THE DEBATE ABOUT THE ACCURACY OF INDICATORS OF MACROECONOMIC STATISTICS

Abstract

The article considers various problems of securing reliability of macroeconomic indicators, which are discussed for decades on the pages of special literature and in various forums of statisticians. In this context the author gives a comparative analysis of different opinions on traditional formulas of indices used to obtain dynamic characteristics of economic performance and inflation processes. Their advantages and disadvantages are noted from the point of view of axiomatic and economic index theories. The article proposes a modern interpretation of the substitution concept within the frameworks set by the problems of the adequacy of statistical calculations under study. Its origins are associated with the work of a special commission set up in the US Congress at the end of the last century to analyze the methodology for calculating the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Considerable attention is paid to the implementation in the domestic practical statistics of a number of significant innovations in the interpretation of important economic transactions in the SNA 2008, primarily related to the content of the indicator «expenditures on research and development and other intellectual property products.» Disclosing the features of new approaches in the system of macroeconomic measurements, the author thereby initiates the development of statistical observation, transformation of reporting, reformatting of primary sources of statistical data.