Peculiarities of the Consumer Price Index Seasonal Adjustment
Abstract
Content analysis of consumer price index (CPI), as a main estimate of the inflation rate, implies a seasonal adjustment of data. Seasonal adjustment is related to several methodological issues, some of which are common for all seasonal economic time series. For example, the seasonal components may evolve during the time, i. e. the amplitude and frequency may change. The article reviews approaches to solving conceptual issues related to the seasonal adjustment of the consumer price index, its basic principles and methods; the authors present best international practices. Besides, some specific issues of consumer price index as an aggregate may arise. Another problem is caused by economic nature of some CPI components, so that common methods of seasonal adjustments cannot be applied. The proposed methodology shows in the authors’ opinion how to increase the quality of estimation and interpretation of short-term innovations in a consumer prices dynamics.
About the Authors
A. K. Sapova
Research and Forecasting Department of the Bank of Russia
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Chief Economist, Research and Forecasting Department, Bank of Russia
12, Neglinnaya Str., Moscow, 107016, Russia
A. S. Porshakov
Research and Forecasting Department of the Bank of Russia
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Cand. Sci. (Econ.); Head, Office of Research, Analysis and Forecasting, Research and Forecasting Department, Bank of Russia
12, Neglinnaya Str., Moscow, 107016, Russia
A. V. Andreev
Monetary Policy Department of the Bank of Russia
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Chief Economist ,Monetary Policy Department, Bank of Russia
12, Neglinnaya Str., Moscow, 107016, Russia
E. Yu. Shatilo
Monetary Policy Department of the Bank of Russia
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Leading economist, Monetary Policy Department, Bank of Russia
12, Neglinnaya Str., Moscow, 107016, Russia
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Review
For citations:
Sapova A.K., Porshakov A.S., Andreev A.V., Shatilo E.Yu. Peculiarities of the Consumer Price Index Seasonal Adjustment. Voprosy statistiki. 2018;25(5):42-54. (In Russ.)
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