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No 5 (2016)

MATHEMATICAL AND STATISTICAL METHODS IN ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING

3-22 940
Abstract
The author presents methodological foundations and techniques for analysis of import dependence and import substitution in modern Russian economy using general methodological tools in the form of balance construction of «input-output» tables. The author sequentially addresses technical aspects of import dependence and import substitution analysis, estimates the value of import in the resources used by products on the basis of highly aggregated expert «input-output» tables for 2014 (summary characteristics, dependence of industry production on imports, imports ratio estimates in the cost of the final product). The article formulates conclusions on the use of information base of estimations that include detailed data from the form № 1 - enterprises and customs statistics as well as results of import dependence analysis. The article includes the following essential content-related components: description of modern information array that is used to analyze import dependence and import substitution; proposals for detailing balance sheets used in data analysis; summary of the areas that should be the focus of efforts to ensure the sustainability of import substitution process.
23-49 414
Abstract
The article discusses the main results of 2015 compared to those of 2014. The authors present analysis of trends and forecasts of macroeconomic and sectoral indicators for 2016-2017. The situation in the fiscal policy, social field, and real economy is analyzed; are given forecasts for development of industrial production, agriculture and investment. Various options for economic development are proposed. The authors emphasize that the lag in the technological level of production is a problem of general importance and to overcome this issue they propose several solutions such as: attracting private and foreign investments, and increasing the efficiency of public investments (as a key growth factor). The article reviews limitations of the current system for forecasting, budgeting and management of socio-economic development and proposes measures to overcome the structural crisis. The authors make quality assessment of anti-crisis measures to ensure sustainable socio-economic development, government forecasts and budget projections. The article evaluates the effects of international sanctions, as well as the impact of energy prices, currency appreciation, and inflation expectations on the socio-economic development. The study determines factors contributing to the macroeconomic development of the economy; Russian economy is weighted against global economic trends.

PAGES OF HISTORY

86-93 455
Abstract
The Central Statistical Board established in 1918 by Soviet authorities, was the first body in the centralized system of official statistics in the world. Controversy surrounding centralized and decentralized systems of official statistics has risen in the middle of 19th century, when official statistical organizations in European countries have been formed. The opinion, that centralized statistical system in Soviet Russia was established out of necessity for the planned economy, is commonly accepted. The objective of this paper is to shed light on the European influence on the establishing of statistical organization in Soviet Russia. The article includes documents from the Russian State Economic Archives (RGAE) and Russian State Historical Archives (RGIA), as well as proceedings of the Sixth International Statistical Congress held in Florence in 1867.

STATISTICS AND SOCIETY

80-85 787
Abstract
The author evaluates current state of statistical literacy in the Russian society and recommends ways to improve it. The article focuses on negative tendencies associated with the decline in statistical literacy, which is one of the most prominent characteristics of the intellectual potential of the society; it attempts to provide definition of the term "statistical literacy" and analyze factors, both negative and positive, affecting it. At the same time the paper emphasizes the need to use differentiated approach to the educational process itself (for example, when it comes to different groups of population, government officials, municipal employees, etc.) and argues in favour of the action plan, that according to the author, would be beneficial for overcoming negative trends in the field of statistical literacy of the Russian population.

STUDY OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC PROCESSES

50-62 585
Abstract
The paper estimates an influence of government alcohol policies on the road accidents dynamics in Russian regions. The research was based on the regional data provided by Rosstat, for years 2001-2013. The sample included 962 observation units from 74 regions of the Russian Federation. Alcohol deterrence measures under review included temporal bans on alcohol sales and price instruments (increase in alcohol prices due to excise taxes for spirits and floor price for vodka). Among other controlled for variables were population density, unemployment, number of automobiles per person in a region. The authors also differentiated between the regions with developed illegal alcohol markets and those where illegal alcohol trade was not widespread. To do so, the authors used the number of audits by authorized bodies that revealed law infringements in alcohol production or trade. Econometric analysis revealed a favorable influence of temporal bans on the number of road accidents. In addition it was proved that in the regions with strict control over illicit trafficking of alcohol the number of traffic accidents decreased as a result of reducing the permitted alcohol trading hours. The number of accidents in a region is negatively correlated with unemployment level and population density. At the same time, the presented data does not show definite correlation between price mechanisms and the number of road accidents in Russian regions.
63-69 312
Abstract
The question of how to develop tools to characterize markets for addictive goods and services is becoming more and more relevant mostly because the spectrum of consumer goods causing pathological addiction in specific population groups is expanding and their consumption levels are increasing as well. This subsequently leads to the escalation of economic and social threats, along with the deficit of empirical information and social stigma attached to certain subject areas of analysis. The purpose of this study was to develop proposals for improving the system of statistical monitoring of these markets. The author accomplishes it by proposing a detailed subject-objective structure of markets for addictive goods; building the system of characteristic indices; analyzing current practice of the state statistical monitoring the development of markets for addictive goods and opportunities for its improvement. The article describes the grouping of markets in question. On the basis of matrix theory and combinatorial calculus the author demonstrates relationships between subjects, objects and indicators. Indicators outlining the development of markets for addictive goods are arranged and classified following subject aims and industry characteristics. In accordance with the topical area for monitoring of the abovementioned markets are proposed the ways to improve statistical records of their development. To describe subjects and objects of markets for addictive goods and their evolution, the author worked out the system of indicators and formulated suggestions to upgrade the process of collecting the information on markets for addictive goods and services, classified by types. This, according to the author, is necessary because the information used to manage the specific markets for addictive goods require significant improvements.
70-79 544
Abstract
The authors on the basis of official statistical data and results of own sociological research analyze the impact of economic expectations on the formation of models of financial behavior of the Russian population. Current crisis makes analysis of factors and types of savings strategies (as the most common type of financial behavior in our country) particularly important. There is a hypothesis that savings give people confidence in their future amid economic turmoil, therefore, it should guarantee a certain measure of social stability. Savings in the form of bank deposits ensure the stability not only of the banking and financial systems, but ultimately of the country as a whole, affecting employment and incomes. This article discusses the transformation of savings strategies, including the appropriateness, form, norm and currency savings. The authors demonstrate how economic situation effects financial position of households and motivates their financial behavior in the face of negative expectations. Comparison of views on the current economic situation of the country and projections of the (near) future of highest income segment of the population and total population of Russia revealed perception similarities when it comes to feasibility of savings and general confidence in the banking system. The authors came to the conclusion that the so-called savings behavior dominates all the other types of financial preferences in our country. General decline in living standards observed in 2014-2015 and differentiation in income levels across regions and social layers prove to be the main factors influencing the formation of risk-free financial strategies.


ISSN 2313-6383 (Print)
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)