Об альтернативных оценках экономического развития бывших республик СССР, стран Восточной Европы и Китая

Аннотация

Based on the experience of multivariate alternative assessments of changes in macroeconomic indicators of the USSR and modern Russia, an alternative calculation of the GDP time series for the large majority of the former Soviet republics, countries of the Eastern Europe and China in the first decade of the XXIst century is carried out. The author’s assessment is based on data on the changes in two important indicators of economic dynamics: the amount of electricity consumption and the volume of freight transportation. To identify the relationship between the real GDP growth (decline) rates and growth (decline) rates of the above-mentioned indicators is used the information from six major economically developed countries with sufficiently reliable, from our point of view, macroeconomic statistics. The results of the experimental study showed that alternative evaluations of GDP time series for the majority of countries (excluding China) is lower then official figures on economic growth. Reasons for the relatively low economic growth rates are commented on. Data corroborating strong interrelation between the rate of GDP accumulation trend and economic growth rates are analyzed.