MATHEMATICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELING OF THE GRP PRODUCTION DYNAMICS IN THE REGIONS OF THE NORTH AND THE ARCTIC: IN SEARCH OF A BETTER MODEL
Abstract
The article presents the results of the mathematical and statistical modeling of GRP production in the regions of the Russian North and the Arctic, using various models of production functions, and substantiates the prospects for further research. The experience of econometric modeling based on real statistics shows that the diversity of economies in the North and the Arctic regions warrants the search for the best model variations that sufficiently describe economic processes in the these particular regions. When modeling the GRP production, were used volume indices, which made it possible to level out the impact of inflation and price conjuncture on world markets. This is especially important when investigating the production processes of the constituent entities of the North and the Arctic, economy of which is based on the extraction and processing of natural resources.
Methodical features have been discussed and econometric models have been constructed for GRP production in the regions of the North and the Arctic in three variants: 1) multiplicative production function; 2) a special case of the multiplicative production function is a function of the Cobb-Douglas type; 3) the production function CES (Constant Elasticity Substitution), characterized by a constant elasticity of substitution.
For the Arkhangelsk region, the Nenets, the Yamal-Nenets autonomous areas, the Sakhalin region and the Russian Federation, in general, have been identified models that best describe the impact of production factors on the final results of economic performance.
The main perspectives of fundamental research are associated with the expansion of the application of other models for production functions and the search for indicators that better describe the actual dynamics of GRP production in the regions of the North, the Arctic and the Russian Federation as a whole.
About the Authors
T. P. Skufina
Luzin Institute for Economic Studies of the Kola Science Center, Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Apatity
Russian Federation
Apatity
S. V. Baranov
Luzin Institute for Economic Studies of the Kola Science Center, Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Apatity
Russian Federation
Apatity
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Review
For citations:
Skufina T.P., Baranov S.V. MATHEMATICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELING OF THE GRP PRODUCTION DYNAMICS IN THE REGIONS OF THE NORTH AND THE ARCTIC: IN SEARCH OF A BETTER MODEL. Voprosy statistiki. 2017;(7):52-64. (In Russ.)
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