Statistical analysis of social and environmental risks of international trade in virtual water

It is proposed methods of statistical analysis of global trade in virtual water in the context of increasing social and environmental tensions. The influence of exports and imports on indicators related to social and environmental risks was investigated on the example of the world virtual water trade flows in agricultural products. Data from websites of the World Bank and the World Trade Organization for the period from 1994 to 2011 is used in the analysis. The methodology is based on econometric modeling. The base model represents a set of typological systems of apparently unrelated regression equations, estimated on panel data for pre-selected groups of countries. The indicators associated with indicators of social and environmental risks were used as endogenous variables in the system. Characteristics of international trade in virtual water were included in the composition of the exogenous variables. In order to determine the typological grouping of countries, their structure was analyzed in relation to the balance of exportimport of agricultural products and the world trade indicators corresponding to the indicators developed under the auspices of the World Water Council. As a result of the analysis the existence of stable groups of countries was shown. We found the countries that were either mainly exporting or importing agricultural products for these years. The share of the third considered group of countries with the varying sign of the balance of export and import amounted only to 30%. The factors influencing the formation of groups were revealed. In particular, the role water resources was shown, both in quantitative aspect, and from the perspective of efficiency of their use. For the first group of countries a significant effect of exports on indicators of environmental pollution on agricultural products was found. For the second group the connection of import and export of agricultural products with the migration flow was shown especially notably. The overall pattern for the three groups was the fact that countries with more intensive trade flows had a lower rating of environmental sustainability.

виртуальная вода, международная торговля, международная статистика, экологические риски, социальные риски, эконометрическая модель, virtual water, international trade, international statistics, environmental risks, social risks, econometric model

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