Aggregate Transfer Accounts for the Russian Federation: framework for construction and analysis

This article addresses the framework for constructing and analysing National Transfer Accounts. NTA  is a very useful analysis tool to study changes in the age structure of the population and income distribution processes between generations, and their economic impact on GDP. In some countries, NTA  is actively used in long-term macroeconomic forecasting (on 40-years period and more). Main NTA indicators calculate with using of national accounts database (SNA).  A vital element of the research is determining economic lifecycle results for all age-groups and identify its primary funding sources.

The  article considers comprehensive methodological and  practical approaches to the compiling the three aggregate transfer accounts - life cycle account, public reallocation account and private reallocation account - and using them as a basis for the analysis of socio-demographic processes in Russia. The macro analysis presented in the article is based on statistics of national accounts and other information sources for the years 2003-2017.

The conducted analysis resulted in compiling the system of aggregate transfer accounts for Russia for 2003-2017 and in identifying quantitative parameters of Russian economy life cycle balance and in examining qualitative changes in its funding sources. The authors own analysis demonstrated that while in 2003-2010 economic life circle balance was positive (except for the crisis year of 2009),  in 2011-2016 it became negative. The  State has been playing an increasing role in financing the economic life cycle deficit.

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