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Vol 30, No 6 (2023)
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QUESTIONS OF METHODOLOGY

5-20 580
Abstract

The paper presents results of the first stage of research on the construction of social accounting matrices (SAMs) for the Russian Federation as part of the HSE University study on statistical assessment of households’ economic behaviour. The author analyses the methodological foun- dations of SAM compilation, their connection with the System of National Accounts (SNA) and their use in macroeconomic analysis. Special attention is paid to the application of SAM in evaluating exogenous impacts, including multiplier effects, arising in all spheres of the national economy at governing decision-making and implementation of economic policy projects.

The paper reviews aggregated social accounting matrices for the Russian Federation for the year 2020 that were compiled according to the SNA methodology and based on the G. Pyatt and A. Roe modified model. The author proposes the scheme of accounts partial trans- formation enhancing the reflection of direct income flows between institutional sectors. The properties of SAM as a static economic impact evaluation model are reviewed, and for illustration purposes, results of experimental computation of the effect of changed demand from the Rest of the World are considered.

Analysis of areas of SAM application and its development as a tool for macroeconomic research highlights the importance of development methods of a detailed representation of the structure of household incomes and expenditures in social accounting matrices. It will foster solutions to poverty, inequality and connected social problems. It is noted that, with increased attention to the social aspects of macroeconomic accounting, SAM can become a major tool for measuring well-being and household income formation and distribution processes in macroeconomic statistics.

STATISTICS IN SOCIO-ECONOMIC STUDIES

21-34 272
Abstract

The article presents the results of an economic and statistical analysis of Russian agricultural exports from 2012 to 2021 – a period of intensive growth during which revenue in foreign markets doubled, and the country entered the top twenty leaders in food exports. The in- fluence of the factors of physical volume and price on the dynamics of exports of products from the agricultural sector of Russia is analyzed, and a change in the assessment of the contribution of individual product categories to export growth was revealed when recalculating indica- tors from current prices to comparable prices. It has been established that average prices for Russian agricultural products are half the world pri-ces, which leads to a lack of income from the export of agricultural products for Russia (on average, about 4.9 billion US dollars per year for the last five years). The main reason for this deviation is that a significant share of the structure of Russian food exports is made up of products with a low degree of processing. Additionally, there is a situation with lower prices for some Russian goods of a comparable range, primarily in the food and processing industries.

An assessment of the risks to the sustainability of Russian agribusiness in the event of a disruption in export supplies showed that, given the low level of development of intra-industry trade, domestic production remains quite vulnerable to a potential reduction in exports when foreign trade restrictions are introduced. If trade chains are broken, only 20% of exports can be redirected to the domestic market to replace imports.

An analysis of the achievement of targets for the development of Russian agricultural exports in 2016–2021 was carried out and indicates that, despite its significant overall growth during the period under study, in some years its dynamics lagged behind the values established in state programs, even considering their repeated adjustments. This is largely due to the dependence of the growth of Russian exports of agricultural products on the increase in the production of grain and oilseeds, which is influenced, among other things, by random weather factors. Thus, based on data for individual years, it is impossible to judge the success or failure in the implementation of Russian agricultural export devel- opment programs, and the methodology for assessing the achievement of target indicators itself requires improvement.

35-50 397
Abstract

Building upon a series of the author’s prior publications in the journal Voprosy Statistiki (in 2019–2022), this new article further deve- lops the idea of applying National Transfer Accounts (NTAs) as a toolkit for economic and demographic analysis of a wide range of macro patterns in the economy, both nationally and on the regional level. The author highlights the NTAs' practical utility, allowing for a more detailed, compared to the System of National Accounts (SNA), analysis of the reallocation of financial resources, including through the prism of dependents and those who finance them. It includes a concise description of the current research concept and the methodology approach chosen for the analysis.

Based on the author's calculations of the analyzed indicators at the national and regional levels, the body of the article confirms that the influence of the age structure of society on consumer spending of the population manifests itself in the priorities of consumer demand. On the macro level, the comparative example of Russia, Sweden and Mexico shows commonalities and specificities in the financing of con- sumer demand by resources of the private and public sectors and the corresponding timespans of running deficit-free economic lifecycle in these countries. As a comparative framework for the Russian economy, the countries with the most (Sweden) and least (Mexico) generous state subsidies for the consumption of the population in the form of current transfer support were selected. In the regional aspect of the analysis, the structural characteristics of the age profile of the regions (from 2011 to 2020) were compared with the accumulated (per capita) dynamics of regional consumer spending with a pronounced age bias (on education and healthcare). The regional results were analyzed in the context of the overall economic situation. The article illustrates the qualitatively different consumer demand priorities of the «young» and «advanced- in-years» regions by the comparative infographics case studying the Republic of Ingushetia and Tver Region (regions with diametrically opposite features of the demographic structure). The author has dealt with consumer behavior models across various ages in the context of the Strauss-Howe generational theory, devised by William Strauss and Neil Howe.

The author demonstrates how the COVID-19 pandemic impacted the sources of financing household spending on the level of the economy as a whole.

The concluding section draws methodological parallels between national transfer accounts and such summary indicators as human de- velopment indices and the UN Sustainable Development Goals to be considered in macroeconomic and regional analysis

SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC STUDIES

51-64 723
Abstract

The main purpose of the study is to determine the differences in factors influencing alcohol consumption in Russia (among urban and rural residents).

The first part of the article provides the author's assessment of studies in which place of residence is considered as a specific factor influencing alcohol consumption. Attention is paid to works that focus on differences in factors affecting alcohol consumption depending on the place of residence.

The main section of the article contains a description of the empirical testing of the hypotheses based on statistical data for 2012–2021 from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) NRU HSE. The author used panel logistic regression with random individual effects for the probability of alcohol consumption and a panel Tobin model for the volume of alcohol consumption. The study revealed differences in the degree of influence of the level of education and religiosity, marital status and the presence of children on the level of alcohol consumption among urban and rural residents. Thus, a higher level of religiosity reduces the likelihood of alcohol consumption by rural residents; the volume of alcohol consumption decreases with a rise in the level of religiosity in the city. It is also shown that the presence of children in families reduces per capita alcohol consumption only in villages.

According to the author, the findings help make more effective and targeted recommendations for implementing state alcohol policy.

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS

77-86 455
Abstract

Building on the analysis of the current state of state statistics in Russia, the author formulates development priorities for the national statistical system (NSS) amid digitalization and scarcity of resources. The paper explains the NSS focus on the use of records and state registers as the information basis of official statistics. It is proposed to consider Big Data as a source of additional information that requires verification and adjustments when generating official statistics.

The article justifies the need to preserve the system of traditional statistical surveys that allows for measuring phenomena and processes in society and the economy, including characteristics that are not registered when events are recorded by authorities. The author emphasizes the relevance of this system when implementing an essential function of state statistical bodies – creating an integrated information and statistical space in the country.

VOPROSY STATISTIKI IN 2023



ISSN 2313-6383 (Print)
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)