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Vol 31, No 3 (2024)
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ORGANIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF STATE STATISTICS

 
5-9 214
Abstract

At the Final Collegium of the Federal State Statistics Service, held on 23 April 2024, Rosstat summarized results of its activities in 2023 and outlined workplans to design development strategy for Rosstat and the system of state statistics until 2030. 

QUESTIONS OF METHODOLOGY

10-34 166
Abstract

These Recommendations for compiling balance sheet items were developed as part of the implementation of the Program for the Development of Statistics in the member-states of the Commonwealth of Independent States in 2023. The objective of the work was to prepare methodological tools for constructing a food balance sheet (FBS) for the most important types of food in the Commonwealth countries.
Methodological principles for the construction of FBS were drawn up based on recommendations from FAO and other international organizations, adapted to the conditions of agriculture the availability of statistical data and administrative information in the CIS countries. The paper covers approaches to data imputation and economic calculations used in the FBS formation. Recommendations for compiling FBS items for each of the essential foods nationwide have been elaborated. The authors focused on determining the set of necessary parameters and approaches to their calculation for constructing FBS items

MATHEMATICAL AND STATISTICAL METHODS IN ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING

35-52 372
Abstract

The article examines the results of the socio-economic development of Russia in 2023, analyzes trends and provides forecasts for the strategic development of the national economy as a whole and its leading industries for 2024–2025, using mathematical and statistical methods.
Based on macroeconomic statistics, a comparative analysis of development trends in the Russian and world economies is carried out, primarily in terms of such key development indicators as gross domestic product (GDP), industrial production, investment, inflation, and foreign trade. The authors identified bottlenecks and assessed the impact of new strategic initiatives on forecasts of socio-economic development in the period under review. The shortcomings of the current management system are analyzed, and measures aimed at overcoming the structural crisis are proposed. The need to improve state socio-economic policy is substantiated.
It is noted that the Russian economy, despite the strengthening of sanctions by the collective West, has increased the sustainability of its development and the level of technological and scientific sovereignty. The article highlights shortcomings and a number of unresolved issues of import substitution and imperfect logistics of production and foreign economic relations, which create threats of decline of GDP and the level of technological sovereignty in the future.
The paper substantiates the possibility of transforming all sectors and spheres of the national economy when implementing the plan presented in the Address of the President of the Russian Federation to the Federal Assembly.

SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC STUDIES

53-64 219
Abstract

One of the national development goals relates to realizing human potential and educating a socially responsible person, which, among other things, requires strengthening the state's role in preventing crimes, primarily among adolescents. In this regard, there is a need to quantify the impact of social spending budgets on the level of juvenile delinquency. The article substantiates a methodological approach to assessing the effects of expenditures on secondary vocational education and youth policy on the number of minors convicted of various crimes. In the study, the authors evaluated regression based on a fixed-effects model with the standard errors Driscoll – Kraay. Econometric modelling was based on panel data on 83 subjects of the Russian Federation for the period 2010–2020. The statistical data of the official websites of the Federal State Statistics Service, the Federal Treasury and the Prosecutor General's Office of the Russian Federation served as the information base of the study. Based on the simulation results, conclusions were drawn about the positive impact of increasing budget expenditures on secondary vocational education and youth policy, as a share of GRP, on reducing juvenile delinquency. The influence of control variables (income level, divorce rate, urbanization, general crime, etc.) was also confirmed. For the first time, the results obtained on Russian data significantly complement the conclusions of foreign econometric studies on similar issues

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS

65-79 241
Abstract

The present article covers key findings of the study aimed at proposing an index method for analyzing fertility in the Republic of Kazakhstan and its regions using official statistical information. The study's relevance arose from the fact that in the 1990s, Kazakhstan experienced a significant population decline due to migration outflow and a decrease in the birth rate. The strategy for development of the Republic of Kazakhstan until the year 2030 set the task of overcoming the trend of the population decline. An assertive demographic policy has become one of the country's long-term development strategies.
The paper presents a methodology for estimating the increments of children born depending on the number of women of reproductive age, changes in age-related fertility rates, and structural shifts in the age groups of women. The developed methodology of the index analysis of fertility was tested, which made it possible to obtain new data on the dynamics of fertility in Kazakhstan and its regions from 2009 to 2022 and the influence of individual factors on it. Calculations showed that, in general, the number of children born was influenced mainly by age-related fertility rates and structural shifts in the ages of women of reproductive age.
Significant differences in the dynamics and impact of individual factors were observed in the regions of Kazakhstan, which in the study were divided into four groups. This shall allow, later on, to carry out targeted demographic measures, taking regional characteristics into account and being mindful of the current demographic situation when planning socio-economic policy in the field of family and demography of the regions.

80-90 220
Abstract

This article presents the actions implemented by the Interstate Statistical Committee of the CIS (CIS-STAT) in knowledge management information systems, preparation of linked data and «smart» (semantically rich) metadata as part of the CIS data hub that is under construction. Based on the analysis of international experience and after conducting their own long-term research, the authors set out the purpose behind the work – to increase the efficiency and potential of using statistical data by ensuring an unambiguous and meaningful data interpretation, including in consumer information systems. To reach this goal, the authors proposed new approaches and technologies for building a knowledge management system based on the semantic network, which made it possible to link machine-interpretable semantic models with human-readable knowledge representations. Addressing the objective of organizing knowledge about statistical methodology is a key to increasing the potential for using linked data and enabling collaborative processing of statistical data. The proposed methodological and technological approach is aimed at contextualizing a subject area used to develop linked data and generate «smart» metadata. It also provides new opportunities for consumers to work with statistical data and metadata – their interpretation, meaningful analysis, comparison and joint processing. Along with a description of the systems operating cycle, the article provides a meaningful analysis of the issues of harmonizing statistical terminology, identified by practical work with the «Labor Statistics» domain. Special attention is paid to the role of the expert community in developing a knowledge management system

PAGES OF HISTORY

91-97 191
Abstract

The article considers the history of the System of National Accounts (SNA) and the main stages of its evolution in domestic statistics. A transition to the SNA was made from the Balance of the National Economy (BNE) – a system of macroeconomic indicators used in the USSR. It is noted that the experience of compiling BNE tables helped soviet statisticians master the SNA relatively fast.
The authors give special attention to 2008 SNA innovations and issues that Rosstat deals with in modern conditions. They, in particular, address evaluating the performance of the unobserved economy, treatment of holding gains, and computation of output of financial intermediaries. The authors comment on problems of treatment of outlays on research and development, military equipment in context with implementing the 2008 SNA, and issues with estimating GDP at constant prices. It is indicated that Rosstat is currently developing all the main accounts provided for by the 2008 SNA international standard. These data are used to guide economic and social government policy.
In conclusion, it is noted that Rosstat today is preparing to implement the provisions of the updated version of the 2008 SNA international standard, which is to be adopted at the UN Statistical Commission’s spring session of 2025. It will be a new stage in the evolution of national accounting in Russia.



ISSN 2313-6383 (Print)
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)