QUESTIONS OF METHODOLOGY
The article addresses the problem of measuring the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sector and its relationship to the digital economy as defined in the OECD «Guidelines for Supply-Use Tables for the Digital Economy». Analysis of various concepts of the digital economy shows that the ICT sector is its key element. It is stressed that, in line with the OECD recommendations, the measurement of the digital economy should be based on the SNA satellite account, the core element of which are the Digital Supply-Use Tables (Digital SUTs). This approach enables to reflect most fully within a single statistical model integration of all phases of digital products (goods and services) circulation in the national economy.
It is noted that the construction of ICT Supply-Use Tables (SUTs) is a critical self-contained task, as it provides a measurement framework for both digital (regardless of the model to be adopted) and (more broadly) information economy.
It is stressed that the ability to capture the use of ICT products as well as the cost of their production depends significantly on the identification and valuation of digital products and industries in the Digital SUTs. The identification of such industries is now a major challenge because of the lack of separate activities in the existing industrial classifications that are characteristic for their constituent units.
The article concludes with a presentation of the pilot estimates of ICT Sector SUTs core indicators obtained by the authors at the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence, HSE University. The contribution of the sector to the GDP of the Russian Federation is analysed and its inter-sectoral linkages, both on the demand and supply side, are assessed. It is concluded that the full implementation of the Digital SUTs depends on the inclusion in the new International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC) the additions necessary to identify and evaluate digital products and industries.
MATHEMATICAL AND STATISTICAL METHODS IN ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING
The article is devoted to laying out methodological foundations for assessing the level of inflation in modern Russia. It justifies using aggregate (integral) indices to characterize price processes and determine strategic development priorities.
The use of inflation indicators used in the international practice in Russia does not provide the necessary level of reliability of information about the ongoing inflationary processes in various sectors of the national economy. It does not allow us to objectively assess the current state of socio-economic development to timely capture and account for changes in the trends of strategic development. As a result, the quality of analytical work, first and foremost carried out by real sector development institutions, is reduced, which affects the effectiveness of decisions made by economic entities and public administration bodies.
The authors argue that the aggregate inflation index shows a higher degree of variability in the dynamics of inflationary processes than the consumer price index since it accounts for changes in the most significant sectors of the economy, the social sphere and the financial sector.
The article proposes an improved method for constructing an aggregate inflation index based on mathematical and statistical methods. It is shown that the use of an aggregated inflation index increases the objectivity of the assessment of economic growth and social progress, which makes it possible to more quickly predict the dynamics of costs and results with a sufficiently high degree of forecast accuracy.
The need for regular adjustment of the composition of private indicators taken into account in the formation of the aggregate inflation index is justified by including new, more relevant indicators and excluding those that have lost their relevance.
Results of the study are the conclusions obtained by analyzing the dynamic series of aggregate and partial inflation indices formed on the basis of the methodology proposed by the authors.
The ability to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) is a critical success factor for the development of any participant in the local market. One of the indicators that characterize the investment attractiveness is the economic value added (EVA). It reflects the market assessment of the company's profit potential. Some EVA assessment methodologies include the country risk assessment – a factor that is beyond control. This study analyzes the impact of this indicator on the investment attractiveness of an organization. The authors estimated the economic value added for some of the largest Russian companies using methodologies that take into account the country's risk level, as well as those methodologies that do not take it into account. The calculations used adjustments for EVA in line with specific features of Russian accounting. As a result, it was revealed that, regardless of industry affiliation, the investment attractiveness of Russian organizations decreases when the country's risk factor is included in its assessment.
The article justifies the relevance of the developed approach to the assessment of investment attractiveness of companies based on country risk level as a factor that impacts the ability of organizations to generate profit, making it possible to detect hidden management problems. According to the authors, the application of this approach not only contributes to the solution of long-term and medium-term tasks of business development (for example, the creation of its infrastructure) but also greatly facilitates the entry of organizations into international markets.
One of the authors' conclusions of the study is that using the methodological tools developed by them for analytical purposes requires improving the management of the investment attractiveness of an organization and, consequently, its objective assessment. The structure of economic value added can serve as a basis for making management decisions related to increasing investment attractiveness. According to the authors, the provisions formulated in the article can serve as a methodological guide for organizing business valuation based on the EVA in the Russian context. Results of the study can be of interest to managers, current owners of companies, and potential investors.
STATISTICAL METHODS IN SOCIO-ECONOMIC STUDIES
The purpose of the article is to analyze the technological expectations of managers of Russian enterprises from the manufacturing industry in the face of changes in the external economic environment. Firstly, the authors have calculated a specially developed «index of fulfillment» of technological expectations, reflecting the ratio of the expectations of the introduction of digital technologies formed in the previous period and an increase in the real level of implementation. Secondly, using regression analysis, the authors investigated the mechanisms of the formation of technological expectations of managers in various conditions: non-crisis 2018, pre-crisis 2019, and crisis 2020. The influence of the three mechanisms was tested in intertemporal context: the «inertial» one, which presupposes the preservation of the expectations formed in the past in the current period; «adaptive» which involves adjusting expectations in accordance with the current dynamics of technology implementation; «predictive» which implies the connection of expectations with the future level of implementation.
The basis for empirical calculations was the data of annual business tendency surveys of digital activity of Russian manufacturing enterprises for 2018–2020. The aggregate sample of surveyed enterprises for three years included more than 3000 enterprises from 23 manufacturing industries. The paper studied patterns of implementation of 19 digital technologies, most of which, according to specialists, belong to Industry 4.0.
The results obtained indicate that technological expectations are characterized by great heterogeneity in terms of feasibility. Regression analysis showed that all three identified mechanisms can play a role, but their influence varies. In particular, when a crisis occurs, the adaptive mechanism plays a key role, and the inertial mechanism becomes irrelevant.
The results of this study indicate that Russia is characterized by the initial and transitional nature of digital transformation in the manufacturing industry, with technological development achieved through «breakthroughs» rather than a steady process of modernization. The main conclusion of the work is that external uncertainty greatly affects the evolution of technological expectations, destroying their continuity from previous plans and negatively affecting the predictive capabilities.
SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC STUDIES
The introductory part of the article specifies the aim and objectives of the study, reflecting some of the important outcomes of the interregional differentiation in the financial behavior of the population of individual Russian territories (in more detail – regions of the Far Eastern Federal District, FEFD).
The main section of the article identifies interregional differences in the financial behavior of the population of the considered regions of the country, including the FEFD territories, based on statistical methodology and using official statistics. The authors conducted a comparative interregional analysis of the structure of consumer spending, average per capita deposits, and public debt on loans granted by credit institutions for the period 2018–2020. Specific statistics show that the FEFD regions are experiencing a negative trend of accelerating the debt of the population to credit institutions.
The article concludes with outcomes of an interregional comparative analysis of the considered characteristics, reflecting the emerging negative trends in the financial behavior of the population, showing that parts of the eastern part of the country lag markedly behind the general trend in social and economic development.
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
The purpose of this study is for the author to summarize approaches and methods for assessing availability, identifying forms and types of relations between characteristics of environmental quality and international trade, and also to test the gravity theory of trade as such a method (on the example of the Republic of Belarus).
The author has investigated modern economic works devoted to the study of the influence of trade liberalization on environmental pollution, the pollution haven hypothesis, the environmental Kuznets curve, the Porter hypothesis, etc., as well as the studies aimed at confirming or refuting these hypotheses, has systematized modern approaches to assessing the relations between trade and environmental indicators.
Based on the panel data for the period from 1995 to 2019, the author has constructed the gravity models of trade (separately for export and import) of the Republic of Belarus with the EAEU partner countries and neighboring countries (Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Ukraine), taking into account the environmental impact (the carbon dioxide emissions as the proxy variable of pollution). The simulation results have confirmed the theoretical provisions of the gravity theory. In addition, a significant effect of an increase in carbon dioxide emissions of countries – trade partners of the Republic of Belarus on its imports has been revealed.
PAGES OF HISTORY
The article covers milestones of the system of national accounts (SNA) development. In particular, it is noted that the SNA was developed in response to the need of governments of the major market economies in macroeconomic statistics to guide decision-making for combatting the effects of the Great Economic Depression of 1929–1933. The authors address the SNA evolution in a context of the development of concepts, definitions, and classifications, furnishing the basis for a system of interrelated and mutually agreed measures of economic development at the macro level.
Development of the SNA theory and methodology was closely linked with real change in a global economy, reflected the emergence of new forms of organization of economic process, new methods of financing investments, the growing role of foreign investments, globalization.
The authors note a valuable contribution of a galaxy of eminent economists of the last century to the SNA theory and methodology elaboration. The article discusses at some length the role of international organizations in the development of theoretical and methodological foundations of the SNA. After the Second World War, these organizations released several critical documents with recommendations on the SNA compilation, recognized as international standards. The authors analyze the current international standard – the SNA 2008. In particular, the new treatment of expenditures on research and development and weapons systems. This treatment introduces a very noticeable adjustment in understanding important structural characteristics of the modern economy in many countries.
The final part of the article considers issues of developing the SNA in national statistics, previously focused on the balance of the national economy (BNH). There are specific features of the transition from the world’s first developed system of interrelated macroeconomic indicators, the BNH, to the international standard, the SNA, adapted to modern realities of unctioning of market economy in Russia.
CHRONICLE, INFORMATION
VOPROSY STATISTIKI IN 2021
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)