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Vol 31, No 4 (2024)
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MATHEMATICAL AND STATISTICAL METHODS IN ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING

5-20 302
Abstract

The article presents the results of statistical analysis and modeling of employment in cities of the Russian Federation, taking into account the factor of their territorial location. A balanced system of target and factor indicators of employment in the cities of the Russian Federation developed based on the Rosstat database of municipal indicators is substantiated.

Using methods of cluster analysis of spatial data, estimating the values of Moran's index at various distance intervals of cities, the statistical heterogeneity of spatial autocorrelation of employment in cities was proven. Based on the construction of spatial autoregression models, the authors established general and specific factors of mutual influence of employment levels for the entire set of cities and cities located in the zone of socio-economic influence of Moscow. The modeling results were obtained using a SAR-type model – a model with a linear additive specification in which spatial relationships between objects are specified exogenously. Recommendations are given for using other types of spatial autoregression models, which differ in the presence of a connection between the spatial autocorrelation coefficient and individual components of the multivariate regression model.

Based on the results of the study presented in the article, conclusions were drawn about the directions of employment regulation in cities, taking into account the factor of their remoteness from other cities and the possibilities for further development of spatial factor modeling of employment at the municipal level.

21-33 303
Abstract

The article analyzes the individual determinants of mortality of the Russian population from respiratory diseases – one of the most common types of disease in the country. Mortality from this class of causes has traditionally occupied the fifth place in the structure of mortality in the Russian Federation. However, since 2020, due to the pandemic of the new coronavirus infection (COVID-19), this cause of death has moved to fourth place, surpassing mortality from diseases of the digestive system. Moreover, this indicator remains at an increased level compared to the pre-pandemic period, which requires increased attention to this problem.

The study aimed to assess the contribution of certain characteristics of regional economic development and the healthcare system, environmental and behavioral factors to the formation of mortality rates from respiratory diseases. The information base consisted of data from the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) from 2005 to 2022 on 77 regions of the Russian Federation, as well as the information on budget expenditures of territorial compulsory health insurance funds. The author conducted an econometric analysis of panel data with fixed effects to assess the relationship between the morbidity of both urban and rural population from diseases of the respiratory system and mortality from them with the analyzed determinants.

The findings allow for determining the most significant socio-economic, environmental and demographic determinants of the mortality from respiratory diseases among the Russian population. The study's conclusions emphasize the importance of such public policies aimed at reducing mortality from respiratory diseases as tobacco control and environmental initiatives, particularly the implementation of the «Clean Air» federal project.

SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC STUDIES

34-55 377
Abstract

The article presents the results of developing and testing an integral assessment of the well-being of children in Russia. The authors build on an approach used by international organizations such as UNICEF and the OECD, which defines child well-being as a set of parameters that influence the lives of children now and in the future. Particular attention is paid to solving the research question of what indicators, given the availability and reliability of the empirical base, should be presented in the index of child well-being to cha- racterize its economic component.

The Statistical Index of Child Well-Being (SICW), proposed by the authors, includes 27 indicators based on official statistics and the results of sample surveys of Rosstat, which allow for assessing the level of well-being of children in the regions of Russia. Each of the 27 indicators can be attributed to a specific domain and a specific type of results. The SICW's «material well-being» domain includes six indicators and indicators reflecting the availability of resources for a child and his family to achieve the ultimate goals of his development.

The paper presents the results of testing the «material well-being» subindex based on data for 2020–2022 at the regional level. They make it possible to analyze the dynamics of this subindex, compare the levels of economic well-being of children in Russian regions, objectively evaluate achievements and highlight problems in ensuring children's well-being in general.

REGIONAL STATISTICS

56-67 1761
Abstract

The article presents the results of the study of cooperative interactions of the region forming industries of the Altai Territory.

The scale and nature of the cooperative relationships of organizations of the industrial and agricultural enterprises are revealed. Special attention is paid to the spatial aspects of cooperative ties. The mechanisms of formation and development of these interactions are identified and characterized. The article systematizes reasons for the formation of relationships and the search for cooperation partners, as well as reveals factors that influence this.

The authors assessed the benefits of interactions between organizations, and an approach to evaluating the effectiveness of industrial coope- ration was proposed and tested.

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS

68-76 348
Abstract

This scientific and information review presents the author's position on current issues of migration statistics that were discussed during the International Workshop organized by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe and took place on May 6–8, 2024, in Geneva (Switzerland). The paper covers the views of seminar participants regarding the new Recommendations on statistics of refugees and internally displaced persons and presents summaries of individual reports on a wide range of issues. The discussion of the new Recommendations demonstrated that they need to be further promoted and that countries primarily focus on their own context and the specifics of the situation about forced migrants they admit. Presentations on other topics showed that progress is visible in almost all countries, both in the expanding use of different migration data sources and methods of working with them. Statistical agencies themselves act as analytical centers, coordinating data collection and processing methods, thereby increasing the capacity and quality of migration analysis and improving the international comparability of migration data. In the author's opinion, the workshop materials can be useful for users and producers of migration statistics, since they not only broaden professional horizons, but also introduce to the latest developments in the global statistical community. This contributes to a better understanding of the current challenges of developing and improving national migration statistics.

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ISSN 2313-6383 (Print)
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)