No 9 (2015)
PAGES OF HISTORY
DEVELOPMENT OF STATE STATISTICS
3-9 340
Abstract
The article is provided by the Health and Population Statistics Department, Rosstat. The article reviews the experience and issues of mastering innovative approaches towards socio-demographic cluster samplings and population censuses. Methodological and technological aspects of innovative methods in a number of countries are presented (based on 2010 census results). Also, the analysis of the perspectives of innovative methods of data collection application in Russia is provided as well as possibilities of switching to paperless technology during cluster sampling. The authors justify the need of innovations in the All-Russia population census 2020, which is being prepared considering: - the existing normative database of the Russian Federation considering its estimated changes; - international recommendations on population censuses and housing stock operation; - changes occurring in the Russian society; - the need of comparison with previous All-Russia population censuses results. An important place in the article is dedicated to the questions and specialties of the upcoming Microcensus in Russia. The blocks of questions on fertility and health conditions have been widened, new technologies of data collection and an automatic processing of Microcensus materials will be practiced at the federal level.
12-22 411
Abstract
The article is a review of cluster sampling of labor migration in the member states of the CIS in the context of developed countries' experience. The two types of a study are evaluated: the first type uses broad themes along with questions on labor migration; the second type operates through special investigations focused on studying this phenomenon. It is pointed out that regardless of the development of administrative sources of migration data, most of the data can be collected only with a use of cluster sampling. The study of the CIS member states conditions has shown the use inequality of this source. While countries-donors apply investigations to assess non-present population and to study labor migration and return migration consequences, countriesreceivers have limited experience in this field, although the Russian Federation has taken several steps towards improvement recently. The study analyses approaches to target group determination for studies of labor migration and touches upon a question of sampling. The article is prepared within the framework of the Interstate Statistical Committee of the CIS study, the main point of which is not only to summarize data on the CIS labor migration observation, but also to develop recommendations for more effective use of this important source of statistical data.
IN THE COURSE OF DISCUSSION
56-66 1080
Abstract
Frequent cases of incorrect use of the Gini index in economic and statistical studies have forced the authors to express their opinion. This refers to those calculations that consider average and relative (per capita) rates rather than divide total rates into groups. A right choice and a correct use of statistical tools play a crucial role in statistical research for an analysis of valid and reliable statistical data. Even the simplest and most widely known method of statistical data processing requires competent use depending on the original data. The data provided in the article demonstrates possibilities and conditions of the Gini index use, which is popular among researchers. The concentration index (often referred to as the Gini index in the literature) was originally proposed by the Italian statistician K. Gini to assess the degree of uneven distribution ofwealth (income) within a population. The authors proceed from the fact that the concentration index can be used for characterizing inequalities of many other indicators. The article contains description of key provisions of the statistical theory of measuring such properties units collectively as «concentration» and well-known formulas for calculating the Gini index. The authors emphasize the important condition of this indicator application: raw data must consider the possibility of distribution allocated to the group together, i. e. it must be necessarily presented as group totals, not as indicators per capita or average values.
67-72 423
Abstract
The article reviews issues ofthe methodology of calculating averages in the analysis of commercial banks’ credit activity. The authors focus on formulas for calculating an average size of term loans and an average interest rate. A slowdown in the economy, significant fluctuations of the exchange rate, deterioration of the financial condition of enterprises has led to the growth of both individual and corporative overdue credit debt. In these circumstances, the state may use subsidized interest rates as incentives for a number of banks. This measure requires objective data collection on all economic indicators that show credit activity of banks. The currently used method of calculating averages, which is approved by the guidelines of the Bank of Russia dated 12.11.2009 No. 2332-U «On the list, forms and procedure for compiling and submission of reporting forms of credit institutions to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation», involves calculating of an average weighed by one factor. However, as it is proved in the article, calculating an average interest rate of a double-weighted average, (considering both an amount of a loan and terms of a loan granted) is needed for an objective accounting of all factors. The fact that proposed formulas are supported by examples and detailed methodological descriptions, makes them useable both in the operational work of banks and in scientific research.
INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION
STATISTICAL METHODS AND METHODOLOGY OF ANALYSIS
23-29 446
Abstract
The article analyses issues of the statistical study ofleasing as a relatively new and highly important type of investment during the process of establishment and renewal of the main production assets. The special attention is paid to rates, which indicate investment expenses of a lessor (i.e. total cost of signed contracts in an accounting year, balance sheet value of leased property and rent payments of a lessee) together with the indicators of the federal statistical observation form №DAFL. Inequivalent units of the lease payment structure, which is a source of investment expenses compensation, have been elicited. The main part of a total payment is a lease payment for leased property; all other parts act as supplementary conditions naturally added to a lease contract. An example of calculating a volume of investment expenses is equal to a total cost of lease contracts signed in an accounting year without value added tax. Directions of possible perfection of the above mentioned federal statistical observation form, are scheduled.
30-37 310
Abstract
A hierarchical cluster analysis method has been used in order to find the most common trajectories of a post-crisis dynamics of Russian manufacturing industries. The two main clusters (called «rapid growth» and «stagnation») contain motion trajectories of about 90% of investigated industries. The article provides paths of future statistical study of industry clusters. A statistical algorithm, which determines typical representatives of several groups, is also given. The use of proposed statistical methods of data process can not only increase the effectiveness of state policies on overcoming economic crisis, but also find those aspects of the strategy, which increase sustainability of an industry to negative outer shocks.
MATHEMATICAL AND STATISTICAL METHODS IN SOCIO-ECONOMIC STUDIES
38-46 401
Abstract
It is proposed methods of statistical analysis of global trade in virtual water in the context of increasing social and environmental tensions. The influence of exports and imports on indicators related to social and environmental risks was investigated on the example of the world virtual water trade flows in agricultural products. Data from websites of the World Bank and the World Trade Organization for the period from 1994 to 2011 is used in the analysis. The methodology is based on econometric modeling. The base model represents a set of typological systems of apparently unrelated regression equations, estimated on panel data for pre-selected groups of countries. The indicators associated with indicators of social and environmental risks were used as endogenous variables in the system. Characteristics of international trade in virtual water were included in the composition of the exogenous variables. In order to determine the typological grouping of countries, their structure was analyzed in relation to the balance of exportimport of agricultural products and the world trade indicators corresponding to the indicators developed under the auspices of the World Water Council. As a result of the analysis the existence of stable groups of countries was shown. We found the countries that were either mainly exporting or importing agricultural products for these years. The share of the third considered group of countries with the varying sign of the balance of export and import amounted only to 30%. The factors influencing the formation of groups were revealed. In particular, the role water resources was shown, both in quantitative aspect, and from the perspective of efficiency of their use. For the first group of countries a significant effect of exports on indicators of environmental pollution on agricultural products was found. For the second group the connection of import and export of agricultural products with the migration flow was shown especially notably. The overall pattern for the three groups was the fact that countries with more intensive trade flows had a lower rating of environmental sustainability.
47-55 527
Abstract
On the base of the official statistical data, the article reviews socio-economic consequences of drug use prevalence in the federal subjects of Russia. Drug abuse mongering is a constantly developing phenomenon, which gradually comes upon new spheres of social life. The article analyses the manifestations of various consequences of drug use in the regions of Russian Federation, such as drug-related criminality, drug addiction, mortality caused by drug overdose and intoxication, etc. Experts consider these consequences to lead to a number of socio-economic losses, which adversely affect the economy (especially under the conditions of financial and economic crisis). To evaluate these consequences the author uses methods of calculating territories’ socio-economic losses of the drug addiction outspread in monetary terms on the base of statistical data. The applied methods provide an opportunity to define the interrelations between the indicators of drug abuse situation and actual economic indicators which are significantly differentiated in the Russian regions. The calculations are made for 82 regions of Russian Federation. In order to simplify the comparison of territories by this indicator the federal subjects of Russia are grouped by level of socio-economic losses. The article places a special emphasis on the prospective lines which should be kept in focus of the public authorities and applied science in order to prevent negative consequences of drug abuse.
ISSN 2313-6383 (Print)
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)