Preview

Voprosy statistiki

Advanced search

QUANTIFICATION OF QUALITATIVE VARIABLES IN BUSINESS SURVEYS

Abstract

The data of business (market) surveys of entrepreneurial activity are an important source of economic information in national and international practice. Their results reflect the specific features of cognitive perception by business agents of business trends and sectoral cyclical events in various sectors of the country’s economy. Using the appropriate measurement procedures for the processing of structured distributions of entrepreneurial opinions makes it possible to obtain arrays of information that are the so-called «soft» non-quantitative statistics in the «near real-time» mode.

When analyzing the results of business surveys, first of all, there are the tasks of their quantitative characterization, measuring the relationships between the qualitative characteristics of the objects surveyed and the generalization of the interrelated information into summary indicators characterizing the scale of the distribution of cyclical industry events in the economic development of the country. In this regard, the authors present the main stages and methods for quantifying the results of surveys, in particular the procedure for scaling qualitative characteristics, their quantitative determination; the possibility of applying specific statistical measures is justified. For the generalized measurement of qualitative information, the concepts of horizontal and vertical integration of survey results are introduced. The questions of adequate and logical interpretation of balance statistics, based on subjective assessments of respondents, are considered. The authors formulated reasons for combining the results of the surveys into composite indicators, which make it possible to identify the most characteristic links among simple survey indicators and simplify the analysis and interpretation of the results as a whole.

About the Authors

L. A. Kitrar
National Research University Higher School of Economics
Russian Federation

Lyudmila A. Kitrar - Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Deputy Director, Centre for Business Tendencies Studies, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge.

 4, Slavyanskaya Sq., Bld. 2, Moscow, 101000



T. M. Lipkind
National Research University Higher School of Economics
Russian Federation

Tamara M. Lipkind - Leading Expert, Centre for Business Tendencies Studies.

4, Slavyanskaya Sq., Bld. 2, Moscow, 101000



G. V. Ostapkovich
National Research University Higher School of Economics
Russian Federation

Georgii V. Ostapkovich - Director, Centre for Business Tendencies Studies, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge.

4, Slavyanskaya Sq., Bld. 2, Moscow, 101000



References

1. Suppes P., Zines J. Foundations of the Measurement Theory. Psychological Measurements. Moscow: Mir Publ.; 1967. (In Russ.)

2. Pfanzagl J. Theory of Measurement. Physica-Verlag. Wьrzburg-Wien; 1971. (Russ. ed.: Pfantsagl’ I. Teoriya izmerenii. Moscow: Mir Publ.; 1976.)

3. Paniotto V.I., Maksimenko V.S. Quantitative Methods in Sociological Research. Kiev: Naukova Dumka Publ.; 1982. (In Russ.)

4. Mirkin B.G. Analysis of Qualitative Features and Structures. Moscow: Statistics Publ.; 1980. (In Russ.)

5. Tolstova Yu.N. Measurement in Sociology: Textbook. Moscow: KDU Publ.; 2007. (In Russ.)

6. Saganenko G.I., Yadova V.A. (ed.) Sociological Information. Leningrad: Science Publ.; 1979. (In Russ.)

7. Gini C. Average values. Moscow: Statistics Publ.; 1970. (In Russ.)

8. European Commission. A User Guide to the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, 2017. Available from: https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/bcs_user_guide_en_0.pdf.

9. OECD. Business Tendency Survey. A Handbook, 2003. Available from: http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/31837055.pdf.

10. Anderson O. The Business Test of the IFO-Institute for Economic Research, Munich, and its Theoretical Model. Review of the International Statistical Institute. 1952;(20):1-17.

11. Leach A., Belegratis A. Evaluating the Performance of Aggregate Survey-based Indicators in Times of Crisis. Confederation of British Industry. Final Report submitted for ECFIN-BCS Workshop. 2016.

12. Kitrar L.A., Lipkind T.M., Ostapkovich G.V. Decomposition and Joined Analysis of Growth Cycles in the Dynamics of Economic Sentiment Indicator and Volume Index of the Gross Domestic Product. Voprosy statistiki. 2014;(9):41-46.

13. Kitrar L., Lipkind T., Lola I., Ostapkovich G., Chusovlyanov D. The HSE ESI and Short-Term Cycles in the Russian Economy. Papers and Studies of Research Institute for Economic Development SGH. 2015;(97).

14. Abberger K. Qualitative Business Surveys and the Assessment of Employment - A Case Study for Germany. International Journal of Forecasting. 2014;(23):249258.

15. Malgarini M. Industrial production and confidence after the crisis: what’s going on? MRPA paper No 53813. 2012.

16. Nilsson R., Guidetti E. Predicting Business Cycle. OECD Statistics Brief. 2018. Available from: http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/40182804.pdf.

17. Theil H. On the Time Shape of Economic Variables and the Munich Business Test. Revue de l’Institute International de Statistique. 1952;(20).

18. Carlson J., Parkin M. Inflation Expectations. Economica. 1975;(42).

19. Pesaran M.H. Expectations Formation and Macroeconomic Modelling. In: Magrange P., Muet. P. (eds.) Contemporary Macroeconomic Modelling. Blackwell, Oxford; 1984.

20. OECD System of Composite Leading Indicators. 2012. Available from: http://www.oecd.org/std/leadingindicators/41629509.pdf.

21. Kitrar L.A., Ostapkovich G.V. Issues of Measuring Business Cycles: Development of Conceptual Designs and Basic Observation Parameters. Voprosy statistiki. 2013;(4):22-27. (In Russ.)

22. Kitrar L.A., Ostapkovich G.V. Special Features and implementation Directions of the Indicator Approach in Cyclic Monitoring of Economic Dynamics. Voprosy statistiki. 2013;(8):42-50. (In Russ.)

23. Kitrar L.A., Ostapkovich G.V. Integrated Approach to the Construction of Compositional Indicators with Builtin Algorithm for Cycle Evaluation in Time Series of the Market Monitoring Results. Voprosy statistiki. 2013;(12):2334. (In Russ.)


Review

For citations:


Kitrar L.A., Lipkind T.M., Ostapkovich G.V. QUANTIFICATION OF QUALITATIVE VARIABLES IN BUSINESS SURVEYS. Voprosy statistiki. 2018;25(4):49-63. (In Russ.)

Views: 561


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.


ISSN 2313-6383 (Print)
ISSN 2658-5499 (Online)