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No 4 (2017)
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QUESTIONS OF METHODOLOGY

3-11 596
Abstract

The article considers a wide circle of issues pertaining to recording globalization in national accounts. This topic is relatively new and one of purposes of this article is to attract attention of experts in national accounting to it and initiate discussion. Though the SNA 2008 does not contain a separate section on this topic the recommendations on compilation of its accounts and computation of major indicators are developed to reflect this phenomenon. Globalization of the world economy has different aspects and manifestations and they had different impact on various accounts and indicators of the SNA. They are associated with activities of multinational corporations, with growth of investments abroad, with increase of processing goods abroad, with growing investments by households in dwellings abroad, with transborder flows of income. The most part of transactions associated with globalization are recorded in balances of payments the data of which are used for compilation of national accounts and it requires cooperation between central banks and statistical agencies. Taking decisions on priorities in recording globalization in national accounts statistical agencies of countries have to take into consideration importance of relevant aspects and transactions for their economies. For example, for Russia, taking into account its links with the CIS countries, particularly important is monitoring of transborder flows of migrants and income, recording reinvested income of enterprises of direct foreign investments.

12-21 682
Abstract

The article considers the issues of development of national accounting at the regional level. Pertinence of this topic is associated with the use of regional macroeconomic indicators for management of economy carried out by government bodies. The article reviews some aspects of the theory for calculating gross regional product (GRP), which public authorities use to monitor the level and dynamics of regional economy for decision-making on measures to stimulate economic processes; on optimization of taxation and the system of regional transfers, as well as to equalize regional development and standards of living.

The author analyses methodology for GRP calculation developed by the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) with the emphasis on the most important provisions and information issues, which have impact on accuracy and analytical usefulness of regional macroeconomic indicators.

Significant attention is paid to major improvement directions of the GRP computation methodology, including implementation of new treatment of important transactions recommended in the 2008 SNA. Among such directions the author mentions harmonization of GRP and GDP calculation methodology, improvement of information sources and methods of their processing; development of interaction between central and regional statistical agencies.

STATISTICS AND SOCIETY

22-37 631
Abstract

Information and communication technology has reached a level of development that official sites of statistical offices and information resources stored on them has become the major channel for the distribution of statistical data. Therefore issues related to dissemination of statistical information should now be discussed in the context of internet-based databases, i.e. information and statistical systems. Transition from statistical handbooks and publications to such systems can lead to a radical increase in the volume and quality boost of statistical information made available to the users along with drastic reduction in data access costs.

For several years now users have been able to access the official Rosstat website, the Central Statistical Database and the Unified Interdepartmental Statistical Information System that combined claim to the role of Russian information and statistical system. However it is safe to say that the users of all the abovementioned resources are not exactly content and satisfied with them.

The purpose of this article is to organize author's thoughts on what kind of information and statistical system will suit the users tasked with analyzing Russian economic dynamics more.

The article discusses what's required of such system and puts forward suggestions for structuring the process of its organization, maintenance and development. The author reviews information structures that this system should look up to, relationships between them, general logic behind the total data set in the database. Emphasis is being placed on ensuring the following requirements: completeness, non-redunduncy, consistency, actuality, accuracy and precision. The composition of non-numeric information in the database is discussed. The article examines system functionality, issues related to its establishment, maintenance and development. Because establishment of this system has a substantial economic and statistical component, it can not be done only by the efforts of IT specialists. It is necessary to organize interaction between system developers and its potential users.

38-53 705
Abstract

The article notes that in the Russian Federation 2017 was officially declared the Year of Ecology. As this year statistical information on environmental protection, by definition, should play a special role in the speeches of state and public leaders, in coverage of the situation by the authorities, in publications and messages in mass media, the article analyzed the situation in Russia, using the specified statistics. This assessment is based primarily on the speeches, messages, interviews, etc., made in 2016 and in the beginning of 2017 - the Year of the Ecology.

The author started from the fact that submission of the official statistical information must be supported by authoritative statistical data. Incidentally this calls for strict control and verification of the outlined information, observance of basic responsibility when posting profile messages. Unfortunately, by the beginning of the Year of Ecology the situation with environment statistics, data on pollution and degradation, and on conducted environmental activities, was characterized by substantial shortcomings. The purpose of this article is in describing and analyzing existing errors of specific facts and figures in the speeches of a large number of officials.

The author notes that it is not about the inconsistencies in figures collected and published by various agencies, about the fundamental differences in accounting methodology, about the different approaches to the organization of statistical observations, about the discrepancy in summary groupings, etc. These errors are caused by trivial haste and carelessness while preparing the materials that include statistical data; lack of qualified approach to the selection of specific figures and their interpretation; weak understanding of a given economic and statistical issue or environmental problem and a number of other, largely subjective factors.

When analyzing the errors the article not only acknowledges their existence and gives a general description. In many cases, it is characterized by a domestic entity of a particular error, possible reasons for its occurrence. There also are assumptions about the implications of having wrong approaches and mistakes. The abovementioned inaccuracies include incorrect data in the physical measurements, incorrect cost characteristics and comparative values, of which those calculated using national accounting aggregates. The author presents main ways and forms to eliminate (or at least significantly reduce) the number and scope of mistakes in handling statistical data in this area.

REGIONAL STATISTICS

54-63 804
Abstract

This article is devoted to the econometric modeling of economic development in municipalities with account to their spatial and temporal inhomogeneity. An overview of econometric models of economic growth in municipalities is given in the first part of the article. Second part of this article presents the results of empirical research aimed at assessing the contribution of factors affecting economic growth in municipalities of the Republic of Bashkortostan.

Econometric modeling was carried out for groups of municipalities because of heterogeneity of intraregional development. Municipalities in the region have been divided into four clusters using cluster analysis. The authors have developed models for each cluster, which describe the dependence of the gross municipal product of the cost of human and investment resources. Estimation was performed by methods of panel data. It was proven empirically that the clusters are characterized by a different impact of the used growth factors. In general economic growth in all municipalities of the republic was carried out due to human resources. High concentration of human and investment resources in municipalities did not provide a high return on them. The article concludes with recommendations on the regional policy measures needed to improve economic growth in the municipalities of the region, as well as recommendations on the formation of lists of «growth poles» and depressed areas in the regional space.

IN THE COURSE OF DISCUSSION

64-73 683
Abstract

This article uses official statistics as a basis for analysis of reporting parameters for inflation targeting regime selected by the Bank of Russia to measure inflation rates in national economy. Aggregated consumer price index (CPI) adopted by the Bank of Russia is shown to not always adequately reflect the real consumer price dynamics considering existing in our country regional differentiation of the population by the average per capita income.

The paper reveals main causes of the mismatch between the reporting CPI and real inflation dynamics in regions of the Russian Federation. The indicator for estimating the rate of inflation has been improved, focusing on its measurement, taking into account the purchasing power of the population in the regions. This allows «anchoring» inflation expectations and improving the efficiency of price formation in the national economy.

74-84 399
Abstract

Matters related to organizing and adopting enumeration methods for population censuses are known to instigate a heated public debate all over the world including in Russia. Some call for modernizing census operations or even abandoning them altogether in favour of other means of obtaining data from statistical units. Reasoning behind proposals for changing fundamental approaches to statistical observation lies in excessively high costs of traditional population censuses and multiple refusal to participate it them from large groups of population. Development of various administrative registers of data and regular country-wide surveys lay the groundwork for revising approaches to conducting general censuses.

The example of Germany is interesting, firstly, because in this country operate solely local population registers and there is no centralized population register. Secondly, there are no personal identification numbers (PIN), which complicates integration of information from population registers and from other sources. This is the first research that traced stepwise oiganization of population census in such an ambiguous situation. German practice demonstrates that it is possible to conduct population census using population registers that do not contain personal identification numbers, but to do so it is necessary to create a register of addresses, buildings, and dwellings. The experience of Germany, as well as of other countries conducting mixed-mode population census, is important and beneficial for Russia especially in the light of the attempt to establish a population register.

Analyzing administration of population and housing census in Germany the author arrived at a conclusion that regardless of all shortcomings and challenges censuses remain to be the only source of statistical information on population and households at a certain point in time, however in modern conditions approaches to conducting them both could and should be modified.

SCIENCE AND EDUCATION

СТАТИСТИЧЕСКИЙ АНАЛИЗ ФИНАНСОВЫХ ПРОЦЕССОВ

SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC STUDIES

MATHEMATICAL AND STATISTICAL METHODS IN ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING



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ISSN 2313-6383 (Print)
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)