QUESTIONS OF METHODOLOGY
This article addresses the challenges of accounting for and monitoring industrial robotization processes in Russia. Industrial robotization is viewed as one of the key instruments for increasing labor productivity and achieving the country’s technological sovereignty, including in the context of national development goals. The authors focus on the indicator of robot density and its role in the system for monitoring strategic policy targets.
The study presents a comparative analysis of national and international methodologies for calculating indicators, including the practices of the International Federation of Robotics (IFR) and Eurostat. It highlights differences in the approaches to defining industrial robots, the scope of data coverage, and the analytical capacity of the respective indicators. Based on statistical data for 2023–2024, the article examines the deployment of industrial robots across Russia’s regions and identifies territorial disparities in their distribution.
The authors propose measures to improve the monitoring system for industrial robotization aimed at enhancing the accuracy and reliability of statistical data. These include refining calculation methodologies, increasing the analytical content of indicators, and shifting from purely quantitative measurements to a more comprehensive evaluation of robotization effects. The practical significance of the study lies in outlining directions for enhancing the statistical monitoring of robotization processes and in supporting the development of evidence-based strategic benchmarks for national industrial policy.
MATHEMATICAL AND STATISTICAL METHODS IN ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING
This article examines factors driving heterogeneity in the impact of monetary policy on fixed capital investment across sectors of the Russian economy. The authors refer to the Bank of Russia’s key rate as the monetary policy instrument that influences overnight interbank lending rates. The study highlights significant factors that can potentially affect the investment dynamics across various industries.
The methodological framework of the study is based on monetary concepts. The methods used in this work include econometric analysis of shocks of various natures affecting the target variable, as well as modelling and comparative analysis. Data from Rosstat, the Unified Interagency Information Statistical System (EMISS), the Bank of Russia, global commodity exchanges, and the OECD Database, covering the years 2013 to 2022, served as the information base for this study.
The first stage of the study involved identifying key drivers of industry investment dynamics, which included global commodity prices, exchange rate fluctuations, and monetary policy decisions. The second stage revealed the reasons for heterogeneity of the monetary policy effects on investments in different industries.
The findings underline the importance of the interest rate and the credit channels of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, as well as the role of investment decisions. The results of the study clarify why some industries are more sensitive to monetary policy shocks, and can guide the choice of effective investment stimulus measures.
The article is devoted to analyzing the stability of the causal relationship between changes in oil prices and the dynamics of the Russian stock market, whose primary indicator is the RTS Index. The main goal of the research is to test the hypothesis of the persistence of a stable influence of oil price shocks (driven by fluctuations in supply, demand, and supply expectations) on the RTS Index amid structural shifts in the Russian economy during the period from 1999 to 2019.
The novelty of the approach proposed by the author lies in applying the core tool for studying causality – the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model – to decompose oil price shocks into their constituent sources based on the reasons for their occurrence and to assess the RTS Index's response to them. Additionally, the Moving Block Bootstrap (MBB) method is used to test the significance of changes in the stock index's impulse responses. The research results indicate that, despite the detection of a structural break in the stock market variable equation, the differences in its impulse responses to oil price shocks before and after this break are statistically insignificant, which confirms the proposed hypothesis. Thus, it can be argued that a stable causal relationship exists between oil prices and the Russian stock index throughout the entire analyzed period, including global economic crises and domestic economic transformations in Russia.
The study contributes to understanding the long-term dynamics of the interconnections between the commodity and financial sectors of the Russian economy, highlighting the critical importance of the energy component for the stability of the national stock market.
STATISTICS IN SOCIO-ECONOMIC STUDIES
This article examines differences in the structure, direction, and infrastructure provision of industrial cluster projects implemented by regions of the Volga Federal District that are listed in the register of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation and have received federal and regional support. The Volga Federal District was selected due to its high concentration of registered clusters, making it a representative case for analysis. As a research method, the study employs statistical analysis of official statistical data and industrial cluster projects in the Volga Federal District regions, combined with comparative analysis and generalization of the obtained data. Its novelty lies in providing a quantitative assessment of industrial cluster project directions, structural features, and infrastructure provision. Most projects are oriented towards creating favorable production conditions and facilitating modernization, while a smaller proportion are dedicated to research and new product development. The findings can inform decision-making on funding and infrastructure provision for Volga Federal District regions by state and municipal authorities.
The article examines the implementation progress of the national project «Healthcare» across the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The study relies on official data from the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, Rosstat, Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System (EMISS), and the Unified Portal of the Budget System of the Russian Federation («Electronic Budget»). The authors conduct a statistical analysis of the indicators for monitoring the project's implementation and create a distribution of Russian regions based on the level of implementation of the national project «Healthcare».
The methodological approach employs composite indicators, enabling a typology of regions based on their performance against national project targets. The authors establish thatin many regions, socially significant project results have not been achieved, which should be taken into account when allocating budgetary funds to maximize the efficiency of implementing the national project.
The conducted study focuses on a comprehensive differentiation of constituent entities of the Russian Federation in implementing the «Healthcare» national project, identifying institutional and infrastructural constraints, and developing evidence-based recommendations to enhance the effectiveness of budget allocations, taking into account socio-economic specifics of the regions.
The scientific novelty of the study lies in its methodological approach to assessing the integrated implementation level of the national project across constituent entities of the Russian Federation, which includes constructing composite indicators. Its relevance stems from the pressing need to refine the existing financing mechanisms for socially significant projects.
SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC STUDIES
The article examines the problem of reliability of statistical data from available sources used in historical and demographic studies.
This publication aims to draw the attention of historians and demographers studying the population of Russia in the past to the need for a critical evaluation of sources, including the well-known and comprehensive «Encyclopedic Dictionary» by Brockhaus and Efron (hereinafter referred to as «Encyclopedic Dictionary»).
The primary goal of the analysis is to explain discrepancies and misinterpretations of data that arise from the use of statistical information without considering the historical context and results of other studies.
The authors compare infant mortality rates in the urban population of Russia during the last decade of the 19th century, calculated from publications of the Central Statistical Committee (CSC) of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Empire and according to data from the section «Population» of the article «Russia» in the « Encyclopedic Dictionary». As a result of the study, it was found that when transferring data on the numbers of deaths from the CSC collections to the section «Population» of the «Encyclopedic Dictionary», part of the information was not taken into account or not reflected properly, which caused discrepancies, and the figures were underestimated. Therefore, relying solely on information from the « Encyclopedic Dictionary» may lead to erroneous conclusions that contradict the results of other studies on this topic.
Finally, the authors emphasize that when conducting historical and demographic studies, it is essential to refer to primary statistical data, critically analyze secondary and tertiary information resources, rely on the results of previous work by statisticians and demographers, and consider the historical context in their assessments of demographic processes. Broadening the source base through further digitization of historical documents and the use of web technologies will increase the availability and reliability of data.
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
CHRONICLE, INFORMATION
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)