DEVELOPMENT OF METHODOLOGY FOR STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF FOOD SECURITY

In this article is reviewed the methodology of statistical analysis of food security as a means of enabling quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the sustainability of the national food system. Whereas, the author focuses on two sides of it (out of five set out in the «Rome Declaration on World Food Security»): stability, meaning that the national food system develops in an extended reproduction mode; the ability of national food system to minimize the vulnerability to, and impact of, climate and other fluctuations of the food supply of the population in all regions of the country. Sustainable production of basic foodstuffs within the borders of the Russian Federation can be evaluated by the results of the statistical analysis of coordination or asynchronous fluctuations in production by region of the Russian Federation, differences in the conditions of climatic characteristics in time and space. The author examines the dynamics of per capita grain production and its volatility for forty-four years in all regions, territories and republics of the Russian Federation, which, on one hand reflects the pattern in the sustainability of national food system, and, on the other hand, as applied to agriculture as a whole, reflects climatic variations. A system of statistical indicators to measure the level and dynamics of sustainable production in various forms of trends is proposed. Indicators of sustainability trends also indicate the presence of cycles (cycle stability).

продовольственная безопасность, устойчивость производства, статистические показатели устойчивости производства, асинхронность уровней производства, цикличность динамики, food security, sustainable production, statistical indicators of production sustainability, asynchronous production levels, cyclicity of dynamics

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