DEVELOPMENT OF STATE STATISTICS
STATISTICAL METHODS IN ECONOMIC FORECASTING
Combining forecasts is one of the most effective and well-established methods for improving the accuracy of economic forecasting. This approach allows the use of all available information about the predicted phenomenon contained in individual forecasting methods. Moreover, today there are many approaches to construct weights, through which particular forecasts are combined.
But with a large variety of methods for constructing weight coefficients, there are a number of problems, primarily concerning the interpretation of the weight coefficients that affect the accuracy of forecasts. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the previously proposed approaches to modify the most popular methods for constructing the weighting coefficients of Granger-Ramanathan and Bates-Granger, which allow to solve the problem of the possibility of obtaining negative weights when combining forecasts. As well as to compare the accuracy of the results when using data modifications of the methods for combining forecasts with private forecasting methods and with the original methods of combining.
All the methods described in the work were used to predict some specific types of industrial products produced in Russia, presented as annual data for the period from 1952 to 2018: steel, coke, plywood and cement. Based on the developed forecasts, the accuracy of the obtained results was compared.
As a result of the analysis, it was determined that the combination of forecasts remains the most effective method for improving the accuracy of forecasting, and the modifications proposed by the authors to the methods for constructing weight coefficients deserve their further use in economic practice.
STATISTICAL METHODS IN SOCIO-ECONOMIC STUDIES
The process of the digitalization of economic activity currently raises many questions of economic and social policy in Russia that need to be solved with relevant statistical and analytical data.
In this case, it is important to significantly increase the sources of efficient, accessible and comparable data on sectoral digitalization. The authors believe that the opinions and assessments of direct participants of digital events (economic agents from various kinds of economic activity) should also be taken into account when forming targeted decisions of policymakers aimed at the inclusive growth of the national economy, including through such force as digitalization.
Therefore, in 2018 the Centre for Business Tendencies Studies at National Research University Higher School of Economics launched the pilot project focused on measuring the digital activity of Russian enterprises of main types of economic activity. The authors define the main task of the study as the development of such criteria for measuring the industry’s digital market conditions, sample requirements for respondents and a system of indicators that together with the results of the pilot surveys would allow the expert community to actually provide effective data and analytical support to entrepreneurs with forming of sectoral digital platforms.
The main idea of the study is that the success of the country in promoting digital technologies is largely related to the possibilities of collecting large-scale qualitative data on digital trends, barriers and effects comparable to international counterparts.
The review presents the main methodological principles and first results of pilot market surveys among industrial and commercial enterprises in Russia and outlines criteria for selecting indicators for the first pilot sampling. As an example, the section of the article devoted to key results of the 2018 pilot survey of industry uses analysis of digital transformation in medium-size and large manufacturing enterprises.
Innovations in the 2019 pilot survey are addressed as an independent direction. In this regard the article notes that the survey program involves measuring ICTs capabilities and potential to increase resource and environmental efficiency in industry, evaluating investment activities related to green growth and aimed at the development and dissemination of green technologies and achieving environmental goals, assessing final consumption (demand) for environmental goods in trade, accounting for the development ICT technologies aimed at greening and resource efficiency by organizations.
The article concludes that taking into account the first results of the market survey, the basic requirements for a system of market indicators were determined. These requirements reflect the level, directions, intensity, dividends, and effectiveness of digital transformation of the main kinds of economic activities for a more representative consideration of the digital contribution to GDP growth.
The contraction in investment activity and capital reversals from the electric power industry to other energy sectors in Russia poses a potential threat to the country’s energy supply. Identifying the causes of low investment attractiveness of the electric power industry in order to justify directions of regulatory impacts relates to a comparative assessment of the industry profitability. It gives greater urgency to the development of the relevant methodological guidelines.
The paper presents the study of the two mutually reinforcing methods for measuring the profitability of the Russian energy industries and comparative analysis of electric power industry and industries related to the extraction and processing of oil and gas using data from Rosstat. The authors identified the strengths and weaknesses of the two methods used. In particular, it is shown that the method for calculating macroeconomic profitability thought versatile and straightforward is sensitive to changes in the initial data generation technique and its quality. Whereas, the application of the second method based on the aggregation of data on prices and structure of intermediate consumption of enterprises is limited to industries not participating in export-import operations.
Through the practical application of the abovementioned methods, the author did not find any gaps in profitability between the power industry and other energy sectors. Hence, the relatively low investment attractiveness of the power industry is mainly due to structural causes (for example, pricing; low market efficiency). Economic and statistical analysis of the current situation allows, in the authors’ opinion, to make target government actions. Moreover, adequate management is a precondition for further improvements to the methodology of profitability analysis of energy sectors, primarily, advancement towards disaggregation of the considered indicators and data availability.
REGIONAL STATISTICS
The article considers main trends in the small business of the Altay Territory according to results of 2011 and 2016 full-scale observations that follow the results of activities of small and medium-sized enterprises in 2010 and 2015.
In the introduction, the author argues the relevance of the economic and statistical analysis of small business, which is essential for its support, as it is one of the government’s priority areas of activity at all levels when it comes to solving problems of socio-economic development. There are characteristics of information support of the analysis related to the implementation of the Federal Law No. 209-FZ from July 24, 2007 «On small and medium business development in the Russian Federation» and the Order of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 201-r from February 14, 2009.
The body of the article successively focuses on some areas of analysis - from the general characteristics of small businesses to the factual analysis of individual aspects of activities of the economic entities under review (headcount, wages and revenues, fixed assets and the scope of investment activities). The features of small enterprises development by economic activity are analyzed separately. An integrated indicator of structural differences is used to assess the significance of structural changes in small businesses. A cluster analysis of the Altay Territory municipalities was carried out and they were rated according to the small business development level. In addition, the author assessed the contribution of small business of the Altay Territory to the development of small business in the Siberian Federal District and the Russian Federation.
The final section of the article draws conclusions from the authors’ own specific analysis that points to both positive and negative trends in the development of small business in the Altay Territory.
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
The article discusses the reasons for the 1998 revision to the UN recommendations on international migration statistics and related issues. Over the past 20 years since the publication of the Recommendations, there have been major changes in the nature of migration, the priorities of migration policy and the need for adequate statistics. The UN Expert Group Meeting on Migration Statistics in July 2019 raised some critical issues related to difficulties in meeting the conditions set out in the 1998 Recommendations and the persistent significant differences between countries in the availability and quality of migration data.
Special attention is paid to the most vulnerable provisions of the Recommendations - the concept of the place of usual residence and time criterion used to measure long-term migration. The article also considers draft guidelines on statistics of certain types of migration – forced, labor and circular- through which international organizations are trying to fill the gaps in the 1998 Recommendations. Final part of the article is devoted to the situation in Russian official statistics of migration after the transition to the new methodology of data collection. It is concluded that the intention to meet the conditions laid down in the 1998 Recommendations, not supported by the technological state of administrative sources, has created new problems. It is suggested that revised statistical standards should be more flexible. It is also necessary to take into account external factors that influence the work of national statistical services in the development of migration statistics.
CHRONICLES OF THE JOURNAL
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)