INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES IN STATISTICS
The authors consider basic principles of the transition of the Russian statistics to the alternative census methodology associated with digitalization of management processes, taking into account the authors’ opinion on this matter, organizational and methodological principles of alternative approaches to the upcoming 2020 Russian population census, using the Internet, combined census design, joined and agreed development of all the information sources on the population, practical verification of decisions, development of an interconnected system of estimates of the size and structure of the population. It is emphasized that due to the novelty of the considered problems both theoretically and from the point of view of practical introduction of the new ideas, the authors hope for a wide discussion within the scientific community and among specialists with a view to developing a common position in the construction of the population register.
This article deals with the issues of production technology and dissemination of migration statistics and phenomena that directly or indirectly affect it. The authors raise controversial issues of applying innovative approaches to different aspects of life, digitalization of the economy. In the search for new types of data, chronic problems of Russian migration statistics remain in the shadow. Among them are the lagging behind the global level in primary information collection technology, the apparent lack of use of available data sources, inconvenient access to aggregated statistics. An important but not always positive role in these processes is played by institutional factors and the lack of awareness of decision-makers about the potential of information resources under their control with regard to migration statistics, and about its social significance. The authors suppose that problems associated with uncoordinated data sources and difficulties in accessing the information could be overcome. To this end, the creation of a digital platform that will host sets of data on migration produced by different agencies, a description of the methodology for the development of statistics and possibly analytical publications can be discussed within the framework of today’s popular projects related to innovations. It is expected that the Federal State Statistics Service can act as a coordinator in this work.
STATISTICAL METHODS IN SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
The authors continued the empirical studies of systemic (push/pull) factors influencing the decision of highly-skilled workers to migrate. Considerable attention is paid to the analysis of postgraduate mobility of the Russian university graduates. The authors determine the need for a deeper study of the outflow of highly skilled workers abroad and establish main directions towards resolving this issue. The example of the aggregate «Bachelor graduates of Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Economics» was used to reveal the nature of the influence of socio- economic factors on making the decision about the labour migration. The level of education was limited to the Batchelor’s degree in order to confirm the impact of educational migration on the decision to migrate for employment purposes. Based on comparative analysis of push/pull factors the authors formulated the hypothesis for establishing their significance in the decision made by highly-skilled specialists to migrate. Following the study results the authors identify key drivers of human mobility, among which are economic factors such as dissatisfaction with the standard of living and opportunities for self-realization, and non-economic factors associated with the status and desire to be in a politically stable situation. The role of educational migration as a potential channel for labor migration of professionals in the future is proved: more than 50 percent of respondents noted that initially the decision to leave the Russian Federation was made in connection with the desire to enter a foreign University to continue education. The analysis of survey results established alarmingly low participation of the migrated graduates from Russia in the development of transnational ties with their native country: the vast majority of respondents have never invested in securities of Russian companies, nor have they performed trade operations with Russian companies or conduct any business in Russia; only 6 percent of the surveyed graduates monthly sent remittances to relatives in Russia. One of the conclusions of the article is the necessity to develop a comprehensive program for the state employment policy in the field of international labor migration.
Content analysis of consumer price index (CPI), as a main estimate of the inflation rate, implies a seasonal adjustment of data. Seasonal adjustment is related to several methodological issues, some of which are common for all seasonal economic time series. For example, the seasonal components may evolve during the time, i. e. the amplitude and frequency may change. The article reviews approaches to solving conceptual issues related to the seasonal adjustment of the consumer price index, its basic principles and methods; the authors present best international practices. Besides, some specific issues of consumer price index as an aggregate may arise. Another problem is caused by economic nature of some CPI components, so that common methods of seasonal adjustments cannot be applied. The proposed methodology shows in the authors’ opinion how to increase the quality of estimation and interpretation of short-term innovations in a consumer prices dynamics.
STATISTICS AND SOCIETY
In the XXI century issues concerning the creation of a tolerant society and bringing up the younger generation in the spirit of tolerance are becoming more pronounced by the mass media and are more often raised in scientific publications. Openness of statistics is viewed by the authors as a condition for the creation of a tolerant society assuming that the concept of open data that is strongly pushed forward nowadays potentially brings not only new possibilities for improving the public consciousness and social order, but also entails new threats associated with the unrestricted availability of any statistical data. The article considers various points of view on tolerance and tolerant society along with challenges on the path to transforming statistical information into the open platform of some kind to be freely accessible and available for all social strata without exception. The authors pay special attention to outlining best practices on open data that along with the messages of support to real information democracy still leave certain loopholes due to the existence of national interests. In this regard, the article addresses a widespread and highly toxic double standards when while encouraging the opponents to be absolutely «open and transparent» in different fields, one’s first priority is still ensuring own information security.
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
The author of the article using the example of large economies showed the possibilities of a quantitative analysis of the relationship between the current account balance and the economic growth rates in 1980-2015. The group of the large economies includes those countries whose GDP exceeded 1 percent of the global GDP for at least one year of the period under study. There appear to be 24 countries that meet this criterion. The analysis of the dynamics of the current account balance (CAB) of these countries revealed a significant CAB sign stickiness. That said, out of the 14 countries that make up the so-called permanent group within the large economies, four - Australia, Brazil, India and the USA - have had a CAB deficit during the period under study, and four countries - China, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Japan - had a CAB surplus. The article reviews possible correlations between the growth rates and the current account balance (percent of GDP) for the large economies. It is shown that for only a few of those 24 countries there was a stable (with reliability at 80 percent or more) correlation: for some it was positive, for others - negative. Only three out of 24 countries (China, Russia and Turkey) showed a stable correlation with reliability at 0.95: China and Russia - positive correlation; Turkey - negative correlation. The rapid growth of the Indian economy does not have a significant correlation with the CAB value. The paper analyzes the scatter diagram for CAB values (percent of GDP) and GDP growth rates at constant prices averaged out for the entire observation period for all the 24 countries. Calculations demonstrate that it is possible for large economies to secure relatively high rates of economic growth for many years even with a CAB deficit.
The author establishes the importance of the Common Metadata Framework adapted to Azerbaijani conditions and the possibility of using this experience by the statistical agencies when creating national statistical metadata systems. The article formulates proposals for upgrading the structure of the Common Metadata Framework with regard to its practical applications. It is the author’s opinion that conclusions and proposals made in this system research can be used to revise the Common Metadata Framework and to develop state programs aimed at improving statistical practice and metadata development strategy within the national statistical systems.
FROM THE EDITORIAL MAIL
This article presents the results of the authors’ research on proving the statistical hypothesis on the validity of including investments in works of art into the so-called safe-haven investments. The author argues with the traditional among investors and experts - art market researchers view investments in cultural assets as long-term investments, guaranteeing the owners the highest profits with a lag of two decades. The questions concerning the information and analytical base of the research, the use of grouping methods and analysis of variance are described. Based on the empirical analysis, the author draws conclusions regarding three basic trends in support of investment opportunities in the cultural property market, which, however, can not be unequivocally interpreted in favor of treating investments in art as a shelter investment. Quantitative characteristics, reflecting the classification difference between the art market players, are calculated. In the final part of the article the author stresses that in modern conditions it is unreasonable to exaggerate the influence of time (a time lag of 20 years) in strategic decisions on investment activity in the art market.
CHRONICLE, INFORMATION
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)