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Vol 25, No 11 (2018)
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STATISTICAL METHODS IN ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING

3-12 505
Abstract

In this article, the authors implemented own ideas regarding applying methods of vector regression to the economic analysis using the example of the research of the influence of small retail business on trade dynamics. They’ve selected the components that reflect sectoral development tendencies of the small retail business and have high information capacity in measuring the intensity of economic development. The authors study the influence of composite indicators on the dynamics of an economic development aggregate - volume index of retail trade turnover.

The response of the retail trade volume index to some hypothetical parameters (artificial shocks) of time series of non-quantitative composite indicators illustrating business tendencies in small retail business was simulated. To perform such an analysis the authors used the impulse response function (IRF) for Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) based on modern vector autoregression (VAR) approaches.

The negative interrelation was established between the volume index of retail trade turnover and business potential of retail trade in the short term. Positive interrelations were established between the reviewer of volume index of retail trade turnover and economic situation of retail trade, as well as between volume index of retail trade turnover and competitive position of the small retail business.

The main objective was to select appropriate components for the model by means of preliminary analysis of time series with respect to the stationary process and by checking for co-integration. Vector Error Correction Model was constructed using impulse response function that estimates the spread of shocks over time for composite indicators and the reaction of volume index of retail trade turnover with such intermediate stages as determining the lag order, conducting the Granger test and decomposing volatility.

13-36 438
Abstract

The article analyses socio-economic development of Russia in 2017-2018, as well as forecasts and estimates for the near future.It compares Russian and global economic development trends in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), industrial production and other major macroeconomic indicators.

The authors address problems, threats and risks associated with ensuring accelerated development, creating prerequisites for the implementation of the message of the President of Russia to the Federal Assembly of March 1, 2018 and the May (2018) Decree on the national goals and strategic objectives of the country’s development up to 2024 arising from this message. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of the formation and implementation of the federal budget and national projects, ensuring the growth of investment and consumer activity, growth of labor productivity and employment, and accelerating the development of the small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs), as wellas the impact of foreign threats and sanctions on the real economy, social and financial sectors.

The paper considers the shortcomings of the current management system, primarily in the formation of national forecasts and federal budgets that are not focused on the implementation of economic restructuring and ensuring economic growth and social progress in priority areas of life identified by the national projects. It is these shortcomings that pose a real threat and initiate a new recession at the start of the next three-year period 2019-2021.

The authors present comparative assessments of forecasts of macroeconomic indicators and, above all, the development of the real sector of the economy, ensuring the acceleration of social progress and overcoming threats to the economic, scientific, technical and social situation of the country.

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS

37-45 640
Abstract

On the basis of the proceedings of the 20th International Conference of Labour Statisticians the authors, who had attended the conference as part of the Russian delegation, reviewed key novations that were proposed and discussed under the auspices of the International Labour Organization. The article covers the adopted resolutions and recommendations that aim to ensure international comparability of indicators of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs enable decent work and promote methodological consistency across countries when it comes to specific topics of labour statistics such as work relationships, child labour and a number of other priority areas.

The focal point of the article is the analysis of key provisions and concepts adopted at the conference, in particular, the Resolution concerning statistics on work relationships. It defines the operational concepts, classifications and information sources for compiling statistical surveys of workers in a fundamentally new aspect - characteristics of the work relationship. The article covers statistical classification that can serve as a basis when identifying and classifying workers by characteristics of the work relationship following the cross-cutting variables and categories: the type of authority and the type of economic risk. The paper provides insights into the scheme of the interrelation of statistics on work relationships, listed in the Resolution, that had been developed by the authors.

The authors formulated recommendations on directions for onward development of labour statistics with regard to international standards.

46-56 679
Abstract

The authors of this paper developed own statistical model of international migration and on its basis determined trends in changes in migration potential of the CIS states. This article analyzes migration flows from the CIS countries to Russia in terms of arrivals and net migration. It reconstructs 1997-2010 data on external net migration for all CIS countries and highlights the importance of continuing to improve the database on external migration. Having selected the most significant factors affecting external migration from five-factor groups, the authors proposed the migration cost equation. Model simulation of external migration patterns to Russia from 11 countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States was conducted. The partial adjustment model was used to identify the differences between short-term and long-term factors of international migration flows.

Using ordinary least square estimator with fixed effects method allows to consider the country-specific fixed effects. The number of immigrants and the employment characteristics in their country of stay are proven to have the most significant influence on migration processes in all the CIS states.

According to the authors’ forecast, the average annual net migration from the CIS countries to Russia will be just over 132 thousand people in 2018-2023. The derived quantitative variables can be regarded as additional data supporting a hypothesis about feasible directions of migration flows in the CIS countries and provide new insights. With this the authors arrive at a conclusion that there is a possible decrease in net migration from the CIS states into the Russian Federation. Addressing the need to create favorable conditions in order to attract migrants in accordance with demographic, societal and economic needs of Russia and to promote social adaptation and integration of migrants calls for new approaches to migration and economic policy in Russia and, therefore, is becoming increasingly important.

57-79 312
Abstract

This methodological document is a product of research conducted by experts of the CIS of Independent States on adapting the World Programme for the Census of Agriculture 2020 (developed under the leadership of the FAO) tostatistical practices of the CIS countries in agriculture and developing unified approaches to agricultural censuses in the CIS countries. This is the first part of the article which presents an analysis of conceptual differences between the World Programme for the Census of Agriculture 2020 and that of the 2010 census round and formulates a series of organizational and methodological suggestions on conducting agricultural censuses in the CIS countries on the basis of the World Programme for the Census of Agriculture 2020. The paper emphasizes that the WCA 2020 is based on those recommendations from the «Global Strategy to Improve Agricultural and Rural Statistics» that are directly relevant to organizing and carrying out agricultural census. This approach stipulated conceptual differences of the WCA 2020 from the WCA 2010. However, developing of the WCA 2020 included analyzing best practices of selected countries in the 2010 census round which resulted in improving the census methodology.

This methodological material defines categories of agricultural producers, explained the notions of scope, coverage of agricultural census, key items recommended for inclusion in the programme of agricultural censuses in the CIS countries for data collection - statistical units.

There is a separate issue concerning essential items that are considered imperative for the inclusion of into questionnaires and are used as a basis or benchmark forinternational comparability of results of agricultural census. At the same time, it is stressed that the use of essential items in national and international questionnaires mandatory though it may be doesn’t imply the fact that they should be included into all questionnaires regardless the type of agricultural producers. The paper describes various modifications for the items, proposed to be included in questionnaires, depending on the category of agricultural producers.

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ISSN 2313-6383 (Print)
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)