Статистический анализ критических социально-экономических факторов развития болезни COVID-19

Цель исследования – на основе сопоставления статистических данных больших репрезентативных выборок проанализировать воздействие ряда социально-экономических факторов на течение пандемии COVID-19, а также оценить критические факторы, влияющие на развитие инфекционного процесса вируса SARS-CoV-2.

Для подготовки обзора источников по данной теме были найдены необходимые публикации в Интернете по выбранным ключевым словам – как по одному слову, так и по различным сочетаниям слов. Статистическая информация, характеризующая социальные-экономические факторы, была получена из баз данных, доступных в Интернете. Для определения статистической взаимосвязи использовался коэффициент корреляции Пирсона (r).

Впервые была исследована взаимосвязь между социально-экономическими факторами и последствиями 15-месячной пандемии COVID-19 в отдельных регионах с использованием различных доступных статистических данных для пяти континентов и 52 стран. Установлена положительная связь между исходом эпидемии вируса SARS-CoV-2 и ВВП на душу населения, а также типом питания человека с коэффициентами корреляции в диапазоне 0,42–0,87. Развитие вирусной пандемии показало менее четкую связь с плотностью населения (значения коэффициента r от -0,18 до -0,28 в зависимости от группы стран). Для островных государств географическая изоляция была доминирующей защитой от распространения инфекции SARS-CoV-2.

Сопоставление статистических данных о развитии COVID-19 в различных регионах и изучение как экономических, так и социальных аспектов, выполненное на больших репрезентативных выборках, показало, что продуктивная инфекция и патогенность вируса SARS-CoV-2 возрастали при высоком уровне жизни и чрезмерном потреблении основных продуктов питания. В странах с низким ВВП и адекватным потреблением белков или жиров показатели инфицирования SARS-CoV-2 и смертности не превышали минимальный эпидемический порог. Детальное изучение влияния потребляемых макроэлементов на динамику инфекционного цикла вируса SARS-CoV-2 даст возможность объяснить причину устойчивости к возбудителю. Для такого изучения потребуется дальнейший сравнительный анализ статистических данных о пандемии COVID-19.

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