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Vol 27, No 2 (2020)
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DEVELOPMENT OF STATE STATISTICS

5-16 1702
Abstract

After a detailed argumentation of the study’s relevance, this article discusses the prospects for introducing the concept of linked open statistics produced within the framework of a single information environment that ensures efficient production, dissemination, and reuse of statistical and administrative data. The implementation of this qualitatively new concept based on technological innovations and aimed to meet rapidly growing user demands is a key task of digital transformation, defined by the Government of the Russian Federation in the field of official statistics. The major part of open data concerns statistics such as demographic, economic and social indicators. Describing and presenting them in the form of linked open statistics sets an important background for accelerating socio-economic development by introducing new socially significant state, municipal, non-commercial and commercial services/products.

Linked Open Statistical Data (LOSD) allows performing analysis based on a coordinated, integrated information environment as an alternative to using disparate and often controversial data sets. National statistical institutes and government bodies in many countries, together with international organizations, have already chosen the paradigm of linked open statistics. The authors discuss the advantages of this approach, as well as its practical application in international projects.

The article presents the examples and best practices of linked open statistics in a number of publications and strategic documents within the European Statistical System. It also shows the constraints of the linked open statistics development due to the lack of accessible ontologies and standards - the extensions necessary to meet the requirements for classification and management of various concepts in statistics domain. The analysis of projects and initiatives carried out in the article reflects the possibilities and prospects of solving this problem in the field of state statistics. The authors formulate a set of recommendations based both on the analysis of international practice and on the results of their own development experience within the research project «Center of Semantic Integration».

QUESTIONS OF METHODOLOGY

17-33 1237
Abstract

With the exhaustion of the extensive factors of economic growth and the shift of development goals towards the quality of life, the quality of growth becomes the main condition for the further development of the country’s economy and social progress. This article addresses the multifaceted concept of the quality of economic growth and its content not only on the part of growth characteristics as dynamism, stability, consistency, efficiency, and progressiveness but also results of social development and inclusiveness of growth, as well as their determining factors. The interconnection, mutual support, and competitiveness of selected components of growth and its factors, including dynamism and growth inclusiveness are reviewed. The authors focus on the importance of understanding inclusiveness as creating equal, non-discriminatory conditions for the development of all population groups and economic entities, and not just the even distribution of development results. It is noted that the quality of growth is relevant as a link between current growth and sustainable development in the long term. It is essential to consider the quality of growth not only as a result of development but as a factor and condition for further progress, which is not yet fully reflected in the modern systems of development indices used by international organizations. A system of indicators of the quality of economic development should be developed according to the expansion of the concept of quality of growth. Using the advancement of the theory of endogenous growth makes it possible to assess the role of individual factors in economic growth. Along with fixed asset investments, the leading role in modern conditions is taken on by the quality of human capital, in the formation of which participate education, healthcare, science, and culture, while education, taking into account its vital role in the emergence of a new (VI) technological paradigm, deals with raising and nurturing the creative generation of young people who will shape the new order. The contribution of these industries to the long-term growth of the economy significantly exceeds their development costs. Considerable attention is paid to the study of factors determining the quality of education in general, especially at the regional level. It is noted that amidst the development of modern technologies responsible for the transfer of data and knowledge, as well as standardization and regulation of the processes of providing services, it is necessary to maintain the content of education services, their focus on the shaping of a creative personality and transferring creative work skills. Only this will ensure the country’s participation and its benefits in the creation of a new technological structure.

The article examines factors that most affect the level and quality of education, and touch upon differentiation of regions according to these indicators. Among them: the state of the material and technical base, personnel availability and qualifications, terms for the provision of services, and others. The authors delve into the influence of region resource provision factors, remoteness from labour force centers of gravity and emerging research centers, as well as national particularities and historical background of the regions. The data on the “personnel migration” of young people of educational and post-educational age are presented. Relevant conclusions are made about some depletion of this resource in several remote regions. The efforts of the regions and the redistribution of funds through the federal budget, as well as business eff orts, are not enough to reduce the regional differentiation in education quality. This requires tailored solutions allowing to use the potential of young people from remote regions and regions not affected by scientific centralization, as an important human development factor. The paper considers directions for solving this problem.

IN THE COURSE OF DISCUSSION

34-47 2061
Abstract

The article addresses the questions regarding organizing a statistical study of one of the most dynamic sectors of the economy, based on the use of artificial intelligence AI. Given the novelty and fundamental nature of the topic, the paper focuses on the subject of artificial intelligence, understanding its essential aspects, economic nature, and its driving force for development in order to have clear guidelines for their reflection in current statistical accounting and reporting. The article demonstrates the contradictions of AI development, duality, and the variability of building strong and weak AI models.

The methodological basis for the statistical study of artificial intelligence is provided by the basic OECD Guidelines for big technologies such as biotechnology, nanotechnology, information, and communication technologies. To be specific, the paper elaborates on science and research, technology and technology base. The author outlines the main technical questions related to statistical observation: basic and list-based definitions of artificial intelligence, identifies characteristics of enterprises and organizations that are subject to statistical accounting, including start-ups. Specific statistical indicators are indicated; are shown drivers and growth segments of the AI market.

Specific attention is aimed at the topic of interdisciplinarity. Particularly the author touches upon brief historical background of the origin of the AI concept, nature of weak and strong artificial intelligence, and also shows major trends in worldview transformations. The paper examines areas of concern for the formation of the research potential of universal (strong) artificial intelligence.

The author describes the technological aspects of the progress in artificial intelligence, the relevance of its analysis from the perspective of a complex of big technologies, the basic contours of interaction between various fundamental and applied technologies in building the single technology platform for the creation and study of artificial intelligence.

With the use of specific statistical materials, the article presents forms of the global and Russian market of artificial intelligence technologies and demonstrates its key growth drivers.

DEMOGRAPHIC STATISTICS

48-62 1525
Abstract

Based on official statistics, the author tries to address the question of why the infant mortality rate in Russia is significantly higher than might be expected given the measures taken to protect the health of pregnant women and newborns. In the introduction, the author explains the relevance of studying inequality in the level of infant mortality among the population of modern Russia as a factor holding back the positive downward trend.

After presenting the latest history of the evolution of the information and statistical base for population studies on the subjects under review, the author confirms the approach according to which it is advisable to work with data for real generations when analyzing the differentiation of infant mortality and generations born in 2014-2016 are chosen as the object of analysis.

To determine the relevance of individual factors contributing to infant mortality, the author cross-tabulated raw data. Data on such initial characteristics (factors) as the birth order of the child, whether a mother is in a contracted civil marriage or not, mother’s level of education, were grouped by age groups of mothers. The use of cross-tabulation allowed to affirm not only the influence of individual factors on the level of infant mortality but also a quantitative differentiation between them. The article concludes the extent to which the overall level of infant mortality is determined by mortality rates from individual causes of death.

A significant part of the article is presented in the format of author generalization using statistical methods regarding the educational differences of mothers, which have become differentiation factors in infant mortality rates.

The socio-demographic analysis based on official statistics has confirmed not only some hypotheses as to why, despite the relatively rapid decrease in infant mortality in Russia in recent years, its level remains higher than in almost all European countries with reliable demographic statistics, but also to reveal the extent of the inequality of infant mortality in our country.

The author argues that the reason why Russia lags behind many countries with the positive downward infant mortality trend is strongly associated with causes of death from conditions arising in the perinatal period as well as congenital disorders. This suggests that the level of medical care for pregnant women and newborns in Russia is still lower than in developed European countries. It also has to be assumed that different educational groups have unequal access to quality health care. А proactive approach to life as well as a progressive achievement of the right to choose a medical institution and a doctor - is one of the important directions for resolving a whole set of national health care issues.

63-73 1029
Abstract

The article introduces the results of the study of selected aspects of the reproductive behavior of the population of the Trans-Baikal Territory at the current stage. The objective of the study is to analyze the trends in the border region in population reproduction, age-related structural changes, issues of transformation in the institution of family and marriage.

The novelty of this research work is in the performed regional demographic analysis of the reproductive behavior of Trans-Baikal Territory residents compared to all-Russian indicators and data by the federal districts. The authors revealed the fact that the reproductive indicators as applied to the population in the Trans-Baikal Territory are characterized by the best values, however, this level is reached mainly through the Buryat and Tatar ethnic groups. The Slavic ethnic group, though most numerous in the region, has the lowest potential for the expanded reproduction of the population. Depopulation processes in the Territory are less pronounced, however, a decrease in the proportion of young people and an increase in older able-bodied ages are already evident in 1/4 of the Trans-Baikal Territory. Seemingly high fertility rates in the region are associated with the realization of reproductive potentials in the population born in the 1970s and 1980s and have a short-term effect.

The authors established that the observed trends in the age structure of the female population of the fertile age of the Trans-Baikal Territory are similar to transformations in the country, but with a lesser regression degree. At the present stage, they cause a shift in the main demographic burden on a group of women aged 25 to 29 years, whose share in the total female population of reproductive age is declining. Concerning the matrimonial (marriage) behavior of the population in the Trans-Baikal Territory, a greater regression of family-marriage relations is observed. The transformation of family values has recently been reflected in an increasing number of divorces in the region.

It is the authors’ opinion, that the depletion of demographic resources of the border region reduces the level of its demographic security and makes the regions’ border space more «permeable», which also affects the countries’ economic security.

ENVIRONMENT STATISTICS

74-84 1250
Abstract

This article outlines climate security of the Russian Federation and its regions based on official (state and administrative) statistics and widely used statistical analytical tools. Building on the conceptual authors’ position on possibilities of managing natural and climatic risks and increasing national and regional resilience against negative impact of natural and climatic factors (climatic stability), the article examines system of indicators of «climate intensity» and «energy intensity».

The article bases conclusions concerning the decrease of natural and climatic risks to Russian economy in recent years on the results of the conducted analysis. These positive trends are the result of adoption of the 2009 Climate Doctrine. However, growth of economy is still provided generally with use of traditional energy sources - non-renewable minerals. It leads to considerable greenhouse gases concentration in the atmosphere.

The assessment of the regions of Russia by the indicator «GRP energy intensity» allowed to identify territorial entities with the greatest relative impact on the climate due to high energy consumption. The top 10 regions for this indicator include mainly those with developed metallurgy, energy, mining and manufacturing industries. Less than one third of constituent entities of the Russian Federation have energy intensity of the economy below the Russian average.

The work justifies the feasibility of statistical accounting of greenhouse gas emissions by region for integrated assessment of climate risks. The results of such an assessment can then be used in the formulation and implementation of national and regional climate policies.

SCIENCE AND EDUCATION

85-95 706
Abstract

The article considers the importance of studying the System of National Accounts (SNA) at economic universities for increasing knowledge on functioning economy at macro level and acquiring broad economic thinking skills. In this context, the article considers underlying SNA concepts, definitions, and classifications that determine the content of its key aggregates (GDP, GNI, National wealth and others). The article clarifies specific types of knowledge that can be obtained by studying the SNA. These pertain to the content of the economic process at the macro level, the role of economic transactions carried out by economic agents, measuring different aspects of the economic process, rates of economic growth, distribution and redistribution of incomes, transactions in financial instruments.

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS

96-107 1013
Abstract

Intensive discussions on a wide range of topics took place at the conference which was focused on measuring income and wealth in CIS countries and Eastern Europe, organized by IARIW and Higher School of Economics in Moscow in September 2019. The article deals with some topics of the conference.

As the macroeconomic analysis shows, the impact of globalization on the distribution of global income is one of the factors changing the global centers of power. Research on multifactor productivity, the slowdown of which is observed according to some estimates during two recent decades, becomes more important. The development of tools using the purchasing power parities provides additional capacity in assessing the stratification of economies and helps expand macroeconomic estimates and analysis’ base.

Along with the macroeconomic topics, the article deals with the key points of discussion on measuring income. One of the focus areas today is assessing poverty based on the multidimensional approach which allows enhancing substantively the poverty analysis. While considering the income stratification, the attention in the article is also paid to the definition of the middle class basing on the expenditures’ pattern, in addition to a standard definition based on the income level.

CHRONICLE, INFORMATION

108 368
Abstract
On the 75th Anniversary of the Great Victory.


ISSN 2313-6383 (Print)
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)