QUESTIONS OF METHODOLOGY
The authors consider problems of implementation of SNA 2008 and perspectives of development of SNA as well as the possible topics for preparation of the next international standard of national accounts It is noted that main problems of implementation of SNA 2008 are associated with the new treatment of globalization, outlays on research and development, an output of central banks, as well as with securing relevant sources of primary data.
Some experts in national accounting believe that it is expedient to postpone revision of the SNA 2008 for a relatively long period of time and focus on improving analysis of selected aspects of economic process and on harmonizing with other systems of information such as system of business accounting, system of indicators of protection of environment, system of indicators of wellbeing of population. The matters of reliability and comparability of GDP are discussed in the article, it is noted that they are important in the context of international comparisons of GDP by purchasing power parities, carried out in accordance with the decision of UN Statistical Commission. It is in this context the authors indicate that implementation of internationally agreed definitions does not secure comparability of GDP and this conclusion is clarified.
MATHEMATICAL AND STATISTICAL METHODS IN ECONOMIC RESEARCH
This research focuses on forecasting situations of impending financial crisis (with potential bankruptcy) in real economy enterprises. By the term potential bankruptcy is understood an enterprise’s financial situation where sum of short-term and long-term liabilities exceed its assets, which leads to a negative net equity. That, as a rule, is explained by accumulated uncovered losses (negative retained earnings). The consequences of such a situation could be very severe. The difference between asset value and borrowed funds approximately equals to net asset value - a key indicator of financial performance of a joint stock company. The decrease of net asset value below the authorized capital for several years leads either to its reduction, which happens rarely, or to a bankruptcy. Furthermore, under certain conditions, an enterprise must publish a notice concerning its net asset reduction and any creditor is entitled to demand early performance of the respective obligations, which, if the amount of debts is large, can become a serious problem and result in a real bankruptcy.
A model of the statistical relationship between a set of financial indicators and a probability of bankruptcy is constructed in the article. We are focused on identifying of significant indicators and the functional form of their values binding with the probability. To solve these problems we use a logit regression-based class of models for panel data and an algorithm for an automatic model specification. It reduces the influence of human factor on determining its type and links it with attributes of the accumulated data. This research is based on 2012-2016 financial records of 463 Russian enterprises from the SPARK-Interfax database. The results of simulation allowed us to determine a set of indicators that significantly affect forecasting quality of potential bankruptcy possibility, as well as the nature of this effect.
The statement that demand creates its own supply rings true for the smartphone market as well as for any other sector of the market economy. With computerization level of society growing, Internet-based technology advancing, with the increase in Internet penetration of households, growing population mobility and the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, it has become important for an individual to have operative engagement into daily interactions and activities. On the other hand, the development of technologies also requires new advanced features of technical devices.
Preference evaluation of goods or services can be done using one of market research techniques - conjoined analysis. This article continues the series on applying the conjoined analysis technique. To demonstrate the algorithm, features of conducting and interpreting results obtained, the authors use the study results of the smartphone market. The published results of the previous studies provided a detailed description of their preparation stages, described the sample size, statistics of response for a questionnaire, and algorithms from conjoint analysis technique. In particular, it outlines writing source code for the conjoint analysis algorithm using IBM SPSS Statistics command syntax language.
The purpose of this article is to demonstrate a step-by-step algorithm for conjoint analysis as one of the methods for statistical data processing, based on smartphone consumers survey, conducted by the authors. The article briefly presents the essence of the conjoint analysis, its advantages and disadvantages as a statistical method, the algorithm for preliminary processing of initial data. The authors developed a conjoined analysis and given detailed interpretation of its results. Special attention deserves the analysis and reasoning behind the choice of private utility model, as well as the evaluation of its parameters.
The findings, presented in this article, can be used by experts in statistical data processing and IT market experts. In the future, the authors plan to publish a theoretical article focusing on outlining the essence of the conjoint analysis, its application and operationalization approaches.
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
The first part of the journal version of the «Methodological Recommendations for Improving the Programme for Censuses of Agriculture in the CIS States» developed by the CIS-Stat was published in the previous issue of Voprosy statistiki. This second part explores the organization and methodological questions of establishing the frame for the census of agriculture and its updatingin the intercensal period. The paper successively reviews modalities for conducting a census of agriculture and a micro census in the CIS countries. The article showcases their features and advantages thatwouldbe preferable under specific conditions and for each individual country: 1) the classical approach may be considered a census conducted as a single one-off operation in which all the census information is recorded; 2) the modular approach has clearly distinguishable core module (used during a continues survey) and supplementary module(s) (conducted on a sample basis simultaneously with a continuous survey or in 1-2 years’ time); 3) the integrated census/survey modality, involving rotating survey modules , conducted over the period of 10 years between two censuses; 4) the combined census modality, which uses administrative data.
The article summarizes (in the context of methodological recommendations) information on the following methods for recording the area of agricultural land: accounting of area of holding according to a respondent; enumeration using GPS enabled devices; measuring horizontal positions using compass and tape - «gold standard»; using satellite images or remote sensing.
Published methodological recommendations propose structuring criteria for data of agricultural censuses. However, it is emphasized that after developing the survey toolkit, processing tools for the survey results are also developed. These tools include the system of final and analytical tables, groupings and combination of items that serve as a basis for empirical indicators acquired during census to be converted into a population of aggregate values characterizing various aspects of agricultural activities.
In the final part of the document under review, there are recommendations on how to monitor census activities, verify census results, including by means of remote sensing, and recalculate time series according to results of an agricultural census.
CHRONICLE, INFORMATION
«VOPROSY STATISTIKI» IN 2018
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)