DECOMPOSITION AND JOINED ANALYSIS OF GROWTH CYCLES IN THE DYNAMICS OF ECONOMIC SENTIMENT INDICATOR AND VOLUME INDEX OF THE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

The article considers potential of composite indicators of business tendencies surveys to measure short-term cycles of economic dynamics and presents the main results of the empirical study of the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI HSE), combining key information on sectoral surveys business trends in real, consumer and service sectors of the Russian economy for the I quarter 1998 - I quarter 2014. The main goal of the study is an answer to questions about admissibility to use business tendencies monitoring results in composition of the national information infrastructure. Do, for example, short-term trends of economic sentiment reflect the basic trajectory of real economy development for the period under review? Is it possible to use ESI HSE time series as an indicator of phases and turning points of growth cycles in the dynamics of statistical macro-aggregates, namely, volume index of the Gross Domestic Product? Key findings indicate scientifically valid ability of business tendencies monitoring indicators to be a part of the national corpus of short-term cyclical indicators and statistically significant admissibility of their practical usage in this capacity. This expands considerably information capabilities of business tendencies monitoring in structural-spatial analysis of entrepreneurial behavior and in identification of cyclical development of the economy of the country in temporal aspect.

конъюнктурный мониторинг, индекс экономического настроения, индекс физического объема ВВП, бизнес-циклы, циклы роста, датировка поворотных точек, декомпозиция динамики, business tendencies monitoring, Economic Sentiment Indicator, GDP volume index, business cycles, growth cycles, turning points dating, decomposition of dynamics

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