No 3 (2015)
PAGES OF HISTORY
CHRONICLE, INFORMATION
FACTS, ESTIMATES, FORECASTS
57-64 637
Abstract
Specific factors, such as globalization of the world economy, transition of the BRICS countries to export-oriented model from the beginning of the 1990s, caused the increasing of the capital flight to the offshore sharply. The paper presents volume estimates of capital export; factors which characterize the degree of economic security of the countries are analyzed; features and causes of capital flight to offshore for each of the BRICS countries are described. Countries with the most non-transparent financial system in which capital outflows, are identified through the Financial Secrecy Index.
DEVELOPMENT OF STATE STATISTICS
4-16 291
Abstract
After formulating the goals and objectives of the Federal State Statistics Service is presented the progress in the implementation of the main activities related to the sub-program entitled «Formation of official statistical information» of the state program of the Russian Federation «Economic development and innovative economy», approved by the Decision of the Government of the Russian Federation № 316 from 15.04.2014, on which the Federal State Statistics Service is the responsible executor. The main performance results of the Federal State Statistics Service in 2014 are reviewed. Among the important activities of the Federal State Statistics Service in the past year are: information support of the implementation of the Decrees of the President of the Russian Federation on the social-and-economic development of the Russian Federation; organization of official statistics in the Crimean Federal District; carrying out statistical works on the main sectors of the economy and social sphere (e.g., in macroeconomics - moving the national SNA , statistics of the national wealth and fixed assets to the excepted international standards; in sectors - developments in business, agricultural and environmental statistics). Under consideration are organizational and methodological issues as well as organizational and technical activities related to the preparation, conducting and summarizing results of the Russia population censuses (micro-censuses) and censuses of agriculture, development of the benchmark «input-output» tables and preparation, conducting and summarizing results of full scale observations on activities of subjects of small and medium entrepreneurships; to the organization of sample surveys on the social-and-demographic issues and monitoring economic losses from mortality, morbidity and disability of the population, on certain aspects of employment and wages ; informatization of collecting and processing of official statistical information is characterized along with implementation of the «Development of State Statistical System Project» of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Rosstat activities in the framework of implementation of other State Programs of the Russian Federation are recognized. Basic goals for the year 2015 and for 2016-2017 planning period (for national accounts, national wealth and fixed assets, business statistics, statistical evaluation of levels of technological development of industries, etc.) are commented on. The author describes main directions for the future work of Rosstat with regard to the development of Russian classifications, information support of the Decrees of the President of the Russian Federation and Decisions of the Government of the Russian Federation, international cooperation, informatization of collecting and processing of statistical information and implementation of the " Second State Statistical System Development Project" of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, on the activities of the Federal State Statistics Service amidst other Russian Federation State Programs.
STUDY OF SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES
39-47 285
Abstract
In the framework of this article were analyzed the sources of statistical information on private intergenerational exchanges. The extent of households’ participation in informal exchanges is shown along with the contribution of private transfers to the households’ budgets in Russia. Is rationalized the importance of private transfers in providing practical assistance to the elderly and others in need of care. The author analyzes Russian and foreign sources of data. Are determined the features of collecting information on private transfers in the budget household surveys (Household budget survey, National survey of household budgets and participation in social programs) and other surveys (Comprehensive monitoring of living conditions) conducted by the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation. Are considered the advantages and disadvantages of statistical data on private transfers collected amid Russian non-governmental sample surveys such as «Russian longitudinal monitoring survey - National research university Higher school of economics» and «Generations and gender survey». The main difficulties related to the consideration of private intergenerational transfers as a specific social phenomenon were observed. The author proposes some methodological recommendations for statistical recording of private transfers in terms of research object’s specifics. The most important characteristics of the transfer’s flows that need to be covered during the budget and other sample surveys are described.
48-56 329
Abstract
In this article is justified the necessity to introduce into demographic and statistical research practices the following indicators: «demographic significance of the age group» and «demographic significance of the age structure of the population», as well as to present the evaluation and analysis results of the levels of these variables. Using the method of multidimensional medium and rating are specified the age groups that are most and least important for the optimal functioning of the demographic system of Belarus, which manifests itself in the utmost pursuit of the national demographic interests, as reflected in the Law of the Republic of Belarus «On demographic security». Evaluation results for the levels of demographic significance of selected age groups allowed justifying the age group of 20-24 year olds as the most preferred, and the group of those aged 60 years and over - as the least preferred for the normal functioning of the demographic system of the country. The values off age-specific mortality, fertility, marriage, divorce and emigration rates of the population of the Republic of Belarus for 2003-2013 that served as the information basis for the calculations were previously divided into two groups: stimulants (positive demographic processes) and destimulants (negative demographic processes). By summarizing the variables of the demographic significance of individual age groups were received the levels of the demographic significance of the age structure of the population as a whole. Was revealed a downward trend in the levels of this indicator for 2003-2013, which is associated with the active development of the process of demographic aging in the country. Determining the most important from the standpoint of the demographic development of the country age groups will allow to take into account the needs and priorities of their representatives in the planning phase of the state policy in the field of population and demographic security in Belarus. The estimation results of the demographic significance of the age structure of the population as a whole provide an adequate assessment of the possible effect of interventions based on the action of the structure factor.
FOREIGN STATISTICS
65-70 512
Abstract
National statistical offices are under pressure to provide open access to their official datasets. While many have announced their intention to provide open data, progress has been slow and gaps in quality and coverage persist in many countries. Several indexes of the openness of official data are now available, but they overlook much of the output of national statistical systems and ignore most developing countries. Countries must implement rigorous assessments of data quality and embed openness in the plans for development of their statistical systems. Increased donor support, based on prioritized national plans, is needed to ensure that countries are able to produce the data needed to monitor progress toward the proposed Sustainable Development goals
71-80 437
Abstract
Creating a new development model for the Russian economy causes increased attention to small businesses as an integral part of its successful transformation. In this regard, there is a need to examine the international and Russian statistical practices for methods and measurement tools in regard to economic behavior by means of business surveys. Particular attention is paid to current practice analysis of industry trends in the development of small business through national composite indicator of business climate. The prevalence and success of the application of measurement indicators in foreign countries only highlights the need for development and implementation of the broad system of composite leading indicators (SLI) into the Russian statistical practice, allowing on a regular basis to analyze the business environment, its stability and the degree of its susceptibility to different shocks.
STATISTICAL METHODS AND METHODOLOGY OF ANALYSIS
17-26 424
Abstract
In this article is reviewed the methodology of statistical analysis of food security as a means of enabling quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the sustainability of the national food system. Whereas, the author focuses on two sides of it (out of five set out in the «Rome Declaration on World Food Security»): stability, meaning that the national food system develops in an extended reproduction mode; the ability of national food system to minimize the vulnerability to, and impact of, climate and other fluctuations of the food supply of the population in all regions of the country. Sustainable production of basic foodstuffs within the borders of the Russian Federation can be evaluated by the results of the statistical analysis of coordination or asynchronous fluctuations in production by region of the Russian Federation, differences in the conditions of climatic characteristics in time and space. The author examines the dynamics of per capita grain production and its volatility for forty-four years in all regions, territories and republics of the Russian Federation, which, on one hand reflects the pattern in the sustainability of national food system, and, on the other hand, as applied to agriculture as a whole, reflects climatic variations. A system of statistical indicators to measure the level and dynamics of sustainable production in various forms of trends is proposed. Indicators of sustainability trends also indicate the presence of cycles (cycle stability).
27-38 755
Abstract
The article is devoted to the problems of methodology and analysis of statistical data on trading activity. Emphasis is made on the three vital for the development of economy and social life directions of trade statistics. Firstly, the rate and trends of commodity mass development are shown, the organizational structures of trade are characterized, the estimations of commodity resources from the position of food and commodity safety, as well as the possibilities of import substitution, are outlined. Changes in commodity macrostructure of turnover are considered and explained, which indirectly indicates some changes in the well-being of people. Certain trends in the correlation of large and small businesses are revealed, which, are of a negative nature, in the opinion of author. Secondly, is presented a statistical evaluation of the role and place of trade in the Russian economy. The following four statistical indicators assessing the share of trade in the social-and-economic performance are considered: gross value added; a total volume of trade capital stock; the number of trade personnel; financial and economic results of trading activities. The indicators of GVA and the profitability of sales noted a reduction in the share of trade. Therefore, there is reason to believe that a trend of some reduction of the role of trade in the Russian economy was outlined. However, a certain contradiction occurs: in terms of indicators of basic funds and labour productivity the reduction was not detected. This fact can be associated with both inertia and inflationary effects. Thirdly, the main regularities of the formation of living standard of the population under the conditions of the social stratification of consume, formed as a result of trading activity are revealed and analyzed. The article shows the development trends of turnover per capita, which is considered as a market evaluation of living standard. A characteristic in actual and comparable prices is emphasized. The territorial differences in level of trade turnover per capita are shown. The influence of some factors which caused these differences is revealed. A special attention is given to the problem of the evaluation of social stratification of population. The article is based on the author’s calculations made on the basis of the statistical data contained in the statistical handbooks and yearbooks of Rosstat and some matters of Internet.
ISSN 2313-6383 (Print)
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)