environmental protection by production and consumption of the relevant goods (products) and services. In particular, the authors examined the macro level characteristics of the so-called connected and adapted products (eco-oriented and eco-adaptive goods). The article analyses specific features related to recording general taxation and subsidies, and the so-called earmarked (related) taxes, fees and charges, aimed at improving environmental protection and streamlining of environmental management. It is noted that all of the abovementioned operations are recorded not only by institutional sectors of economy and kinds of activity, but also by specialist, secondary and ancillary producers, which is a conceptual and indispensable requirement for implementation of the SNA-SEEA.
At the end of the article there are brief conclusions and recommendations concerning prompt elimination of the existing defects and possible adapted use of best practices in this sphere.
The article presents the authors’ views on using «Big Data» to gain new information on population and to study various social and economic phenomena and processes on its basis. As the foreign experience clearly demonstrates, with the development of information industry and the ubiquitous mobile communications penetration, one of the most promising sources of «Big Data» in terms of population coverage (using population as an object of statistical observation) and efficiency in obtaining information on it, is data from mobile operators. The paper also notes Russian experience in this field, especially since 2014, when Russia managed to implement the «Geoanalysis» project on using data from mobile operators in managerial activities of the Moscow Government. The authors outline the history and development of the new digital data source for population statistics, which is based on technical data of cellular networks. The paper covers baselines to Russian innovation methodological developments and algorithms for converting radio frequency events from base stations of mobile operators into statistical indicators of number, density and dynamics of population movements with full coverage of study area and high level of space- time specification. This article pays particular attention to issues concerning protection of subscribers’ personal data, legality of collecting and processing the information received from mobile operators in accordance with the legislation of the Russian Federation. The authors thoroughly examined directions for applying statistical indicators, based on data from mobile operators, in the field of economy, trade, culture, transport modeling, urban planning and management.
PAGES OF HISTORY
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)