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Vol 28, No 1 (2021)
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DEVELOPMENT OF STATE STATISTICS

5-17 1340
Abstract

The article discusses issues related to the use of data from administrative registration records of the population in the context of creating a unified register of the population of Russia and conducting the All-Russia population census in 2021. When choosing the main source for the initial filling of the register, it is assumed that the information it contains is adequate for the problem to be solved. This is important to predict the quality of population statistics based on the register and future census materials.

For the first time, the indicators of the routine statistical report of the FMS of Russia and the Main Directorate of Migration (MDM) are analyzed, which by their nature are close to some basic indicators of population statistics published by Rosstat. Data on the stock of registered resident population, statistics of registration (and/or deregistration) of the population at/ from the place of residence in connection with migration or birth, and death, in theory, can be compared with similar data from Rosstat. This administrative data is available in the routine statistical report of the MDM of the Ministry of Internal Affairs the «Form -1 RD». The needed indicators of Form 1-RD either were present in the report only in selected years or were not disaggregated sufficiently. It limited their comparability with Rosstat data, especially concerning the interregional migration.

In many regions, population size estimates made annually by Rosstat, greatly differ from the administrative data on the stock of population registered at the place of residence. Moreover, the discrepancies can be both upward and downward. For example, the size of the «de-jure» population of Moscow was almost 3 million less than the estimates of Rosstat, while in many regions it was much larger, and this was not related to the methodology of migrant flows data collection. The number of births and the number of persons registered at a place of residence by birth, on average in Russia was similar, however, there were large discrepancies across the regions. The most considerable differences were between the statistics of deaths and information on people deregistered in connection with death (in 2015-2019, Rosstat data exceeded the registration data by almost 20%).

The study allowed us to conclude that firstly it is necessary to assess the data quality before using it for population register establishment in the future, as well as for the needs of the population census in 2021. The article provides a brief historical background on the initiatives related to the creation of a population register in the USSR and the Russian Federation; it is concluded that the process was overly long and many opportunities were missed to improve demographic statistics.

REGIONAL STATISTICS

18-27 654
Abstract

In this article, in the form of publication, are presented key study findings that cover both methodological issues of measurement and comprehensive analysis of regional labor productivity, along with extended formulations of study results. Based on the experience of domestic and foreign statisticians, the author substantiates the system of regional labour productivity indicators required for its integrated assessment. In the author’s opinion, this system is needed in a formation of a single coordinated approach to the calculation of labour productivity from the perspective of branches, enterprises, and constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

The introduction argues for the relevance of the issues related to measuring regional labour productivity, which is necessary to evaluate the progress of the Federal Project “Systemic Measures to Improve Labor Productivity” implemented under the national project “Labor Productivity and Employment Support”.

The author justifies the solution to the problem of clustering regions by regional labour productivity indicator using a combined approach, which explains the trends in the economic development of the regions of Russia in the selected clusters.

The final part of the article concludes that the study is relevant in assessing the factors of regional labour productivity needed to identify growth reserves or to prevent stagnation in economic development, measured, in particular, by means of a basic indicator of the economic production efficiency in constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

28-37 648
Abstract

The uneven distribution of natural resources on the territory of Russia and the limited financial capabilities of the regions of the Russian Federation to exercising their powers, according to the authors, predetermine the relevance of considering the problem of assessing financial solvency for each region. The Arctic zone of the Russian Federation as a management object is nowadays an issue of concern from researchers and requires special attention since most of the country’s resource potential is concentrated on its territory. The study aims at a statistical assessment of the financial viability of the regions of the Russian Arctic through a correlation analysis aimed at exploring the forms of linking indicators that allow us to identify common and specific features of their regional development.

The article substantiates the system of statistical indicators that directly or indirectly characterize the financial solvency of the regions. The analysis of the financial solvency of the regions according to the official statistics for the period from 2005 to 2018 was carried out sequentially and in stages: 1st stage - selection of the data array; 2nd stage - formation of a case of financial indicators; 3rd stage - building a matrix for correlation analysis; 4th stage - correlation analysis; 5th stage - interpretation of the results.

Using the method of correlation analysis, the authors constructed a matrix of correlation pairs, identifying the most relevant ones for assessing the financial solvency of the region. Comparative analysis of paired correlation coefficients for the Arctic regions made it possible to assess the relationship between certain directions and features of their development.

Assessment of the financial independence of the constituent entities is the central problem of balancing regional budgets. In this regard, the results of the study may be of interest to regional and federal authorities for forecasting and strategic planning of the development of the Arctic regions in the face of limited financial resources.

SCIENCE AND EDUCATION

38-49 1024
Abstract

The article presents the results of a study based on statistical methods for analyzing trends in the Russian higher education system over the five-year period preceding the global crisis provoked by the coronavirus pandemic COVID-19. This study is one of the first attempts at a large-scale analysis of the growth rates of the performance indicators of universities in recent years. Its results, according to the author, make it possible to form both a general picture of changes in Russian higher education and a detailed picture for individual groups of universities.

The author has analyzed the dynamics of six indicators of the activity of organizations of higher professional education (535 universities from 80 constituent entities of the Russian Federation): the passing score of the Unified State Examination (USE), the qualifications of academic staff, their publication activity, the internationalization of the student body, the profitability of activities and the provision of educational and laboratory premises. Trends in the change in the values of these indicators are revealed depending on the form of ownership, specialization and status of the university.

It was found that, in general, the average values of the indicators for five years increased: the passing score of the USE - by 5%; the share of the teaching staff with an academic degree in the total number of teaching staff - by 5%; the number of publications per one scientific and pedagogical worker (SPW) - 2.2 times; the share of foreign students in the total number of students - 1.5 times; profitability of activities - 1.3 times; the total area of educational and laboratory premises - by 8%.

At the same time, in non-state universities, the USE passing score has decreased, and they lag behind state universities in terms of growth in the publication activity of the teaching staff and the internationalization of the student body. However, their results are higher in terms of the growth of profitability of activities and provision of educational and laboratory premises.

Specialized universities have achieved an increase in the indicators of the publication activity of academic staff and the internationalization of the student body. Among the negative trends, a decrease in the passing score of the USE in medical universities, as well as in the equipment of teaching and laboratory facilities of medical and sports universities, was revealed.

The highest growth in the publication activity of SPW was observed in national research universities (24.5%), and in the internationalization of the student body - in federal universities (33.3%).

Changes in the operating conditions of universities during a pandemic are likely to have an ambiguous effect on the analyzed indicators in subsequent periods. For their adequate assessment, it may be necessary to adjust the methodology for calculating indicators of the activity of higher education institutions, taking into account their intensive use of distance learning technologies.

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS AND INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

60-68 2051
Abstract

The article covers matters of improving measurement on emigration from Belarus. The author views the current role of external migration as a major component of formation of the population in the Republic of Belarus. The effectiveness of the country socio-economic development programs depends, according to the author, on adequate measures for evaluating the phenomenon in question. The article gives a detailed description of national migration statistics, which, as in many countries, underestimates the number of emigrants, and considers the possibilities of the so-called «mirror» statistics (statistics from countries where Belarusian residents emigrate to) in obtaining real information on the size of emigration from Belarus.

After the introduction, the author analyses some of the most important publications on the subject under discussion, concludes the current state of current statistics and population censuses. The article contains the rationale for choosing foreign countries whose data are used as «mirror» statistics necessary for a more realistic estimation of emigration processes and comments on the geography of migration flows from Belarus. The author assesses the gap in data from «mirror» statistics and the official Belarusian statistics and gives an opinion on the real trends in migration flows of Belarusian citizens, along with the authors own estimates of the country’s population growth, which differ markedly from official statistics.

In the opinion of the author, formulated in the final part of the article, the actual amount of the underestimation is considerably higher than can be assumed using «mirror» statistics, because, for example, there is a group of Belarusian citizens in Poland and Russia, that is not reflected in official statistics on migrants. The article therefore proposes to establish a system of information exchange between Belarus and the main countries of emigration, especially Russia and Poland, with which it is difficult to assess the extent of emigration based solely on official data, and to establish regular surveys on emigration.

69-79 651
Abstract

The article defines possible boundaries for forest accounts under the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) in accordance with the legislation of the Republic of Belarus. Under the designated boundaries and in line with the recommendations of the United Nations, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, and others in the field of Environmental-Economic Accounting, a list of possible SEEA accounts for forest resources is proposed: asset account for forests and other wooded lands, asset account for timber resources, flow accounts for timber resources as well as ecosystem accounts for carbon and forest services.

The proposed standard SEEA accounts characterizing forest resources are adapted by the author in accordance with the legislation in force in Belarus and the accounting methodology, as a result of which the author has proposed the following layouts of forest resources accounts: asset account for forest land, asset account for timber resources for forest stands, flow account for marketable timber resources. For each of the accounts, a comparative characteristic of national and international terminology is presented; in some cases, the authors name the phenomena and processes.

In the case of ecosystem accounts, in view of the methodological gaps and difficulties of accounting at the national level, the author proposed creating tables of key indicators of ecosystem assets and ecosystem services for forest resources.

The article concludes with the structural-logical model “SEEA-Forest Resources” through which the relationships between the generated accounts are described.

80-87 608
Abstract

The article outlines main results of global international comparison of GDP on purchasing power parities (PPPs) for 2017 published by the World Bank in July 2020. This comparison is the project of international statistics, which secures unique data on the world economy, on the place of countries in the world and regional economies, on standards of living in different countries, on differences between purchasing power parities and exchange rates, and so forth. These data are of interest to the government in relation to the development of economic policy. This comparison required collaboration between the World Bank as the overall project coordinator, regional coordinators and statistical offices producing baseline data on GDP in national currency.

In the body of the article, the authors consistently consider the following issues: the basic methodology used in the International Comparison Program, main findings, limitations and the degree of reliability of the results of the international global comparisons. In this context issues of methodology of comparison and features of direct binary and multilateral comparisons are considered, in particular the formula for the computation of PPPs, which ensures transitivity (mutual consistency of results).

The article concludes by emphasizing the multifaceted tasks of the International Comparison Program based on purchasing power parities, led by the World Bank.

CHRONICLE, INFORMATION

PAGES OF HISTORY

92-104 765
Abstract

The article is dedicated to the anniversary of the Russian Geographical Society (RGS), primarily to the interaction between geography and statistics. The author examined in detail the evolution and stages of this interaction, noting that since its foundation, despite all the political storms, the Society has not ceased its activities, preserved continuity and traditions established by its founders.

The article opens with the analysis of the historical background and economic prerequisites for the foundation of geographical societies worldwide. The author gives a detailed account of the founding history of the Russian Geographical Society (following in the footsteps of France, Germany and England), focusing on trials and tribulations that accompanied the foundation and naming of the Society. The author provides biographical information on statesmen and scholars who are founders and organizers of the RGS, describes the functions specified in the Charter. One of the four branches in the structure of the RGS was the department «Statistics», which allowed the author in the following sections to consider the interaction between statistics and geography.

A separate section of the article addresses the historical relationship between geography and statistics, which has resulted in the development of a methodological and analytical tool for management decision-making on social and economic development of countries and regions. The article also describes a new direction of scientific activity in the world «Regional science», combining a multitude of sciences into its research, including statistics, economic geography and demography. In conclusion, in the twentieth century, statistics and geography were within the same scientific discipline, complementing and enriching one another and giving an impetus to social development.

The article concludes with information on the celebration of the 175th anniversary of the Russian Geographical Society in the Russian Federation and prospects for the development of a modern public organization.



ISSN 2313-6383 (Print)
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)