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No 2 (2015)

QUESTIONS OF METHODOLOGY

3-15 340
Abstract
The review was prepared in order to further harmonize the most important items of the Nomenclature of industrial products data on which is collected by the CIS Statcommittee, to formulate unified approaches that define names of the goods and explanatory notes for their groupings to ensure the reliability and comparability of statistical data, on the space of CIS countries, and at the international level. The review includes a brief description of the model Statistical Classification of Products (hereinafter SKP-2), developed by the CIS Statcommittee, and national classifications of products used by the statistical services of the CIS member states, as well as forming the Nomenclature of industrial products, in accordance with which the exchange of information is carried out.
16-22 332
Abstract
Algorithms for logical reconciliation of statistical reporting indicators, such as the change in the value of fixed assets, turnover, intermediate consumption, finance leases, income from financial investments are developed by the authors of this article. New approaches are based on the expansion of the information resources based on the data from statistical reporting and business accounting, and are developed for further modernization of the vertical system for monitoring statistical indicators used in the calculation of the SNA. The scheme for controlling accuracy of the information on the changes in the value of fixed assets based on the analysis of the capital flows and formation of financial results is described. Are identified additional opportunities for reconciliation of the turnover and earnings, intermediate consumption and production costs using data from the report on cash flows, which is especially important if, according to value added calculation results, were developed unsatisfactory coefficients. Correlations between the performance of the statistical reporting and business accounting on the volume, structure and profitability of financial investments are determined. The ways of checking for consistency are suggested, referring to the special aspects of developing indicators for statistical purposes.

FACTS, ESTIMATES, FORECASTS

50-72 366
Abstract
The article discusses the main results of economic development of Russia in 2014 in comparison with those of 2013. Trend analysis and forecasts of macroeconomic and sectoral indicators for 2015 are presented. The authors consider the situation in the public sector, real economy and provide forecasts for the development of industrial production, agriculture, capital construction. Different options for the development of the economy are analyzed. An assessment of the influence that international sanctions, energy prices, national currency, inflation expectations have on the social- and- economic development is presented. Reasons that brought the existing situation to the form that it takes are examined; factors contributing to the sustainable macroeconomic development - including through balancing government programs and large infrastructure projects with financial resources, transition to strategic planning and forecasting - are identified. The dynamics of the Russian economy and global economic trends are compared.
73-78 279
Abstract
The article presents assessment of the development of the tax potential of regions of the North West Federal District by a number of indicators in view of the territories for 2013. The analysis of revenues of the consolidated budgets of the regions of the North West Federal District is carried out. The presented information is based on the official statistical data from Rosstat and its territorial offices. Data from the analytical report on form 1-NM of the Federal Tax Service of Russia, compiled by experts served as a basis for this analysis. Using the full set of indicators the corresponding ranking is made, determining the position of the each region in line with the set of criteria under review, that allows to estimate the position of each subject in the structure of revenues in this Federal district.

MATHEMATICAL AND STATISTICAL METHODS IN ANALYSIS

23-36 731
Abstract
At present time there are two indicators which are mainly used for estimates of differentiation of incomes of the population -coefficient of funds and Gini index. Being informative to a certain extent they however have a number of drawbacks. The article examines methodology of calculation and analysis of differentiation of the money incomes of population (alongside with traditional indicators such as coefficient of funds and Gini index) on the basis of integral estimates of the polarization indices of money income of population. The author gives the methodology of the distribution parameters calculation according to reports of Federal State Statistics Service of Russian Federation for the log-normal distribution of population. Apart from the known indicators the article suggests using new ones for assessing the stratification of the population by the level of money income - indicators of income polarization. The average income in the distribution is taken for the polarization border. The author considers the number and incomes of population below and above the average. The specific values of income are calculated and compared with each other in each ofthese groups. The author provides definition, methods and examples of calculation for polarization indices. For the first time ever it was proved that for log-normal distribution of the population the share of incomes of the population with incomes below the average level exactly equals the share of population with incomes above the average level. The proof of this statement follows the validity of the converse - for log-normal distribution the share of incomes of the population with incomes above the average level exactly equals the share of population with incomes below the average level. The polarization index is determined by arithmetical operations with a single value of standard function which is - any share of population or money income with income below or above the average level. The author determines the trajectory of movement of this index in the coordinates «the shares of population - the shares of money income». Index of polarization differs from the Gini coefficient by clear economic interpretation, simplicity and accuracy of calculations. Moreover, the polarization index can be calculated taking into account the income of «disadvantaged» groups. It is shown that in addition to using the polarization index, one can use the reciprocal - the criterion of polarization.
37-49 595
Abstract
On the basis of qualitative analysis of the structural components of the regional economy, the authors propose the best options for using the methodology for their quantitative evaluation. The results of substantive assessment of the structure of the economy are the following: firstly, determining the behavior of structural changes; secondly, identifying the structural imbalance; thirdly, developing the strategy for structural policy. Structural features necessary for the creation of structural policy are defined in this article. A set of variables, based on the dynamics of which, it is possible to form the policy of structural transformation at the macro - and mesoeconomic levels is proposed to be implemented. Applying econometric modeling to correlate indices of economic development with the rate of structural changes is suggested. This approach can be applied by state statistical bodies and regional ministries, dealing with economic issues.

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS

79-88 791
Abstract
The article analyses international practice of statistical records of services in foreign trade. The author elaborates on the contents of the main international standard in this field - UN «Manual on Statistics of International Trade in Services 2010» (MSITS 2010) in connection with other modern international standards, such as «System of National Accounts 2008» (2008 SNA), «Balance of Payments and International Investments Position 2008» (BPM6), «International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Concepts and Definitions 2010» (IMTS 2010). The article analyses relations between key provisions of the above mentioned documents from the statistical records in services sold and purchased in international markets. Problems of harmonization of improved versions of the main international standards in the field of foreign trade statistics are shown. The article has a special focus on the connection between theory and practice of foreign trade statistics in Russia and other countries highlighting methodological problems related to services statistics in foreign trade of different countries and in international trade in general. The article describes organizational features and methodologies of such services recording for compiling both the Balance of payments and statistical registration of foreign trade transactions between foreign affiliates; main differences in approaches and methods of these two types of statistics are revealed. It also considers questions of cost and quantity evaluations of international trade in services broken down by types of services and partner countries, as well as problems related to comparability of data in foreign trade statistics and creating the one source of information regarding trade in goods and services from customs statistics, the Balance of payments, statistics of foreign direct investments and foreign affiliates statistics. The author analyses the data from official statistical handbooks on foreign trade indicators.


ISSN 2313-6383 (Print)
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)