QUESTIONS OF TECHNIQUE USED FOR SHORT - TERM ESTIMATES AND MACROECONOMIC FORECASTING

Abstract

Current economic analysis, planning of budget revenues, supporting medium-term forecasts and economic policy measures require not only quarterly macroeconomic statistics that is widely used now but also retrospective and current data with a shorter step length. The article summarizes the techniques and practical experience of specialists from the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia in the reconstruction for these purposes of monthly series of macroeconomic indicators based on official statistics using quarterly accounts and higher-frequency indicators, as well as methods for their short-term estimation and forecasting. Disaggregation techniques for the time-series of high-frequency indicators, proposed by specialists in this field were used to reconstruct the monthly series of GDP components for the production account at prices of 2011. Issues concerning disaggregation technique are discussed in the article. The author proposes a method for restoring monthly series of GDP components at current prices, calculated using production account and income account. The actual trends of monthly changes in the main indicators, excluding the seasonal factor, are analyzed from the view of their susceptibility to the crisis phenomena of 2014-2017. This article presents main methods of short-term forecasting of macroeconomic indicators with account to their relationship map with the final demand and the growth of potential GDP. It is demonstrated that both approaches are linked by the representation of the «gap» through the cyclic component and other factors.