STATISTICAL METHODS IN ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING
Improving competitiveness in the scientifi c and technological sphere is one of the strategic directions for development of the national economy of the Russian Federation. In this regard, the scientifi c and technological potential and the degree of alignment of scientifi c, public and production resources come to the fore as the main components of the national power of the Russian Federation. This article addresses questions of selecting the criteria for assessing economic security in scientifi c and technological sphere amidst the formation of national innovative system in the Russian Federation using the triple helix model. The authors reviewed the existing systems of criteria and indicators, proposed matrix indicators to assess economic security in a scientifi c and technological fi eld according to the triple helix principle, calculated values of indicators according to the data from forty-three countries, made comparative analysis of the normalized partial indicators. The authors also formulated conclusion showing the strengths and weaknesses of scientifi c and technological sphere in the Russian Federation.
The article presents the authors’ point of view on the results of the socio-economic development of Russia in 2018 and provides an analytical assessment of forecasts for 2019 and 2020 and estimates for the immediate prospects for the development of the country. The focus is on ensuring the implementation of the May (2018) Decree of the President of the Russian Federation.
The authors analyzed the state and confirmed directions to overcome stagnation, first of all, by eliminating the lag in the technological level of production and ensuring the growth in labor productivity, enhancing business, investment and consumer activity, increasing the efficiency of capital investments as key factors affecting the growth in the real sector and the knowledge economy, including industrial production , agriculture, capital construction.
The paper highlights the weak links in the current management system and proposes measures to overcome the existing structural crisis. There is a need for a socio-economic policy change that should be aimed at ensuring the health of a nation.
The authors compared Russian and global trends in key development indicators, such as gross domestic product (GDP), industrial production, foreign trade.
A comparative assessment of the 2020 and 2021 forecasts of the considered key macroeconomic indicators (including the real sector of the economy as a driver of socio-economic progress) is presented. The projected in 2019 and 2020 slowdown in the global economy, the expected fall in global trade and the expansion of trade wars and sanctions, as well as the existing import dependence may contribute to the growing negative trend in the Russian economy and lead to stagnation escalating into recession.
REGIONAL STATISTICS
The article addresses organizational challenges and methodological issues that state statistical bodies face while preparing for and conducting household budget sample survey (HBS). Among these problems, the author considers the difficulties associated with ensuring the quality of HBS results and minimizing the number of respondent refusals to participate in this observation.
According to the author, the range of tasks to be solved includes, among other things, methodological and organizational aspects, such as the need to review certain regulations of the HBS by-laws, search for reserves to reduce the survey program, to change the order of generating sample units, and a number of other provisions. In this regard, the author proposes to decrease the information load on respondents. It includes reducing the time of filling out the questionnaire, as well as applying an updated approach to the formation of the respondent network. In addition, the author emphasizes the need to increase the level of automation of collecting and processing of primary HBS data.
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
The article deals with the economic and statistical analysis of trends in the development of statistical data on the balance of payments and the international investment position of Russia over the past 15 years, indicating the sustainable development of the foreign economic sector of the Russian economy.
The article begins with addressing the scope and subject matter of the study of the balance of payments and the international investment position of the country. Then the author examines external economic activities for each of the three periods depicting the influence of the crisis phenomena in the global economy in 1998, 2008 and 2014. Within these periods the author considers the interaction of the world and Russian economies, serious reduction of the external sector of the Russian economy in these periods of crisis and generally the deterioration of the results of foreign economic activity of the country. Comparing the balance of payments and international investment position before and after crisis periods it is possible to note the good state government management of the external sector of the Russian economy, which helped to restore the balance of payments of the country and to increase its net international investment position after the crisis.
On a final note, it is concluded that the most effective and efficient for external regulation in a crisis is the so called profitable method when the expense of centralized redistribution of income and cash management of financial flows, is formed in the margin in the markets, determines the scale and direction of cash flows, are governed by incorporated in the cost of exported products yield. The market method with the help of tariff pricing and regulation does not allow to fully control and predict the vector of cash flows in a crisis, redistribute profitability between sectors of the economy and even “save” borrowers in crisis situation.
IN THE COURSE OF DISCUSSION
PAGES OF HISTORY
The activity of state statistics throughout the revolutionary period of 1917 is uncharted territory in the history of Russian statistics. Using documents from the State Archive of the Russian Federation, the authors examined for the first time the last year of the Central Statistical Committee. Unlike other state structures of the previous government, it was not dissolved after the events of October 1917 and continued to operate after the Soviet government moved to Moscow.
The article contains information on the first «Soviet» Head of the Central Statistical Committee of the Commissariat of Internal Affairs V.A. Algasov and outlines the work of Professor M.A. Sirinov, who was offered a position of the Head of the Central Statistical Committee by the People’s Commissar of Internal Affairs G.I. Petrovsky. Archive records helped establish the fact that both the authorities of the Central Statistical Committee and some statisticians came up with an idea of founding a new statistical service based on the Central Statistical Committee and gubernia (provincial) statistics. The authors revealed the role of V.V. Stepanov in relocating the Library of the Central Statistical Committee to Moscow. The article describes the clash of opinions that preceded the establishment of the Soviet state statistics, to be specific the inauguration of the RSFSR Central Statistical Board, which was envisaged to be an independent body, not subordinate to any agency, to ensure the independence of the country’s statistical service.
The article examines how the outcome of international statistical congresses shaped A.M. Zolotarev (1853-1912) ideas regarding the reform of Russian state statistics. From 1903 to 1911 A.M. Zolotarev served as director of the Central Statistical Committee (CSC) of the Ministry of the Interior.
A draft reform prepared on his initiative was submitted to the State Duma in 1908 and then rejected by the State Council in 1910. The structure of state statistics in the A.M. Zolotarev project was consistent with the resolutions of international statistical congresses, mainly the 6th (Florentine) congress of 1867. The outcome of this congress was taken into consideration by the first head of the Central Statistical Bureau P.I. Popov (1872-1950) when establishing a centralized statistical system for Soviet Russia in 1918.
In this work the author used materials of the Russian State Historical Archive (RGIA). Although those documents date back to the beginning of the XX century the range of issues that they cover still interest both international statistical community and scholars in Russia. For instance, the statisticians discuss the organization of local statistical bodies, the issues of centralization and decentralization of the statistical system, the subordination of official statistics to other authorities and governing bodies. This article describes the historical context and aspects of establishing the statistical system in Russia and explores the influence of international practices on this process. In current conditions, this paper is relevant for defining directions for reforming the statistics system today.
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)