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Vol 25, No 4 (2018)
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DEVELOPMENT OF STATE STATISTICS

22-26 481
Abstract

This article addresses the most important points of basic methodological and organizational provisions of the 2018 pilot population census that is conducted with regard to the forthcoming in October 2020 regular Russian Population Census. The author comments on the objectives of the Russian Population Census which is the major source of information on the population size, its socio-demographic characteristics and distribution. The article covers specific characteristics of the pilot population census which will be held in October of this year in 10 municipal units of nine constituent entities of the Russian Federation, including the regions of the Far North. Pilot population census will cover 550 thousand persons and it will be used to test new methods for collecting population data.

STATISTICS IN ECONOMIC STUDIES

27-48 514
Abstract

This article presents the research of Russian foreign trade in 2013-2016 using several relevant analytical groupings and indicators reflecting geography and structure of exports and imports of goods, trade balance, dependence on imports, export-oriented nature of the Russian economy and also the development potential of the mutual trade with its-partners in the EAEU. For the analysis the authors used data from the Federal Customs Service, which was regrouped in accordance with the Russian Classification of Products by Economic Activities to correspond with the production statistics and combined in 40 groups of industrial and agricultural exports and imports products. Geographical dimension in the context of these types of products is presented by two groups of countries: one group - Russia and the EAEU-members (EAEU-4) broken down by each country and another group - that includes «other courtiers of the world».

The article consists of two parts. The first part contains general characteristics of the external and internal conditions, which determined the directions for changes in the Russian foreign trade in 2014-2016. It also presents the estimations and conclusions received following the analysis of changes of the Russian trade balance with the EAEU-4 group of countries and other countries of the world, by types of products, dependence of the Russian economy on imports and export-oriented nature of different economic sectors. The second part is devoted to the analysis of the Russian trade with each country of EAEU-4. The authors itemized the aspects of Russian trade with each of the EAEU-4 countries and described the complementarity of their economies. The importance of trade with each country in meeting the Russian demand for imports of different types of products and the development of Russian industries is assessed. The conclusions on the possibility of a fuller use of the integration potential of foreign trade connections between Russia and its EAEU-partners are provided.

The article contains table materials that include specific data on structural, dynamic and comparative analysis of Russian foreign trade during its adaptation to radical change in prices on the world energy market and to other external factors. These table materials can be widely used in different directions of macroeconomic research, including the estimates of integration effects within the EAEU.

STATISTICAL METHODS IN SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

49-63 560
Abstract

The data of business (market) surveys of entrepreneurial activity are an important source of economic information in national and international practice. Their results reflect the specific features of cognitive perception by business agents of business trends and sectoral cyclical events in various sectors of the country’s economy. Using the appropriate measurement procedures for the processing of structured distributions of entrepreneurial opinions makes it possible to obtain arrays of information that are the so-called «soft» non-quantitative statistics in the «near real-time» mode.

When analyzing the results of business surveys, first of all, there are the tasks of their quantitative characterization, measuring the relationships between the qualitative characteristics of the objects surveyed and the generalization of the interrelated information into summary indicators characterizing the scale of the distribution of cyclical industry events in the economic development of the country. In this regard, the authors present the main stages and methods for quantifying the results of surveys, in particular the procedure for scaling qualitative characteristics, their quantitative determination; the possibility of applying specific statistical measures is justified. For the generalized measurement of qualitative information, the concepts of horizontal and vertical integration of survey results are introduced. The questions of adequate and logical interpretation of balance statistics, based on subjective assessments of respondents, are considered. The authors formulated reasons for combining the results of the surveys into composite indicators, which make it possible to identify the most characteristic links among simple survey indicators and simplify the analysis and interpretation of the results as a whole.

64-74 415
Abstract

In this article the first experience of carrying out the sample survey of prevalence of nonсommunicable diseases risk factors (STEPS-survey) in the Republic of Belarus is analyzed. The essence of STEPS-survey as the main tool recommended by the WHO for epidemiological monitoring of NCD risk factors is revealed, its advantages over other similar examinations are noted.

The authors consider in detail the methodological issues of forming the volume and design of a sample survey based on international experience in this field using a combination of different methods of selection. Within the framework of the problems under study a scheme for constructing a representative sample within each region of the country by strata (urban / rural areas) is provided. Special attention is paid to the probabilities of inclusion of sampling units in the sample and to the weighing procedures. The article also presents brief results of the study, as well as proposals for improving the monitoring of risk factors for non-communicable diseases in the country.

Applying the method of a multistage cluster sampling, 5760 respondents aged 18-69 years were selected; they were equivalently distributed by age, sex and region of residence in the Republic of Belarus; 5010 (87.0%) of them participated in the STEPS survey. Almost half of men (47.8%) and one third of women (33.7%) aged 18-69 had three or more behavioral NCD risk factors. At that, the number of respondents with a high NCD risk was almost twice as high in older age groups.

The STEPS conclusions can serve as a baseline for assessing the efficiency of the implemented actions aimed at reducing prevalence of the NCD risk factors. Analysis and interpretation of the STEPS data will enable to improve epidemiological surveillance over NCDs, and to strengthen the set of measures to combat the most common NCDs.

MATHEMATICAL AND STATISTICAL METHODS IN ASSESSMENT AND ANALYSIS

75-87 909
Abstract

The authors attempted to establish methodology for constructing composite indicator to estimate the value and dynamic characteristics of the digital inequality. The trend of the modern development of the countries all over world is the course on the formation of the digital economy and the development of socio-economic relations based on digital interactions. In this regard the adoption of the «Strategy for the Development of the Information Society in the Russian Federation for 2017-2030» and the program «Digital Economy of the Russian Federation» proves to be relevant. The more so in the context of quite a noticeable socio-economic differentiation, there is a risk of the «digital divide» effect of the Russian regions, which will create additional difficulties for their development.

After a brief historical overview of science and technology development stages (related to the digital economy) of the last decade and the reflection of this process in the scientific and professional literature and state programs of a number of countries, the authors review evolutionary aspects and challenges associated with implementation of programs such as the Nationwide program for informatization of society in Russia. The consolidated index of readiness of Russian regions to the information society, proposed by the Institute for the Development of the Information Society, has a number of shortcomings, which hinders its direct use for assessing digital inequality and comparing the regions of Russia according to the level of informatization in dynamics. The article examines the possibility of implementing the author’s idea of the improved integral indicator that would allow studying not only the development of the information society and Information and communication technologies (ICT) as a whole but also the interregional digital divide. The development of the new index considered the possibility of reflecting the degree of access of the population to ICT in the regions, taking into account technological factors.



ISSN 2313-6383 (Print)
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)