ECONOMETRIC MODELLING OF REGION’S MUNICIPALITIES DEVELOPMENT WITH ACCOUNT TO THEIR INHOMOGENEITY (case study: Republic of Bashkortostan)

This article is devoted to the econometric modeling of economic development in municipalities with account to their spatial and temporal inhomogeneity. An overview of econometric models of economic growth in municipalities is given in the first part of the article. Second part of this article presents the results of empirical research aimed at assessing the contribution of factors affecting economic growth in municipalities of the Republic of Bashkortostan.

Econometric modeling was carried out for groups of municipalities because of heterogeneity of intraregional development. Municipalities in the region have been divided into four clusters using cluster analysis. The authors have developed models for each cluster, which describe the dependence of the gross municipal product of the cost of human and investment resources. Estimation was performed by methods of panel data. It was proven empirically that the clusters are characterized by a different impact of the used growth factors. In general economic growth in all municipalities of the republic was carried out due to human resources. High concentration of human and investment resources in municipalities did not provide a high return on them. The article concludes with recommendations on the regional policy measures needed to improve economic growth in the municipalities of the region, as well as recommendations on the formation of lists of «growth poles» and depressed areas in the regional space.

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