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No 7 (2015)

PAGES OF HISTORY

DEMOGRAPHIC STATISTICS

10-20 1157
Abstract
This article analyzes changes in life expectancy in Russia as a whole as well as in several regions. Mortality rates and health system performance are considered to be the key factors, which influence life expectancy. The first part ofthe paper analyses mortality rates in the Russian Federation from 1990 to 2013. The dynamics of rates in an analyzed period indicate decline in mortality since 2003-2005._Particular attention is paid to the study of mortality in Russia in the regional aspect. A cluster analysis has been made, using the method of k-means. This helped to divide the subjects of the Russian Federation into three clusters in terms of mortality: low, medium and high clusters. The largest cluster of 50 regions is characterized by an average mortality rate. Mortality caused by circulatory diseases leads all 3 clusters. The second part of the paper analyzes differences in life expectancy, depending on a territorial jurisdiction of a region of the Russian Federation. The Moscow region served as a base for the comparison as it was one of the leaders in main socio-economic rates of 2013. Perm region was chosen as a median region of a given rating. The structure of these regions is homogenous in terms of age composition and population type. Life expectancy in both regions has increased by more than 5 years during the study period. It should be mentioned that this figure has risen more significantly in terms of male population. The authors have analyzed dynamic changes in survivorship functions of different groups of population in Moscow and Perm regions for the period of 1999-2013. They have also examined changes in life expectancy for people of retirement age in more details. This issue is particularly relevant, since the question of raising the retirement age has been discussed more often recently.
21-31 1591
Abstract
Some results of the latest trends study in the field of marriage and family in modern Russia are presented in this article. These are the following trends: spread of unregistered cohabitation, rise of the age at the first marriage, increase in the share of early divorces, general marriage instability in young families. These trends are demonstrated by the youngest active cohort of marriageable age in our country, which includes 25-30-year-olds or rather a generation of the last Soviet «baby boom». Therefore, there is a question of whether these trends are a sign of the destruction of the traditional marriage institution in Russia or they are superficial, temporary and can only tell about the weakening of social control function in the field of marriage, family and other social institutions. In order to answer this question the authors considered the examples of several generations. They served as a base for examining (i) external indicators of marriage institution functioning in a society; (ii) social norms and the most widespread, typical practices in the sphere of marriage and family life; (iii) the underlying motives for specific forms of marital behavior. The following methods for scientific information obtaining were used: the analysis of official statistics (primarily marriage and divorce rates), a massive questionnaire on representative data sample and in-depth interviews. As a result, a univocal conclusion was obtained that during the last 50 years the marriage institute in our country hasn’t undergone any fundamental changes. A lifelong marriage with one or more children is a basic and one of the most significant values for all demographically active generations. At the same time, most of the registered negative phenomena in this field are caused by external social factors, which should be subject to a further in-depth study.
32-42 367
Abstract
The author gives a statistical analysis of the socio-demographic processes taking place among young population in the Murmansk region. It is pointed out that migration is the most important factor for changes in population size in the Murmansk region. Youth and total population migration loss, which affected the quantity and quality of its composition, was recorded during 2009-2013 in the region. The article provides data on marriage and divorce rates in the Murmansk region. It states that the marital age tends to increase. A share of women, who give birth out of wedlock, decreases gradually and stably. However, it still remains significant: every fourth child of young women is born out of wedlock. This article contains data on changes in health conditions amongst young people (socially significant diseases in particular) and on the number of pregnancy terminations. Professional education opportunities and scientific activity of the young people have been examined together with main changes in student contingent. The author has paid close attention to the situation of the youth in the labor market and its business involvement. One section is dedicated to specific social issues analysis, such as juvenile delinquency and housing of young families. It is mentioned that over the years, there has been a decrease in the number of reported crimes: a reduction in the amount and proportion of young people in the total number of identified persons committed crimes becomes a positive trend. The article also illustrates how the question of young families’ housing is dealt with in the Murmansk region.

SCIENTIFIC LIFE

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS

43-55 362
Abstract
The introduction of representative products in International Comparison Program makes the purchasing power parities (PPPs) a computable concept. The representative extent of the product list for the participating countries has important impacts on the reliability of PPPs and the global results. However, the measurement of representativeness and its induced biases in the estimated PPPs has not been carried out to our knowledge. Therefore, the paper designs a new index approach - Intra-National Assessment (INA), to assess the reliability of PPPs via representativeness. The approach considers the regional disparity and urban-rural differences from the lowest level of the product specifications to the GDP level. This bottom-up approach is applied to empirically assess the reliability of China’s PPPs in 2011 ICP. From the reliability degree perspective, the China’s PPP at GDP level is reliable, but the variation at main category is relatively larger. The PPP reliability of the lower levels function differently. The reliability of food and its subcategories are more reliable than any other categories because of detailed survey data sources. The reliability results of durable consumer goods, transport and communications, housing, machinery and equipment, and construction vary considerably. Further problems about the INA approach are discussed. Reliability implications in this study would be helpful for measuring the real size of China and the world economy.

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS

56-65 342
Abstract
The problem of rising the retirement age in our country has been under discussion since the outset of market reforms of pension systems (i. e. a quarter of a century), and it still has no apparent progress towards a solution. In anticipation of the predicted in the middle of the last century demographic crisis, most civilized countries have embarked on a radical overhaul of not only their social sphere (development of social services, «accessible environment» for people with disabilities, orientation of health care system on gerontological problems, etc.), but also in terms of macroeconomic reallocation of resources according to growing needs of current consumption and maintenance of disabled citizens. The main emphasis is placed on the direct economic stimulation of birth rate. The latter contributed significantly to the leveling of the negative «demographic gaps». However, the whole complex of problems of aging population goes far beyond a simple reproduction of the population. In the current socio-economic conditions, the problem of rising the retirement age in Russia has become particularly acute. The practice of Western countries shows that only when favorable macro-economic and social conditions are created, a positive effect is reached with regards to implementation of institutional and parametric reforms of a pension system in terms of raising the retirement age and the implantation of funded mandatory pension schemes for employers.. This article is the first to present actuarial analysis of demographic, social and labor conditions and prerequisites for rising the retirement age in Russia, which was conducted using official statistics.

МЕТОДОЛОГИЯ И МЕТОДЫ СОЦИАЛЬНО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОГО АНАЛИЗА

3-9 555
Abstract
The authors substantiated the necessity to improve the methodology for calculating «average wages» data. This indicator is quite crucial for determining the standard of living and it is also used in developing a number of other socio-economic indicators, more specifically, the «working-poor rate» and the «percentage of low-paid workers». The suggested approach to calculating the average wage grasps subjects of statistical observation by adding employed population, individual entrepreneur and persons equated with individual entrepreneurs. Administrative statistics - the database of the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation - is adapted accordingly to the solution of the task. The proposed approach makes it possible to cover nearly all groups of workers/employees when calculating the average wages. The results of experimental calculations of the average wages, which are based on the traditional national statistics combined with the administrative statistics, are presented according to official data. Differentiation of data variations is elicited for the whole country, constituent entities of the Russian Federation and activity categories.


ISSN 2313-6383 (Print)
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)