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Voprosy statistiki

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No 12 (2016)
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QUESTIONS OF METHODOLOGY

3-12 532
Abstract

The article discusses methodological issues regarding the calculation of the average wage index for the regional level. In authors' opinion, the indicator of average monthly nominal wages of employees calculated at the regional level is inadequate in assessing the implementation of management decisions at the macro level, particularly in connection with the Presidential Decree no. 597 from 07.05.2012 «On measures for implementation of the state social policy», due to a certain lack of comparability between the numerator (size of wage and salaries fund) and a denominator (average number of employees). Despite the fact that the new method for calculating the average monthly wage (tested by Rosstat on data for 2015) removes a number of problems in the methodology for calculating this indicator, the authors believe that it still does not describe the specific information and methodological tools that allow to implement the declared adjustment procedure for average wages in the region, taking into account differences in the place of receipt of income and place of residence.

The authors have developed statistical and methodological approach that allows at the expert level to make adjustments to the calculations of the average wage index, which is especially necessary for those regions of the country, which actively attract foreign labor or provide jobs to citizens at the expense of additional second job employment and an a contractual basis. The paper includes calculations of adjusted values of the average monthly nominal gross wage of workers for Russia as a whole, as well as for Moscow and St. Petersburg.

13-18 417
Abstract
The article is a commentary to the article by V.A. Bessonov «On the losses generated by the inflation mis-measurement» (Voprosy statistiki, 2016, no. 10); the article considers selected issues of theory of price statisics which are the basis of V.A. Bessonov analysis of CPI computed by the Rosstat; in his opinion the CPI is apparently upward biased due to the use of Laspeyres formula which does not reflect the substitution affect; he attributes in particular this bias to the change of the weights base period; he presents his estimate of the magnitude of the bais but does not clarify how it was obtained. It is worth noting in this context that many experts in index theory believe that measuring of the magnitude of the bias is problematic and comparing Laspeyres index with Fisher index might be requied for this purpose. As an important the issue of the choice of the weights base period as it is there are some other important issues of price statistics theory which are not analised by the auther. These refer to measuring of change of quality of goods which is particularly important for computation of price changes of the technological complex products such as computers, cars, cell phones and so forth. The article by V.A. Bessonov will stimulate futher discussion on price statistics theory.

STATISTICAL METHODS AND METHODOLOGY OF ANALYSIS

19-28 473
Abstract

The article is devoted to the formation of the original database and the justification of forecasting techniques for average monthly gross wages and salaries of employees at the regional level of the Russian Federation. The conceptual basis of the proposed approach in the article is a method of calculating the average monthly gross wages and salaries of employees in organizations, individual entrepreneurs and natural persons, introduced into the practice by the Federal State Statistics Service, in April 2016.

Particular attention is given to forecast evaluation of wages in the formal and informal sectors of the economy based on the aggregation of different sources of information: statistical reporting and results of the federal sample surveys. The practical significance of the proposed algorithm is in its approbation on real statistical data for the Russian Federation and the city of Moscow.

29-38 6665
Abstract

This article proposes an original method for estimating regional economic activity in Russia. It is based on monthly official regional statistics in five main sectors of the Russian economy (industry, construction, retail trade, wholesale trade and paid services) but transforms it into specially constructed dichotomous variables which eliminate an excessive volatility of initial time-series.

Indices of Regional Economic Activity (REA) are constructed for the 82 Russian constituent entities («oblasts») for the period from January 2005 till now. Composite indices for all five economic sectors, eight federal districts, and Russia as a whole are then calculated. The authors propose methods for visualizing multidimensional regional data. They allow one to track the regional peculiarities of the Russian economy and to discern the current phase of the business cycle more accurately. Several illustrative examples for possible application of these indices in real time monitoring and analyses are provided. The paper demonstrates that these methods can be applied in real time, ensuring almost simultaneous publication of information on regional economy and data on Russia as a whole.

39-45 491
Abstract

This article presents an interpretation of «food security»» as a concept and addresses lines of debate on this matter. It focuses on the characteristics of the two systems of indicators (international and Russian), used for the monitoring food security and food independence of the country. The paper also explains the logic behind the emphasis in performance characteristics on those systems that are most relevant in connection with the tasks (or defined goals), respectively, by international organizations or within the framework of national programs.

Although the author speaks favorably about the system of statistical indicators for monitoring food security, developed by Rosstat, she, at the same time, draws attention to the possible risks related to the reduction of food sovereignty arising from a significant share of imports in the composition of the material costs on the production of agricultural products. Therefore, to realistically assess food sovereignty, one should take into consideration the share of imports in the structure of costs on production of major crops as well.

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS

46-52 340
Abstract
В июне 2015 г. Организация Объединенных Наций приняла Резолюцию (2015/10), объявляющую раунд переписей населения 2020 г. В ее развитие Совет глав государств СНГ принял специальное решение «О проведении переписей населения раунда 2020 года в государствах - участниках Содружества Независимых Государств» (16 сентября 2016 г., г. Бишкек).
53-58 418
Abstract

The authors base their analysis of development of agricultural services (as a vital component of countries’ GDP) on official statistics of the Kyrgyz Republic. Agricultural production is one of the strategic development directions of the country, and statistical study of agricultural services is an important condition for improving its efficiency. Attention is drawn to characteristics of rendering specific services to agricultural producers, in which market reforms are reflected in the most explicit form. Thus new forms of service infrastructure were created, among them services in crop-growing, animal husbandry, forestry, hunting and fishing. There development became a priority. It is only natural because service sectors that are a point of contact between producers and consumers turn to be most susceptible to market relations.

The paper considers contradictory trends that have become apparent in the course of market reforms on the example of the country’s agricultural sector, and the current state of affairs in the segment of providing agricultural services; this includes supporting agricultural producers by means of consultations and advice. The authors speak in favour of adequate strengthening the measures of state regulation and support of the country’s agricultural sector in order to enhance the competitiveness of agricultural products.

59-74 670
Abstract
This article deals with one of the most pressing socio-economic problems of our time - international migration. On the basis of factual materials and data from national statistical offices and international statistics, the authors estimated the extent of global forced displacement, explored the role of refugees in addressing the demographic problems of the European continent, and the distribution of refugee flows across European countries. The paper conceders the proposed approaches to adaptation and integration of refugees, and examines changes in the landscape of political forces in Europe in terms of «refugee crisis» and the proposals to transform migration policies put forward in the European Union.
75-86 471
Abstract

The article presents a retrospective view on social and economic situation of the states that emerged in the post-Soviet space that is based on official statistics. The methodological approach, which gives, in author’s opinion, the possibility (despite the small list of selected indicators) is sufficient to objectively assess the impact of market reforms on the economy and social situation of the population. The format of the comparative analysis is chosen to analyze three groups of indicators: number and demographic characteristics of the population; size and dynamics of GDP (total and per capita); the foreign trade turnover to GDP ratio. The conclusion is made about strengthening of the trend (that was formed in the Soviet period) towards development of different types of demographic reproduction of the population in the European and Asian parts of the CIS.

An important place in the article is given to the presentation of the selected results of the international comparative analysis of the levels of economic development of the CIS countries and some foreign countries. There have been conflicting trends in socio-economic development of some of the CIS countries, confirming (with due regard to national circumstances) the idea that the real socio-economic effect of market reforms are not the same as the originally announced objectives.

«Voprosy statistiki» in 2016



ISSN 2313-6383 (Print)
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)