No 10 (2016)
QUESTIONS OF METHODOLOGY
3-11 525
Abstract
The author consistently reviewes the organization of the wages (earnings) statistics in Russia, disclosed a system of statistical indicators of wages, described its information and methodological support. The paper outlines the system of statistical indicators in this field, along with their methodology and information sources. The author focuses on specific sections of statistics on wages (earnings) that have been developed very recently primarily in order to monitor the execution of the Presidents' «May decrees» (for example, on those categories of employees whose wages are meant to be raised). The paper supports the introduction into statistical practice the indicator of average monthly wages for all employees (for organizations, individual entrepreneurs and individuals). Development of the new sample survey of the population in Russia - survey of population income and social programs participation - allowed for adding a new indicator of average hourly wages to the considered system of statistical indicators. The article also analyses procedures for the formation of the wage differentiation, average monthly wages by occupational characteristics, as well as wages of state and municipal employees. The author concludes, indicating that official statistical information on wages (earnings) developed by Rosstat and structured as a multidimensional system of statistical indicators has significant potential as a comprehensive study of wages (earnings) which is an essential labour marker indicator.
12-21 623
Abstract
The article examines problems related to the measurement of Russian inflation that lead to distorted perception of economic reality which economic agents have. The authors discuss recent changes in methods for constructing the Russian consumer price index (CPI) and the effect this will have on the economic policy. The change in the information base upon which the weights are based, has resulted in the fact that (all other things being equal) the CPI, calculated according to the new methodology, shows a somewhat higher rate of inflation. This creates a more pessimistic view of the situation in the economy and provokes a more stringent monetary policy. The paper discusses approaches to the analysis of tendencies in the prices dynamics on the example the accelerating inflation episode of the end of 2014 - early 2015. It is shown that common incorrect methods for analysis of short-term trends lead to conclusions about the duration of the episode and the dating of the respective turning points that are known to be wrong. The author review those features of the CPI constructing technique, which affect the accuracy of inflation measurement amid economic crises. An incomplete accounting of household expenditures on housing is shown to result in an overestimation of the CPI growth rate for the cost of living in the initial phase of the crisis and in their underestimation at the stage of post-crisis recovery. All these distortions can the cause of sub-optimal decisions and influence the operation of economy. The paper discusses the nature of this influence and associated costs.
22-30 489
Abstract
The article covers questions of statistical observation over commissioning (putting in place) of residential buildings (dwellings) constructed by population at own expense and credits. Changes in accounting procedure and technical inventory of individual housing construction projects due to the revision of functions of those organizations previously responsible for record-keeping and introduction of cadastre system for immovable property items (according to the Federal Law № 221-FZ from 24.07.2007) led to necessity to upgrade organization of statistical observation. Federal State Statistics Service took some measures to insure integrity and consistency of data on residential buildings (dwellings) constructed by the population, including by means of widening the scope of respondents on account of organizations that are under the jurisdiction of the Federal Service for state registration, cadastre and cartography. The authors review the subject of primary accounting documents confirming the construction of individual housing projects. The paper present suggestions about making obligatory the permit for commissioning individual housing construction projects for private developers.
31-43 543
Abstract
This article presents the following subjects: - review of methodological questions associated with carrying out of one of the oldest surveys in the system of state statistics, which is the distribution of employees of organizations by accrued wages, and features of these distributions; formation of projected calculations of distribution series and their features during intersurvey period; - historical stages of formation of distribution series and their characteristics for the last 20 years; - analysis, peculiarities of distribution series and their characteristics for the Russian economy in general, kinds of economic activities, regions of the country at each and every stage of economic development for the period from 1986 to 2016 are defined; - selected economic activities in which calculations of actual and projected distribution series and their characteristics point out the shortcomings in organization of work process and remuneration that call for making serious decisions. The authors present the calculation table for the basic features of the distribution series for the 1986-2016. It includes two enumeration methods of basic features by mean interval wages derived from survey data and estimated mean interval wages, defined as a semi-sum of interval limits. This makes it possible to visually determine the capabilities and benefits of each of the proposed enumeration methods. On the basis of thorough analysis of actual and estimated distribution series and their features the authors highlighted economic activities that require serious consideration when it comes to methods of organization and remuneration.
REGIONAL STATISTICS
73-85 426
Abstract
The article presents results of a study on determining the directions for structural transformation of economy of the Krasnoyarsk Territory which would promote sustainable economic development and thus improve the performance of current economic system. This study revealed the degree to which the structure of territory economy can affect the key indicator of economic performance of the region - that is living standards of the population. This research was conducted, using cluster analysis and similarity evaluation, it demonstrated that one of the conditions for improving the regional economy’s resistance to external and internal factors is to increase the share of the following kinds of activities in the structure of territorial GRP: «Agriculture, hunting and forestry» (OKVED, Section A) and «Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles and personal and household goods» (OKVED, Section G) - which should be followed by the reduction of the existing dependency of the economic system from mining and quarrying. In the same vein evaluation of series of regression models proved that structure of regional economy and the changes that it had undergone over the period in question, failed to demonstrate significant impact on living standards indicators, such as average wages and median age at death. The conclusions, that were formulated on the basis of this research can be taken into account during the decision making process by those state authorities of the Krasnoyarsk territory that are responsible for implementing regional economic policy.
STATISTICAL METHODS IN THE STUDY OF SOCIAL PROCESSES
44-56 450
Abstract
This paper considers the structural decomposition approach which identifies the sources of dynamic changes in output and import of goods and services. For analysis the authors use the time series of symmetrical input-output tables for Russia based on NACE rev. 1 classification from WIOD project. The results of the analysis allow one to determine the influence of changes in technology (intermediate demand) and final demand on the increase or decrease in the value of output of domestic goods and services and imports in the whole economy and at the level of 34 industries for the period from 2003 to 2010. Due to the lack of relevant statistics, many a priori assumptions were used in the construction of input-output tables at current and constant prices. Therefore, the estimates obtained from our calculations are mostly illustrative and show features of structural decomposition analysis. In particular, by using this method it is possible to estimate the ratio between the contribution of domestic production and imports by types of goods and services to increase in both the intermediate and final demand. In the latter case, that relates to the final demand of households and growth in gross fixed investment.
57-63 614
Abstract
The article deals with the concept of import of food products; it features volume and value assessment of products according to data from customs statistics. The conducted economic and statistical analysis of the import substitution processes in the food sector made it possible to measure the trend of decline in the share of imported products in retail trade and assess the magnitude of import substitution. Based on analysis of balance sheets for major food resources in the Russian Federation the author concludes that a significant portion of commodity resources of the main types of food products is still formed from imports that exceed food security threshold. This is a negative factor for economic development of Russia, as financial resources that are spent on purchasing and servicing imports are in fact unrealized investments in domestic production. To enhance the informative value the author suggests that data on the resource balance and use of food products should be presented in a form of input-output tables, which will allow for a more objective analysis of import substitution processes and develop measures fostering the effective use of food resources. In the current situation when main food resources are generated with a significant share of imports to better assess the stability of the domestic production the article proposes to use two indicators: the level of self-reliance and the dependency ratio. The analysis of food self-sufficiency of the Russian Federation that was conducted on the basis of these indicators revealed notable differences in the degree of dependence on imports of certain types of meat and meat products, especially poultry and pork. Final section of the paper formulates improving directions for the information base used to analyze the import of food products at the macro, meso and micro levels of management.
64-72 821
Abstract
The article examines modern trends in vital statistics of Russia from the viewpoint of threats to national security; it includes quantitative analysis of interaction among demographic components of population change. The authors consider the role that Russia plays in global demographic processes and its position within the largest countries in the world by population size. Using statistical tools the paper evaluates modern trends in reproduction of population in Russia amid revealing demographic threats to the efficient socioeconomic development of the country. It also presents analysis of quantitative as well as qualitative characteristics of population replacement processes, which include total value and rate of childbearing, and quality of gene pool of the population. Statistical analysis of quantitative characteristics of mortality (i.e. indicators of mortality from external causes) served as the foundation for identifying modern trends in natural decrease of population in the Russian Federation.
PAGES OF HISTORY
ISSN 2313-6383 (Print)
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)