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Vol 32, No 3 (2025)
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QUESTIONS OF METHODOLOGY

5-15 25
Abstract

The article examines the issues of measuring the level of information and communication technology (ICT) development, which presents challenges due to ensuring methodological consistency over long-term dynamics. A decisive factor here is the scale of the research objects, which facilitates conducting cross-country comparisons and helps coordinate the measurement and receipt of official data by reputable international organizations, including the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), which is constantly working to improve approaches to such measurements. The article discusses the possibilities of adapting the latest methods proposed by the ITU to assess the level of ICT development at the subnational level and to conduct cross-level comparisons.
Considerable attention is paid to consistency when forming indicators with the same name across different hierarchical levels. The paper examines approaches to countering the «saturation» effect for the characteristics of the introduction of new technologies and limitations in the formulation of goals for their penetration into various spheres of modern society. The problems of data accessibility at the subnational level are analyzed, and the ways to address them within the set objectives are discussed. The findings enable the assessment of key dimensions of digital inequality and determine growth reserves in regional digital development.

MATHEMATICAL AND STATISTICAL METHODS IN ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING

16-34 30
Abstract

The article examines the outcomes of Russia's socio-economic development in 2024, analyzing the dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators and providing estimates and forecasts for structural changes in the national economy for 2025–2026. Using mathematical and statistical methods, the authors conducted a comparative analysis of emerging trends in the gross domestic product (GDP), investments, output volumes in core economic sectors, domestic and foreign trade turnover, inflation, consumer prices, and producer prices.
The study identifies structural bottlenecks and evaluates the impact of economic restructuring – particularly in high-tech sectors that drive qualitative
improvements in GDP composition. This analysis incorporates the role of development institutions and public-private partnership mechanisms. The paper substantiates the necessity and feasibility of further transforming key economic sectors through the implementation of the 2024 Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly, the Russian Government's Unified Plan for Achieving National Development Goals, national projects, state programs of the Russian Federation, and updated federal and regional development strategies

STATISTICS IN SOCIO-ECONOMIC STUDIES

35-50 17
Abstract

The article proposes and tests a methodology for quantifying food security, considering the thresholds for the permissible share of imports in the composition of food commodity resources established by the Food Security Doctrine of the Russian Federation, which distinguishes it from the well-known approaches. Other differences between the proposed approach and the methods most often used for such an assessment are as follows: first, the use of a method for standardizing the evaluated parameters, with target levels established for each component of food security; second, in considering the significance of each of the main types of food in a balanced diet by carrying out a weighing procedure when calculating composite indices.
Testing of the methodology developed by the author revealed that food security in the Russian Federation has significantly strengthened from 2015 to 2022. This enhancement is evident in the growth of three indicators: the sufficiency of domestic production of basic foods, economic accessibility of food products, and the quality of nutrition for the Russian population. Most progress has been made in economic accessibility of nutrition, while the diet of the Russian population is the slowest to meet the target (recommended consumption standards).

51-61 28
Abstract

The article covers methods for removing seasonality from weekly consumer price index (CPI) figures, published by Rosstat. The impact of the seasonal factor on weekly CPI estimates and its components complicates the analysis of their dynamics. The paper, therefore, substantiates the need for seasonal adjustment of the index. In the Russian economic literature, the issue of removing a seasonal component from the CPI weekly frequency has never been examined before.
The study aims to determine the best methods for seasonal adjustment of weekly CPI estimates based on a comparative analysis of models applied universally using direct (adjustment of the entire index) and indirect (adjustment of constituent parts) approaches. Study objectives include considering application of the MoveReg, Prophet, and STL (Seasonal-Trend decomposition using Locally estimated scatterplot smoothing) models to eliminate seasonality influence on the weekly CPI and its components dynamics; testing the models effectives using autocorrelation functions, as well as the Ljung-Box statistical test and its modified version (QS test) and choosing the most preferable one. Experimental model testing was carried out on Rosstat data, including information on prices for individual goods and services as part of the weekly CPI from July 2017 to December 2024.
The study determined that to eliminate the influence of seasonality on weekly CPI estimates, it is appropriate to use the direct approach, applied to the entire index rather than to each of its constituent parts separately. Based on the study’s findings, the STL model was found to be the most preferable one, as it is less likely to «overfit» compared to the other two models. This reduces the risk of excessive seasonality reduction.

SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC STUDIES

62-80 18
Abstract

The article analyzes the dynamics of age-specific mortality rates among males and females across Russia’s regions between 1989 and 2022. The study aims to assess the impact of cohort effects on mortality and life expectancy (LE) at birth in Russian regions. The study tests the hypothesis that regional LE trends are linked to changes in mortality rates across different generations of men and women. Using data from the Russian Fertility and Mortality Database (RusFMD) and Age-Period-Cohort (APC) analysis, the author identifies cohort effects in 76 regions of the Russian Federation.
Four types of Russian regions were identified based on mortality cohort effects for males and females born between 1970 and 1985: first, regions with a steady decline in cohort effects from generation to generation; second, those with stagnant cohort effects; third, regions exhibiting minor growth; and forth, those with substantial increases. By 2019, the share of between-group variance (across region types) accounted for 60–70% of the total LE variance, driven primarily by the 1970–1985 birth cohorts (with less pronounced effects among females).
The results of the study demonstrate that regional disparities in cohort-specific mortality patterns between males and females have likely contributed to divergent LE growth rates across Russian regions in recent decades. In light of these findings, the author concludes that regional demographic policies aimed at mortality reduction must explicitly integrate cohort-specific effects into their design

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS

81-91 45
Abstract

The article focuses on measuring platform employment – labour activity performed for pay or profit, mediated through digital platforms. In recent years, this form of employment has become widespread in many countries, including the member states of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The study aims to develop recommendations for recording (identification and characterization) of workers engaged in labor activities mediated by digital platforms to ensure harmonized measurement of platform employment across the CIS region
The article reviews international guidelines (a joint effort by the OECD, ILO, and EU) on the recording of platform workers and presents findings on measuring this employment form in the CIS countries based on open-source data and findings of a July 2024 survey of CIS statistical agencies. The survey revealed that platform employment is measured within official statistics in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia; however, each country employs distinct methodologies and differing limitations, precluding cross-country data comparability.
To ensure a comprehensive approach to measuring platform employment and enable cross-country comparisons of its scale and characteristics, the study provides recommendations for recording platform workers, taking into account the specifics of this employment category and regional context. The authors propose that CIS national statistical offices implement international definitions and classifications, conduct annual assessments of the phenomenon on the basis of the questions developed for the Labour Force Surveys (LFS), and gather more detailed data every five years on the basis of the special module on the platform employment to the LFS. The analysis is proposed to be carried out on the basis of a system of indicators, which includes indicators of platform employment of varying scope.

CHRONICLE, INFORMATION



ISSN 2313-6383 (Print)
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)