STUDY OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS AND VALIDATION OF GROWTH FACTORS
Abstract
The study of economic dynamics and growth factors that form potential and real GDP is an essential condition for justifying the ways for the Russian economy to surpass the world’s average growth rate. This suggests the use of reliable and representative statistics and models that include both general economic variables and factors, and factors specific for the Russian economy in its current state. The authors outline problems of constructing a factor model corresponding to the specifics of the Russian economy and assessing the impact of factors on economic growth, primarily on the dynamics of the potential GDP. The composition of the potential GDP growth factors is substantiated. The role of conjuncture factors in supporting the growth is determined, for the most part due to internal causes. An accounting method for the innovation factor based on evaluation of the innovation fund and its contribution to economic growth is proposed. The article shows that at the turn of the 2000s and 2010s, and to a greater extent - after 2012, when the economy entered the last cyclical crisis, the structure of economic growth factors has been significantly changing. The article describes characteristics of the rebound from cyclical recession, which is currently being recorded. This creates conditions for a new cyclical upturn, which can be supported by the corresponding economic policy. The choice of economic growth factors in mid-term perspective is argued.
About the Authors
G. O. Kuranov
Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation
Russian Federation
(Moscow)
Russian Federation
(Moscow)
R. F. Luk’yanenko
Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation
Russian Federation
(Moscow)
Russian Federation
(Moscow)
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Review
For citations:
Kuranov G.O., Luk’yanenko R.F. STUDY OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS AND VALIDATION OF GROWTH FACTORS. Voprosy statistiki. 2017;1(11):3-20. (In Russ.)
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