No 4 (2015)
QUESTIONS OF METHODOLOGY
14-29 554
Abstract
The article is focused on considering issues of harmonizing the Government finance statistics manual (published by IMF in 2014) with the SNA 2008. In this regard the authors highlighted the fact that the underlying concepts and definitions of these two systems of macroeconomic statistics are practically identical. They refer to concepts of distribution and redistribution of income, definition of sector of general government, classification of assets. However treatment of some important transactions is not harmonized; for example, this refers to the treatment of government expenditures on military durables, output of central banks, financial intermediation transactions. The article provides an example of the scheme of linking indicators of government finance statistics and the SNA. The authors have developed «transition tables», i.e. matching algorithm for corresponding performance indicators (or their elements) of units of the general government sector in both systems. The following two tables are considered as an example. The first one describes the steps required for computing indicator of general government sector output on the basis of data on its costs. The second table reflects the relationship between the index of intermediate consumption in the 2008 SNA and the indicators of use of goods and services in the GFSM 2014. The authors argue in favour of implementing a phased approach to using indicators from the IMF manual to compile general government sector accounts within the SNA: a first step could be to focus on indicators of economic transactions, and leave recording stocks and liabilities in the balance sheet to a later date.
REGIONAL STATISTICS
57-66 393
Abstract
The article outlines economic fundamentals, statistical and methodological framework and technical capabilities of the implemented information-analytical system «Promotion of goods of the Republic of Tatarstan in foreign markets». The authors introduce analytical tools to investigate the nature of trade relations between the regions of Russia, CIS and foreign countries, identify trends in the development of relations and suggest possible options for the development of trade. The information-analytical system is intended for use by the executive authorities of the Republic of Tatarstan and other regions of the Russian Federation. Goods produced by manufacturers of the Republic of Tatarstan, including food and non-food products, are subject to the monitoring. The foundation for the system is information base generated within the framework of the federal, departmental and customs statistics, as well as during implementation of the intergovernmental agreements of the Republic of Tatarstan. Analytical tools are designed according to availability of information on the import and export of goods, production volume and dynamics, market prices and producer prices, etc. The system provides the possibility of component-wise analysis, the selection of product groups, indicators, territories and periods. Data on the level of utilization of production capacities is used during the analysis, which allows predicting the possibility of production expanding in the case of increasing demand for the product or determining new markets. Information-analytical system allows creating dynamic information boards that contain interactive graphs and charts, gives the opportunity to visualize the data on production and sales of goods in order to identify the prospects of introducing the goods produced by manufacturers of the Republic of Tatarstan in regional and international markets. The system has a friendly interface, provides visualization of output and intermediate data, automated updating, operational interactive mode, extensible user state.
67-73 300
Abstract
The pension system of the Russian Federation is undergoing structural transformations, connected with the formation of new pension institutions for the population. Mandatory pension insurance remains the basic element of the pension system. At the same time the budget of the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation has deficit of its own revenues for the payment of insurance component of labor pension. In these circumstances special significance is placed on the development of methodological approaches to income projection of the obligatory level of the pension system. One of the peculiarities of the Russian Federation is the uneven territorial development caused by such factors as natural and climatic conditions, transport availability, natural-and-resource and infrastructure security. Therefore in the article was set a goal to develop a prediction technique for estimating the volume of pension insurance premium that would take into account territorial differences. The author using methods of statistical grouping revealed heterogeneous nature of distribution of constituent entities of the Russian Federation by the level of the received pension insurance premiums. Is established the expediency of using the method of panel data to model the revenues of the mandatory level of the pension system by the allocated groups of constituent entities. For every group of constituent entities were constructed (using methods of economic modeling) typological regression models, upon which was developed a short-term forecast of the volume of insurance premium transferred to the funded and insurance parts of the labour pension, allocated to the budget of the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation. Forecast results, received using typological regression models, regression model for all the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and factual data for 2013, served as a basis for the conclusion that taking into account territorial differences in the conditions under which the base that is subject to pension premiums is formed (while making forecasts on the amount of incomes of the mandatory pension insurance) allows to increase the forecasting accuracy of assessments used for the budget planning of the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation.
PAGES OF HISTORY
DEVELOPMENT OF STATE STATISTICS
3-7 455
Abstract
The article presents general development principles of the official statistical methodology, planning system of scientific and methodological works, current status and development directions of the regulatory framework for the development and coordination of official statistical methodology. The author discusses the new factors and events affecting the development of official statistics and statistical methodology - economic crisis, competitive environment new for statistics, budget cuts, «big data». The article presents a brief characterization of global initiatives on updating statistical methodology and practice, and addresses OECD projects on creating modern instruments for statistical measurement of economic welfare and sustainable development of society. The main development directions of the Russian official statistical methodology concerning regional, social and demographic statistics, systems of statistical surveys of the population on socio-demographic issues are presented. Special emphasis is laid upon the development of an integrated methodological basis for economic statistics, represented by a system of economic indicators, based on the use of common to all sections of economic statistics definitions, principles, assessment methods and data sources, as well as updating the methodology of national accounts as a conceptual framework for integrated statistics.
8-13 372
Abstract
This material contains information on legal and regulatory, methodological and organizational framework for the Russian Agricultural Census, which in accordance with the Decision of the Government of the Russian Federation No 316 from April 10, 2013 will be conducted from July 1 to August 15 of 2016. In this article is listed the following preparatory work performed for the census: changes were made to the Federal Law No 108-FZ from July 21, 2005 «On the All-Russian agricultural census», vital methodological, census and guidance documents were developed, was set the Portal for technical and methodological support of the census, was arranged the publicity and promotion campaign. It is pointed out that in 2015 will be developed a program and procedure for training temporary census workers, results program for the Russian agricultural census in the Russian Federation, constituent entities of the Russian Federation, municipal entities. It is emphasized that the census will allow to form the official statistical information on the status and structure of agriculture, availability and usage of its natural resources nationwide as well as by municipal entities (rural and urban settlements) of the Russian Federation, to obtain a wider range of information that is not provided by the current statistical reporting, and to broaden the information base for international comparisons.
МОЛОДЕЖЬ КАК ОБЪЕКТ СТАТИСТИЧЕСКОГО ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯ
30-39 317
Abstract
Statistical abstract «Youth in the Commonwealth of Independent States: A Statistical Portrait» was published in 2014 within a joint initiative of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and the Interstate Statistical Committee of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS-Stat). National statistical services of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan, and independent experts in statistics were directly involved into the process of development of the abstract. The publication reflects targets for the World Programme of Action for Youth, the Millennium Development Goals and the Programme of Action adopted at the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development, as well as youth programmes implemented in the CIS countries. Analysis of statistical data included into the Abstract identified several key problems of life of young people living in the Commonwealth region. Low income levels, insufficient housing per capita, and a higher risk of poverty among young families with children are factors impacting the living conditions of youth and young families in the CIS member countries. Over the past two decades, the CIS has seen major demographical changes that have led to greater variations in the composition and dynamics of statistical indicators in its member countries. The global population ageing trend, characteristic of most countries around the world, is present in all CIS member countries. Statistics clearly demonstrates that youth in the Commonwealth countries face an added risk of mortality from external causes. Health statistics demonstrated that early prevention of morbidity and premature deaths among youth should become priorities of CIS youth policy, and reproductive health, including indicators such as high adolescent pregnancy and abortion rates, maternal mortality, sexually transmitted infections (STIs), and HIV, should be placed into the centre of youth policy. The rate of secondary education enrolment has remained high throughout the CIS economic reforms, while the youth literacy rate (for people aged 15-24) is nearly 100 percent. At the same time in many countries there has been a decrease in the number of graduates from initial vocational schools. This has contributed to a mismatch between the needs of national economies for such specialists and the actual shortage of trained production workers. The highest unemployment rates in the CIS are found among youth. In the coming years, some countries will see a decrease in their working-age population while others experience a large influx of working-age youth, thus producing an excess supply in the labour market. Labour migration can act as a stabilizing force that helps combat poverty, as well as a flexible instrument for integrating CIS countries into the international migration system and for forming international labour market. Host countries face acute challenges, however, with the social integration of migrant populations. Statistics is an essential tool for substantiating, designing youth programmes at the global, regional, and national levels, and monitoring their implementation. The availability of most comprehensive statistical information allows it to formulate specific goals, expected results, determine the resources required to implement youth programmes and evaluate their effectiveness. Meanwhile, in the process of developing the statistical abstract were identified gaps in the youth statistics, proving that there is still much to be done to improve youth statistics in the CIS region.
40-46 605
Abstract
Due to the fact that traditional indicators for labour market participation (first and foremost, employment rate, unemployment rate, economic inactivity rate) insufficiently reflect the situation with young people in the labour market, the author proposes a new approach to its analysis and monitoring that has been widely practiced in the EU and the OECD countries in recent years. This approach uses the NEET concept that defines young people not in employment, education or training i. e. who are excluded from participating in the education system and in the labour market. The author analyzes basic NEET socio-demographic characteristics and trends for NEET rates in EU for 2000-2013. It is demonstrated that changes in NEET rates is determined by the dynamics of NEET unemployment, sensitive to cyclic changes. A strong connection between the NEET rates, calculated for different age and gender groups of young people, is determined. This suggests the existence of common institutional and structural determinates at the country level that either stimulates or restricts the entry of young people (regardless of gender and age) in labour market and education. The NEET indicator for Russian youth is calculated by using data from the Russian Labour Force Survey. NEET rate and sociodemographic characteristics of the Russian NEETs are at the European average. The most significant differences are observed among youth aged between 20 and 24. Russian female NEETs economic inactivity rate is much higher than the EU average, while the share of unemployed male NEETs is below the EU average. Based on the analytical value of the proposed performance indicators, the author proves the necessity to introduce into the national statistical practice indicators, characterizing youth NEETs.
47-56 308
Abstract
The study focuses on estimating the health status of youth population and determining its influence on labor potential, labor productivity and wages that are examined with regard to one of the major economic development issues that is the necessity to modernize territorial entities in the Russian Federation. Applying system approach to research that implies the use of time series of statistical as well as sociological data (broken down territory and with due regard to age groups of population) allowed to increase the representativeness of quantitative characteristics received in the course of generalization. The results of the comparative analysis of workplace requirement and labor potential indices identify that the values of these indicators among youth are more differentiated than among the other population. The results also reveal that young people whose health status and labor potential are good or excellent are more productive and earn more compared to the rest of the youth.
МЕЖДУНАРОДНАЯ НАУЧНО-ПРАКТИЧЕСКАЯ КОНФЕРЕНЦИЯ В САРАТОВСТАТЕ
ISSN 2313-6383 (Print)
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)