DEVELOPMENT OF STATE STATISTICS
QUESTIONS OF METHODOLOGY
The article discusses various approaches to estimate the scale of illegal migration in Russia, based on the use of administrative data of the Federal Migration Service, the Main Directorate for Migration of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia (MDM) and the Border Service of Russia. It is noted that the problem of assessing illegal migration for the Russian Federation has become very relevant since the late 1990s, when the migration landscape changed, and forced migration flows were replaced by mass labor migration, mostly undocumented.
The article discusses the definitions of illegal migration and the main methodological and practical approaches to determining its scale. It is emphasized that in Russian practice, the definition of illegal migrants mainly implies foreigners with short-term or temporary status, working without permits and without the right to stay in Russia (most often, due to the excess of the permitted duration of stay). This narrowing of definitions is explained by the nature of migration processes in Russia: the predominance of short-term and temporary forms of migration, mainly for the purpose of employment, as well as visa-free entry for 90% of labor migrants.
The paper provides a brief overview of the foreign practices of assessing illegal migration and explains the possibilities of using these methods in Russia. Several methodological approaches are considered in the article, based on different types of statistical information and involving different calculation algorithms for assessment of the stocks and flows of illegal migrants. In particular, it describes the system of criteria related to the right to work and stay in Russia, which was until recently used by the MDM of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia to identify the stock of violators among foreigners who were staying at a certain moment of time on the territory of Russia. In addition, a method of reclassification of purposes of entry to estimate the stock of potential undocumented labour migrants is being considered. To calculate the number of long-term illegal migrants staying in Russia for more than a year, it is proposed to use the “residual method”, which is common in foreign practice. The article also shows the possibility of assessing the flows of undocumented labor migrants based on comparison of data on migrants’ registration at a place of stay with the purpose “work” with the number of persons who received permits. The method based on the border control data which was used in early 2000s is discussed from a critical point of view.
All approaches are illustrated with relevant statistical examples and accompanied by comments on possible vulnerabilities, dealing with both the data itself and the methodology. Explanations are given regarding the prospects and limitations of the materials of the all-Russian population censuses and the Labor Force Survey for estimates of illegal migration. In the final section of the article, the author formulates some recommendations to adjust the methodology for assessing the scale of illegal migration in Russia, for improvement of its accuracy. The necessity of changing the time criteria associated with excess of permitted duration of stay (those with visa and visa-free regime of entry to Russia) and the feasibility of structuring the stock of illegal migrants by duration of stay, that will allow to identify those who already refer to the permanent population, and to improve the international comparability of the Russian estimates.
The article presents the results of the study of the latest international standards and methods of statistical measurement of innovations developed by leading international organizations, contributing to the further development of the domestic methodology of this area of statistics. The authors identified promising directions for extending and refining knowledge on various aspects of innovative activity, including those associated with generation of new information base to analyze, conduct international comparisons and make forecasts of development of the innovative sector of the economy.
The article considers up to date approaches to the measurement of innovative processes and the possibility of their adaptation to domestic practice. The paper includes revised definitions of the concepts of innovations, innovation activity, and its types. The composition and content of types of specially researched innovations, covering basic business process of organizations, are revealed; characteristics of innovation activity are identified in more detail. A new version of the Community Innovation Survey program is presented, which focuses on the study of «open innovation», including user innovations, revision of innovative activities. Some additions to the existing questionnaire are formulated.
The place of innovative development of Russia compared to that in European countries is analyzed. For these purposes, the authors justified the use of the system of indicators reflecting current trends and development potential of innovations in the economy. In particular, this system includes indicators of the level of innovative activity, dynamics, and intensity of innovative activity. Based on the calculations of key indicators characterizing innovative activity in Russia, the authors concluded that over the past decade, the main characteristics of innovation activity have not significantly changed. In terms of the level of innovation activity, our country ranks 28th (7,5%), as for the intensity of expenditure on technological innovation - 9th (2,1%), in terms of the share of innovative goods and services in total sales 24th (6,5%).
In conclusion, the authors formulated main methodological changes in the statistical measurement of innovative processes associated with the modernization of international standards and identified further directions for improving statistics of innovation. These directions require increased attention to monitoring the effectiveness of the tools used, and creating an information basis for making informed management decisions in the field of regulating innovation processes.
STATISTICAL METHODS IN SOCIO-ECONOMIC STUDIES
The core objective of the study, results of which are summarized in this article, is to determine the effectiveness of using assessments of economic agents in the analysis of sectoral and macroeconomic development. The paper tests the hypothesis of the cross impact of economic growth and entrepreneurial behavior. It is assumed that economical cyclicity is produced not only by macroeconomic shocks, but also by the impulses generated in the business environment. The sentiment and expectations of entrepreneurs are considered in this case both as a consequence of the ongoing economic events, and as a warning factor affecting the economic decision-making.
To test the hypothesis, the authors used results of all sectoral business tendency monitoring of the HSE and Rosstat, which reflect the aggregate sentiment and expectations of about 24 thousand entrepreneurs and 5 thousand consumers. The monitoring results are combined into the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI), which calculation algorithm is based on the generally accepted international methodology and is updated taking into account the specifics of the Russian economy.
The joint decomposition of the time series of the ESI and the reference series of GDP growth with extracting growth cycles and the dating turning points confirms the cyclical correspondence of the dynamics of the analyzed indicators. An empirical consistency of ESI and GDP time series is revealed based on cross-correlations, a long-term linear regression and through a two-dimensional vector autoregression model. This model is used for short-term forecasting; the forecasting results indicate an unstable and slow acceleration of GDP growth in 2020.
Given the ESI calculation efficiency and a noticeable advance in its publication compared to publication of official data on GDP growth, as well as ESI statistical effectiveness, it can be concluded that the aggregate estimates of entrepreneurial and consumer sentiment accumulated over a 20-year period are acceptable and reliable as leading information on economic growth in the country.
The authors present results of the study of the domestic residential real estate market, using the city of Moscow as an example. Importance of this study comes from the fact that the residential real estate market occupies a significant place in the national economy; that said, it is necessary to take into account its scale and development dynamics. On one hand, the development of the residential real estate market is always considered within our country’s social policy that is targeted at raising standards of living. Оn the other hand, players in various markets participate in the housing construction industry because in it are concentrated significant volumes of financial flows. For a more detailed economic and statistical analysis, the authors chose the most dynamically developing segment of residential real estate in Moscow - the market for new buildings. According to the authors, dynamics, and nature of change in the indicators of the capital market of primary real estate along with general market conditions was affected by legislative changes that have occurred in the construction and banking sectors.
Given the heterogeneous development of the capital market in a large metropolis such as Moscow, the authors applied the clustering of districts using the results of comprehensive studies of the primary real estate market of previous years. For this study, four groups of factors
were identified: characteristics of apartments, indicators of transport accessibility, the level of infrastructure development and the state of the environment. The information sources included databases of leading real estate companies such as CIAN, Metrium, Domofond (as of the end of May 2019), as well as official statistics from Mosgorstat, Mosecomonitoring, Unified Transport Portal. After the preliminary analysis of the data, sample was made of new buildings of the mass segment (economy and class comfort).
Using regression analysis, the authors constructed models of the dependence of the cost per square meter of residential real estate on the market of new buildings in Moscow on several factors and identified the most significant of them. The results of the study presented in the article may be of interest to consulting companies, real estate agencies, employees of the banking sector, as well as local authorities for strategic planning of the development of the real estate market.
ENVIRONMENT STATISTICS
The topical relevance of this study lies in the current state of the environment in Russia. It is assessed as unfavorable, and this fact is recognized both by the scientific community and at the state level, which determines the need for an integrated study of costs aimed at protecting the environment and improving the ecological situation. One of the article’s objectives was to conduct an appropriate statistical analysis both for Russia as a whole and for selected regions. For that purpose, the volumes, structure, and dynamics of environmental protection expenditures and some factors affecting their value were comprehensively studied; the differentiation of the Russian regions by the level of expenditures was examined. The authors substantiated the areas of environmental protection based on econometric modeling.
This study, in particular, revealed a fairly close relationship between economic growth and the generation of both production and consumption wastes. At the same time, it was established that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate is significantly lower than the growth in waste generation, which is explained by several reasons, including budgetary ones. This situation, in turn, was reflected in the ratio of environmental protection costs to GDP. The observed situation of a very slow reduction, stabilization or even growth of the negative impact of economic entities on the environment in a number of regions of the country and for specific indicators, as well as an increase in the generation of household waste (i.e. among the population), requires an adequate increase in the costs of enterprises and budgets of all levels aimed at environmental protection and rationalization of environmental management. This in principle leads to an increase in production costs and calls for a redistribution of budget expenditures from the production and social sphere to the environmental sector. The use of econometric modeling to highlight the factors that influence the level of costs by region has shown that their value depends primarily on the population density and the actual state of the environment.
The article addresses the stages towards the establishment of methodological base for the environmental-economic accounting at the global level and the adoption of the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) 2012 - Central Framework as the first international statistical standard in this area. The structure of the system of environmental-economic accounting in the context of the types of accounts in accordance with the SEEA Central Framework is considered. The approach of grouping accounts by thematic modules with an emphasis on the Forest module is also presented, the problem areas are identified when using this approach. Using the example of the current Belarusian legislation, an attempt has been made to describe the possible boundaries of the Forest module if it is formed in the Republic of Belarus.
The trends in building of environmental-economic accounts in countries around the world, which are based on the results of global assessments conducted by the United Nations Statistics Division, are analyzed. In addition, the author discussed the background and problems for the build of environmental-economic accounts for forest resources in the Republic of Belarus. Examples of early national studies and their reflection in current practice when publishing data are presented. The national legislative, institutional, methodological and information bases that can contribute to the build of accounts are analyzed. Short conclusions are made about the possibilities of forming environmentaleconomic accounts for the forest resources in the country.
DEMOGRAPHIC STATISTICS
The relevance of the chosen topic is closely related to the development of a system for monitoring the implementation of the May Presidential Decree (2018) to increase life expectancy and improve the quality of life of the population. It has been stated that despite the positive dynamics of life expectancy over the past decade, Russia still has a huge regional differentiation (16,6 years for women, 18,2 years for men in 2016) and an average gender gap - 10,6 years. The choice of factors affecting the gender gap in life expectancy in Russian regions is supported by a conclusion most common in foreign studies that climatic conditions, living conditions, the quality of food and drinking water, alcohol consumption are essential components of public health and life expectancy.
The article provides an overview of studies on assessment factors of life expectancy, presents the authors’ approach to identifying gender gaps in life expectancy, living conditions, and lifestyle affecting the indicator of life expectancy. The paper presents the results of a comparative analysis of gender gap in life expectancy in Russia and foreign countries. The paper studies the correlation between living conditions and lifestyle, and life expectancy.
Classification of the regions by the life expectancy at birth for men and women is an important component of this study. The authors used Rosstat data for 2016 and the k-means method to select three clusters of Russian regions taking into account gender, living conditions and lifestyle. The paper identifies similar health problems of the regions that are associated with alcohol consumption, poor nutrition and poor quality of drinking water, poor housing and living conditions. The lowest life expectancy rates for men and women are recorded in regions of the 1st cluster (Jewish Autonomous Region, Republic of Tuva, Chukotka Autonomous Area). High mortality rates are a result of external causes. There is a poor quality of drinking water and poor nutrition, excessive alcohol consumption, and inadequate housing conditions.
Based on the obtained results were determined possible reserves for reducing the gender and regional differentiation of life expectancy.
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)