DEVELOPMENT OF STATE STATISTICS
STATISICAL ANALYSIS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROCESSES
The article deals with current issues related to modern processes of lending to the population in Russia. The article aims to identify possible risks and consequences of over-lending to individuals based on the analysis of statistical data. Research objectives include analysing data dynamics of volume of the issued housing loans for the past 13 years, including mortgage loans; tracing the dynamics of household debt (total and for this type of lending) in rubles and foreign currency in macro-regions (Federal districts) of the Russian Federation; and describing the features and trends of car loans in our country. Results of the study revealed an uneven increase in the amount of debt on loans of the population living in different macro-regions of Russia. The authors concluded that the share of personal debt to credit institutions on mortgages «inside» of housing loan debt from 2006 to 2018 has more than tripled. In general, reasons for changes in the credit behaviour of Russians lie in lowered interest rates and the fear of their future growth, chances of refinancing previously taken loans, concerns about rising inflation, pent-up demand for housing and durable goods. A further increase in the growth of consumer loans and the volume of public debt on them may lead to the overheating of the credit market.
REGIONAL STATISTICS
The article provides an economic and statistical review of the structural changes in the economy of the Amur Region from 2004 to 2016. An analysis of regional statistics on the industrial structure of gross value added (GVA) over the period under review allowed the author to identify quantitative parameters identifying economic activities that determine the characteristics of the modern economy of the region, and those that have not been developed.
Based on statistical calculations, it was concluded that leading economic activities in the Amur Region are «Transport and Communication», «Mining and quarrying», «Wholesale and retail trade».
The primary objective of the study was to determine the degree of intensity of structural shifts in the regional economy and identify the main trends of its development. The «absolute» gains and growth factors of the relative structural components of the GVA for the Amur Region for the period under review were calculated to characterize these structural changes.
According to the author, the calculations indicate the absence of a positive transformation in the structure of the regional economy. Thus, the intensive development of the commodity sectors of the economy continues, and the low growth rates of the manufacturing industries are noted. To carry out a summary assessment of structural changes in the regional economy, the author has calculated the linear and quadratic coefficients of the «absolute» structural changes. The results provide an opportunity to more accurately identify critical areas for investment, as well as support those economic activities that will allow the region to maximize its potential benefits.
FROM THE EDITORIAL MAIL
The article attempts to establish general approaches to statistical measurements of effects from a failure to take necessary environmental actions in the medium and long term (or, to use the author’s terminology, estimating the «costs of inaction»). It is emphasized such an assessment is closely related to the «precautionary principle», which implies the rejection of the use of innovative products and technologies due to lack of confidence in their safety for the health of the population and the environment. The paper addresses main problems associated with the practical application of the «precautionary principle», such as risk assessment and management, effective coordination between science and politics, as well as finding a reasonable balance between innovation and potential social and environmental damage.
An analysis of today’s most successful attempts to determine the costs of inaction has made it possible to identify methodological shortcomings of the «ethical» approach, which forces us to treat with some caution the estimated costs of future periods that arise in the case of an «insufficiently ambitious» environmental policy.
The example of determining the costs of inaction associated with the extraction of shale hydrocarbons by hydraulic fracturing (fracking), shows the present methodological difficulties in assessing the potential risks of environmental pollution and the direction of their solution. The author concludes that under conditions of a high degree of uncertainty at all stages of assessing the negative impact on the environment, the application of the «precautionary principle» can be based on an analysis of the degree of reversibility of the impact of innovative products and technologies.
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
This article considers the main changes in the European Statistics Code of Practice (Code of Practice) made in 2017; it addresses noticeable processes of transformation of legal frameworks and practices in some countries of the former USSR. There is also a brief analysis of the new opportunities that bring the introduction of this standard.
The paper presents most relevant revisions and additions to the Code of Practice, made in 2017 by the European Statistical System Committee, the main differences of the new version of the Quality Declaration of the European Statistical System. The paper addresses the feasibility of practical implementation of some standards of the revised document as well as information about the processes of transformation of the legal basis and practices in some countries of the former USSR.
The author concludes that the Code of Practice may serve as a basis for national statistical services to establish quality policy while aligning this international standard with national conditions can be beneficial for the development of legal framework for the official statistics.
The authors developed economic and statistical analysis on bilateral economic and trade and investment partnership between the Republic of Kyrgyzstan and the Russian Federation for the past decade and formulated proposals for the further coordination of long-term foreign economic policy.
The paper provides an analytical review of intercountry trade and investment cooperation with emphasis on manufacturing. It is based on data from various international organizations (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Eurasian Economic Commission) and the National statistical committee of the Kyrgyz Republic. Extensive statistical material supports the thesis on using the benefits of integration for the economy of the Kyrgyz Republic, even though it remains dependent on political fluctuations and has an underdeveloped business environment.
The authors examine the implementation of bilateral contracts, projects and agreements from 2008 to 2016, with an emphasis on critical long-term interests of two states, and discuss perspectives for trade and economic cooperation in the medium and long terms. They also cover questions regarding coordination of economic policy in the abovementioned areas. Considerable attention is given to evidence-based reasoning in favor of strengthening the Russian-Kyrgyz partnership in the field of trade and investment. There is also a need for statistical support for the implementation of joint programs to improve the sustainability and competitiveness of national economies, as well as a broad integration cooperation agenda within the Eurasian Economic Union and other associations.
INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION
PAGES OF HISTORY
The author considers the history of international comparisons of macroeconomic indicators carried out periodically from 1960th up to the end of the 1980th within the framework of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA). As a result of these comparisons extensive information on economies of the countries of this organisation was collected and processed; it was used to establish economic cooperation between the CMEA members. It is noted that the CMEA program is in many respects similar to the ongoing Program of international comparisons of the GDP (ICP) that is carried out following a decision by the UN Statistical Commission. This mainly concerns the computation methods of purchasing power parities. At the same time, the article considers some peculiarities of the CMEA methodology.
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)