Statistical Analysis of Factors Determining Efficient Use of Foreign Investments in Uzbekistan
https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2019-26-9-59-65
Abstract
The article assesses the effective use of investments in fixed assets in Uzbekistan and includes results of regression analysis of the impact of changes in foreign direct investment (FDI) volumes on GDP. The author established that in the previous period economic growth in Uzbekistan was primality caused by domestic investments. At the same time, analysis of the ICOR (Incremental Capital Output Ratio) dynamics and cross-section analysis of the impact of FDI on GDP in 15 transition economies show that misallocation of domestic investment in fixed assets reduces a country’s attractiveness to foreign investors. To assess the synergy effect of the investments, the author used an «Input-Output» model, which allowed to determine industry-specific coefficients of final demand, reflecting the multiplicative effect of investments in fixed assets on GDP growth.
The degree of possible FDI influence on Uzbekistan current account balance was determined according to two scenarios, depending on
the capacity of the economy to attract FDI and the degree of export-orientedness.
The results of the empirical analysis revealed an urgent need to strengthen the synergy effect of investment efficiency factors by combining them and simultaneously creating new qualities (emergence). Additionally, based on the revealed highest multiplier effect of the investments in following Uzbekistan’s industries: engineering, chemical and light industry, production of textiles, clothing, and electrical equipment and devices - the author formulated recommendations for increasing their attractiveness to foreign investors.
About the Author
Sh. Kh. Nazarov
Center for Economic Research
Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan
D-r Sci. (Econ.), Director
Tashkent. 6, Novza Str., Tashkent, 100043, Republic of Uzbekis
References
1. Nazarov Sh.Kh. The Methodological Aspects of Improving the Competitiveness of Regions. Tashkent: IFMR Publ.; 2014. 212 p. (In Russ.)
2. Lin J.Y. New Structural Economics: a Framework for Rethinking Development. Washington, DC: The World Bank; 2012. Available from: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DEC/Resources/84797-1104785060319/598886-1104951889260/NSE-Book.pdf.
3. Rahaman A., Chakraborty S. Effects of Foreign Direct Investment on GDP: Empirical Evidence from Developing Country. Advances in Economics and Business. 2015;3(12):587-592. doi: 10.13189/aeb.2015. 031207.
4. Mottaleb K.A. Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment and Its Impact on Economic Growth in Developing Countries. MPRA Paper 9457, University Library of Munich. 2007. 15 p.
5. Chertok A.V. et al. Regime Switching Detection for the Levy Driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process Using CUSUM Methods. Informatics and Applications. 2016; 10(4):46-56. (In Russ.)
6. Nazarov Sh.Kh. Use Investment Potential. Economic Review. 2018;(7):26-39. (In Russ.)
7. Bezborodova A.V. On the Econometric Modeling of Analysis and Forecasting of Investments in Fixed Assets. Economics, Modeling and Forecasting. 2008;2:97-108. (In Russ.)
8. Nair-Reichert U., Weinhold D. Causality Tests for Cross-Country Panels: New Look on FDI and Economic Growth in Developing Countries. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. 2001;63(2):153-171.
9. Peresada V.P. The Model of the Dynamics of Input-Output in the Region. Economics and Mathematical Methods. 1993;29(1):152-155. (In Russ.)
10. Peresada V.P. Management of the Dynamics of Economic Development Based on the Intersectoral Balance. Saint-Petersburg: Publ. House «Politekhnika-service»; 2010. 169 p. (In Russ.)
11. Macroeconomic Instruments. Economic Review. 2018;3:28-33. (In Russ.)
12. Thirlwall A.P. The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences. Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review. 1979;32(128):45-53.
13. Eatwell J. Import-Substituting and Export-Oriented Economic Growth. In: Economic Theory. Moscow: Infra-M Publ.; 2004. 432 p. (In Russ.)
14. Elfimov G.M. The Concept of «New» in the Theory of Emergent Evolution. Management Consulting. 2009; (1):187-222. (In Russ.)
15. Nazarov Sh.Kh. The Methodological Aspects of Improving the Competitiveness of Regions. Tashkent: IFMR Publ.; 2014. 212 p. (In Russ.)
Review
For citations:
Nazarov Sh.Kh. Statistical Analysis of Factors Determining Efficient Use of Foreign Investments in Uzbekistan. Voprosy statistiki. 2019;26(9):59-65. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2019-26-9-59-65
Views:
1612
Email this article 