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Vol 26, No 12 (2019)
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QUESTIONS OF METHODOLOGY

5-14 1164
Abstract

Big data is a component of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. The deep penetration of digital technology has turned data into an essential component of the production process. Data are automatically generated by machines during the course of operation and during interactions with humans. This paper describes the concept and composition of big data. Most of the big data are unstructured and include text, audio-video files, images, emails, log files, etc. Statisticians are more interested in structured data presented in a pre-defined database model. Big data offer new sources and opportunities that cannot be discounted. However, the use of big data requires proper assessment in terms of quality dimensions such as accuracy, comparability and methodological soundness. Against the backdrop of arguments regarding big data, some users view big data as a replacement of official statistics. Such a conclusion is premature for at least two reasons: first, only a small part of big data can be used for decision-making. Second, theory and practice prove that a small sample based on scientific methods can yield much more reliable and accurate estimates than the results obtained from the processing of large amounts of unstructured data. The paper assesses the possibility of using big data for Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) monitoring, which is a nationally owned process, and NSOs are accountable for the SDG data they report. If the data are derived from a big data source, irrespective of the level of technical sophistication used in data transformation, the reliability of such data might be questioned by the national institutions. The paper concludes that the reliability of data obtained from big data sources hinges on the quality of tools and methods applied to data transformation. Statisticians can play an important role in alerting society, decision-making bodies of the government and businesses about the reliability of information derived from the different sources.

STATISTICAL METHODS AND METHODOLOGY OF ANALYSIS

15-26 733
Abstract

Methodological and instrumental problems of working-out a system of econometric calculations that provide the construction of retrospective time series of indicators of inter-industry relations of the domestic economy are considered. The calculation system is based on the joint use of reporting data on inter-industry relations of the domestic economy for any particular year (or years) and data on the dynamics of gross output of activities included in the inter-industry table available in state statistics. This problem can be represented in the form of a system of linear equations in which the number of sought variables to be determined (in this case, the sets of weather values of the inter-industry cost coefficients) exceeds the number of equations (i.e., balance identities for each year of the retrospective period). A special modification of the linear regression model - a model with time-varying structural parameters was applied to generate time series of indicators of inter-industry ties. The econometric method described in the work provides for the disaggregation of the well-known dynamic series of intermediate consumption (at constant prices) in the economy as a whole on the indicators of intermediate consumption (also at constant prices) for certain types of economic activity (economic value). The specified information is not available in state statistics. The developed econometric method provides, further, the disaggregation of time series of the total indicators of intermediate consumption of certain types of economic activity calculated by separate flows of costs (at constant prices) within each given economic value presented in the symmetric table ≪Input-output≫. The numerical results of using the developed calculation system are presented as applied to the construction of time series of intermediate consumption of the real sector and the services sector of the domestic economy for 2004-2016.

27-38 858
Abstract

The article proposes an improved system of statistical indicators for assessing the state and development of the fuel and energy complex of Russia, which defines a methodological approach to identifying factors and trends in its development. The introduction highlights the relevance of modernization of information and methodological support for reaching decisions on new tasks, including those related to the digitalization of the economy and implementation of the national projects’ portfolio. The body of the article critically examines the current configuration of official and departmental statistical information, based on which the authors selected 85 key indicators reflecting the state and development level of the fuel and energy complex of Russia. All of them can be delineated by sectors and analysis tasks. This evaluation system includes 7 blocks: general block characterizing the role of the fuel and energy complex in the economic system; key industry performance indicators; indicators of the production structure by industry; technological indicators of industries; prices for fuel and energy resources; production costs by industry; distribution indicators of fuel and energy resources. The paper analyses development trends in the fuel and energy sectors for 2008-2018. In particular, the authors’ research showed that modern oil production is characterized by a change in the territorial structure, as well as the reinstatement of the role of vertically integrated companies in the development of oil production. The article presents findings on the technological upgrading of Russian oil refining. However, the authors’ research proved that oil refining depth has ceased to be a reliable indicator of the level of technological equipment and modernization level of oil refineries. With regard to the development of the gas industry, there has been a steady increase in gas production, which is supported by maintaining a steady increase in demand for Russian gas in the domestic and foreign markets. The all-time high domestic consumer demand for gas fuel, associated with the Russian Regions Gasification Program implemented by the Ministry of Energy of Russia, was recorded. At the same time, the authors identified the main risk factors in the development of the industry related to Gazprom (a backbone of the energy sector) activities. The persistent positive growth dynamics in commodity production of associated petroleum gas was established. It was also noted that the highest percentage of its beneficial use is characteristic of operators of production sharing agreements. As for the results of the analysis of the coal industry, a matter of interest is the growth of domestic prices for coal products and related derivative trends. Particular attention is paid to the development of the possibilities of using over-the-counter coal price indicators. Replacement of coal with natural gas at a thermal power station in most regions of the country is of interest within the identified development trends of the electric power industry in Russia, which is explained by the environmental friendliness of electricity generation.

REGIONAL STATISTICS

39-51 1034
Abstract

The article assesses the intensity of transformation of settlement pattern in Yakutia, the largest northern region of Russia, based on an analysis of 1939-2010 censuses and contemporary statistics. Scope of the work includes the following: to assess key socio-economic results of rural and urban settlement pattern transformation in the 20th century, to determine the most persistent primary units of settlement pattern, and to identify current trends in the settlement pattern of Yakutia. The research database was built based on digitization of Federal State Statistics Service in the Sakha Republic (Yakutia) population censuses archives. The period under review shows a trend toward larger size of settlements due to two parallel processes: urbanization as a result of industrial development, and compression of rural settlement system due to amalgamation of rural settlements. From 1939 to the present time, Yakutia’s settlement system has been evolving from dispersed type to large settlement type. There were two major waves in the structuring of space in Yakutia. During the first one, caused by industrialization and complete collectivization, shrinking of rural settlement system was accompanied by setup of rural and urban settlements; it started in the 1930s and lasted until late 1950s. The second wave, concurrent with controlled compression of rural settlement pattern as part of elimination of unpromising sovkhoz state farms, was associated with a full-scale development of urban settlement pattern under planned Soviet deployment. Starting from 2002, market mechanisms have changed the direction of development of settlement system and spatial structure of economic activity. Despite several constraints, which include high transportation costs, focal development, key role of mining and resource sector, distinctive features of traditional economies and agriculture, agglomeration processes have gained momentum in the region. Spatial concentration of population is taking place at relatively high rates, primarily in the core of the system - Yakutsk agglomeration. Compression capacity of settlement system in the region is far from being exhausted, as evidenced by behavior of Theil and Herfindahl-Hirschman indices, as well as by average population density of settlements.

IN THE COURSE OF DISCUSSION

52-60 1467
Abstract

This paper presents selected results of the study on improving information and methodological tools to increase the effectiveness of entrepreneur’s and state investment policy. Final result of this study - is developing guidelines for calculating the coefficient of investment attractiveness of the banking industry based on the physical theory of heat transfer. Classification of industries according to the degree of investment attractiveness allows to select the industries that will receive the least amount of resources from private investors. The least attractive sectors will be able to obtain public investment resources. For sectors with high investment attractiveness, public funds will only supplement the flow of free liquidity from the banking sector. The lack of liquidity in the real sector is compensated by attracting private funds, a significant share of which is in the banking sector. The real sector could also get the state investments. In this regard, it is important for the state and the banking sector to assess the industries from the position of the possibility of returning the funds, as well as obtaining additional income. The study presents guidelines for calculating the coefficient of investment attractiveness of the industry for the banking sector. The indicator takes into account both the distribution of bank loans in the economy by industry, and the expected profitability of lending, affecting the bank’s decision to issue a loan. Based on the analysis of theoretical concepts, it was demonstrated that the liquidity of the banking sector can be redistributed ≪freely≫ (due to market mechanisms) and ≪involuntarily≫ (through the implementation of state policy related to the direction of funds in certain sectors where there is a lack of resources). The study considers a methodological approach to the assessment of factors affecting the distribution of liquidity of the banking system in the real sector of the economy. The considered approach takes into account behavioral aspects of decision-making in the banking system.

FROM THE EDITORIAL MAIL

61-72 1106
Abstract

The article analyzes the possibility of reaching the benchmark of 400 thousand researchers by 2024, which was publicly announced by the Minister of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation. This goal can be reached when implementing the Federal Project ≪Development of Human Resources in the Field of Research and Development≫, as part of the National Project ≪Science≫. The article provides links to the statements of the Minister on this topic. The analysis is based on the results of the authors’ research in the fields of science and education, official data on population and employment from reference books and yearbooks of the Federal State Statistics Service, as well as from statistical handbooks of the National Research University Higher School of Economics. In this study, the authors used forecasting methods. The authors examine the place of researchers on the domestic labor market as a qualitatively relevant link within the working population segment and characterize the measures of countries, that as well as Russia are the members of the BRICS, to increase the share of researchers. Study of foreign experience led the authors to deem it necessary to increase wages of this group of specialists (for example, in the BRICS countries the ratio of the average salary of researchers and the average salary of the entire working population is 3-5 to 1), while in modern Russia employees with scientific degree are not valued enough. Findings of rating agencies that there is a low interest among Russian employers in hiring employees with a scientific degree support the authors’ conclusions. The article raises the question of creating real motivational mechanisms for a notable increase in the share of researchers in the workforce to execute the strategic goal of improving the quality of economic growth and the welfare of the population.

73-82 786
Abstract

The article addresses methodological issues of labour statistics in the context of ongoing work of international organizations, first of all the International Labor Organization (ILO), as well as eff orts of national governments on implementing the system of indicators to monitor progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals. The paper shows conceptual approaches of the oldest international organization (that is the ILO) to the development of its statistical base in the 21st century and focusing its activities on the Agenda for Sustainable Development adopted by the UN General Assembly. The paper reviews the ILO centenary history of work on improving social and labour relations and labour statistics. It analyzes the activities of the International Labor Organization related to the development of its statistical base; special attention is paid to the development of a system of indicators to monitor progress in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. Despite the definite positive changes in in the ILO’s work, comparative analysis of recent ILO and World Bank reports revealed unresolved problems in the fields of international standards and labour statistics. Considerable attention has been paid to the main ILO initiatives on improving employment indicators reflected in the content of international conferences of labour statisticians. The role of indicators of decent work was especially highlighted, while the author noted that the very concept of ≪decent work≫, in contrast to the concept of ≪quality of work≫, did not receive sufficient statistical content. The article formulates the need for changes in Russian labour and social statistics in connection with the development of a list of SDG indicators and acute attention that is given to the “international poverty line” and “working poor”. It is necessary to bring Russian terminology of statistical indicators of ≪working poor≫ into line with the methodology and terminology of the ILO and the World Bank.

«VOPROSY STATISTIKI» IN 2019



ISSN 2313-6383 (Print)
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)