International Trade in the Changing World: Economic and Statistical Analysis

Abstract

Based on an analysis of the time series of the ratios of export, import, and foreign trade turnover to GDP, the article periodizes the dynamics of world trade from 1970 to 2023. The features of these indices that require attention when interpreting their changes are shown. The growth in the intensity of foreign trade was followed in the 1970s by its stagnation in the 1980s and then by a new growth which, in turn, was stopped by the global financial and economic crisis of 2008–2009. After its end and until now, the growth in the intensity of international trade in the world as a whole has not resumed. Simultaneously, since 2014 there has been an increase in geopolitical fragmentation of the world trade. Nowadays, it manifests itself primarily in the rapid growth of turnover between Russia and China, further contraction of Russia’s turnover with EU countries, and a dramatic fall of China's share in the total U.S. import in 2023.
Comparison of the ratios of export, import and foreign trade turnover to GDP with the KOF globalization index reveals synchroneity of changes in international trade and globalization as a whole. The common factor guiding the dynamics of both processes is a change in the world order, the breaking points of which are the crises generated by this change. The movement toward a multipolar world order is accompanied today by new strengthening of the barrier functions of state borders, resulting in a slowdown or reverse of globalization in its most vital domains, including international trade.