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Vol 25, No 5 (2018)
View or download the full issue PDF (Russian)

INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES IN STATISTICS

3-10 745
Abstract

The authors consider basic principles of the transition of the Russian statistics to the alternative census methodology associated with digitalization of management processes, taking into account the authors’ opinion on this matter, organizational and  methodological principles of alternative approaches to the upcoming  2020 Russian population census, using the Internet, combined  census design, joined and agreed development of all the information  sources on the population, practical verification of decisions,  development of an interconnected system of estimates of the size  and structure of the population.  It is emphasized that due to the  novelty of the considered problems both theoretically and from the  point of view of practical introduction of the new ideas, the authors  hope for a wide discussion within the scientific community and  among specialists with a view to developing a common position in the construction of the population register.

11-26 612
Abstract

This article deals with the issues of production technology and dissemination of migration statistics and phenomena that directly or indirectly affect it. The authors raise controversial issues of applying  innovative approaches to different aspects of life, digitalization of the economy. In the search for new types of data, chronic problems of  Russian migration statistics remain in the shadow. Among them are  the lagging behind the global level in primary information collection  technology, the apparent lack of use of available data sources,  inconvenient access to aggregated statistics. An important but not  always positive role in these processes is played by institutional  factors and the lack of awareness of decision-makers about the  potential of information resources under their control with regard to  migration statistics, and about its social significance. The authors  suppose that problems associated with uncoordinated data sources  and difficulties in accessing the information could be overcome. To  this end, the creation of a digital platform that will host sets of data  on migration produced by different agencies, a description of the  methodology for the development of statistics and possibly analytical publications can be discussed within the framework of today’s popular projects related to innovations. It is expected that  the Federal State Statistics Service can act as a coordinator in this work.

STATISTICAL METHODS IN SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

27-41 672
Abstract

The authors continued the empirical studies of systemic (push/pull) factors influencing the decision of highly-skilled workers to migrate. Considerable attention is paid to the analysis of  postgraduate mobility of the Russian university graduates. The  authors determine the need for a deeper study of the outflow of  highly skilled workers abroad and establish main directions towards  resolving this issue. The example of the aggregate «Bachelor  graduates of Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of  Economics» was used to reveal the nature of the influence of socio- economic factors on making the decision about the labour migration. The level of education was limited  to the Batchelor’s degree in order to confirm the impact of educational migration on the decision to  migrate for employment purposes. Based on comparative analysis of  push/pull factors the authors formulated the hypothesis for  establishing their significance in the decision made by highly-skilled  specialists to migrate. Following the study results the authors  identify key drivers of human mobility, among which are economic  factors such as dissatisfaction with the standard of living and  opportunities for self-realization, and non-economic factors  associated with the status and desire to be in a politically stable  situation. The role of educational migration as a potential channel for labor migration of professionals in the future is proved: more than  50 percent of respondents noted that initially the decision to leave  the Russian Federation was made in connection with the desire to  enter a foreign University to continue education. The analysis of  survey results established alarmingly low participation of the  migrated graduates from Russia in the development of transnational  ties with their native country: the vast majority of respondents have  never invested in securities of Russian companies, nor have they  performed trade operations with Russian companies or conduct any  business in Russia; only 6 percent of the surveyed graduates  monthly sent remittances to relatives in Russia. One of the  conclusions of the article is the necessity to develop a  comprehensive program for the state employment policy in the field of international labor migration.

42-54 1169
Abstract

Content analysis of consumer price index (CPI), as a main estimate of the inflation rate, implies a seasonal adjustment of data. Seasonal adjustment is related to several methodological issues,  some of which are common for all seasonal economic time series.  For example, the seasonal components may evolve during the time, i. e. the amplitude and frequency may change. The article reviews approaches to solving conceptual issues related to the seasonal  adjustment of the consumer price index, its basic principles and  methods; the authors present best international practices. Besides,  some specific issues of consumer price index as an aggregate may  arise. Another problem is caused by economic nature of some CPI  components, so that common methods of seasonal adjustments  cannot be applied. The proposed methodology shows in the authors’  opinion how to increase the quality of estimation and interpretation  of short-term innovations in a consumer prices dynamics.

STATISTICS AND SOCIETY

55-61 712
Abstract

In the XXI century issues concerning the creation of a tolerant society and bringing up the younger generation in the spirit of  tolerance are becoming more pronounced by the mass media and  are more often raised in scientific publications. Openness of statistics is viewed by the authors as a condition for the creation of a tolerant  society assuming that the concept of open data that is strongly  pushed forward nowadays potentially brings not only new  possibilities for improving the public consciousness and social order,  but also entails new threats associated with the unrestricted  availability of any statistical data. The article considers various points of view on tolerance and tolerant society along with challenges on  the path to transforming statistical information into the open  platform of some kind to be freely accessible and available for all  social strata without exception.  The authors pay special attention to  outlining best practices on open data that along with the messages  of support to real information democracy still leave certain loopholes  due to the existence of national interests. In this regard, the article addresses a widespread and highly toxic double standards when  while encouraging the opponents to be absolutely «open and transparent» in different fields, one’s first priority is still ensuring own information security.

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS

62-69 606
Abstract

The author of the article using the example of large economies showed the possibilities of a quantitative analysis of the relationship between the current account balance and the economic growth rates  in 1980-2015. The group of the large economies includes  those countries whose GDP exceeded 1 percent of the global GDP for at least one year of the period under study. There appear to be 24  countries that meet this criterion. The analysis of the dynamics of  the current account balance (CAB) of these countries revealed a  significant CAB sign stickiness. That said, out of the 14 countries  that make up the so-called permanent group within the large  economies, four - Australia, Brazil, India and the USA - have had a  CAB deficit during the period under study, and four countries -  China, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Japan - had a CAB surplus. The article reviews possible correlations between the growth  rates and the current account balance (percent of GDP) for  the large economies. It is shown that for only a few of those 24  countries there was a stable (with reliability at 80 percent or more)  correlation: for some it was positive, for others - negative. Only  three out of 24 countries (China, Russia and Turkey) showed a stable correlation with reliability at 0.95: China and Russia - positive  correlation; Turkey - negative correlation. The rapid growth of the  Indian economy does not have a significant correlation with the CAB value. The paper analyzes the scatter diagram for CAB values  (percent of GDP) and GDP growth rates at constant prices averaged  out for the entire observation period for all the 24 countries.  Calculations demonstrate that it is possible for large economies to  secure relatively high rates of economic growth for many years even with a CAB deficit.

70-77 678
Abstract

The author establishes the importance of the Common Metadata Framework adapted to Azerbaijani conditions and the possibility of using this experience by the statistical agencies when creating national  statistical metadata systems. The article formulates proposals for  upgrading the structure of the Common Metadata Framework with  regard to its practical applications. It is the author’s opinion that  conclusions and proposals made in this system research can be used to  revise the Common Metadata Framework and to develop state programs  aimed at improving statistical practice and metadata  development strategy within the national statistical systems.

FROM THE EDITORIAL MAIL

78-85 488
Abstract

This article presents the results of the authors’ research on proving the statistical hypothesis on the validity of including investments in works of art into the so-called safe-haven investments. The author argues with the traditional among investors and experts - art market researchers view investments in cultural assets as long-term  investments, guaranteeing the owners the highest profits with a lag  of two decades. The questions concerning the information and  analytical base of the research, the use of grouping methods and  analysis of variance are described. Based on the empirical analysis,  the author draws conclusions regarding three basic trends in support of investment opportunities in the cultural property market, which,  however, can not be unequivocally interpreted in favor of treating  investments in art as a shelter investment. Quantitative  characteristics, reflecting the classification difference between the art market players, are calculated. In the final  part of the article the  author stresses that in modern conditions it is unreasonable to  exaggerate the influence of time (a time lag of 20 years) in strategic decisions on investment activity in the art market.

CHRONICLE, INFORMATION



ISSN 2313-6383 (Print)
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)