Major Trends in the Primary Residential Real Estate Market: Economic and Statistical Analysis (Case Study: The City of Moscow)

The authors present results of the study of the domestic residential real estate market, using the city of Moscow as an example. Importance of this study comes from the fact that the residential real estate market occupies a significant place in the national economy; that said, it is necessary to take into account its scale and development dynamics. On one hand, the development of the residential real estate market is always considered within our country’s social policy that is targeted at raising standards of living. Оn the other hand, players in various markets participate in the housing construction industry because in it are concentrated significant volumes of financial flows. For a more detailed economic and statistical analysis, the authors chose the most dynamically developing segment of residential real estate in Moscow - the market for new buildings. According to the authors, dynamics, and nature of change in the indicators of the capital market of primary real estate along with general market conditions was affected by legislative changes that have occurred in the construction and banking sectors.

Given the heterogeneous development of the capital market in a large metropolis such as Moscow, the authors applied the clustering of districts using the results of comprehensive studies of the primary real estate market of previous years. For this study, four groups of factors 

were identified: characteristics of apartments, indicators of transport accessibility, the level of infrastructure development and the state of the environment. The information sources included databases of leading real estate companies such as CIAN, Metrium, Domofond (as of the end of May 2019), as well as official statistics from Mosgorstat, Mosecomonitoring, Unified Transport Portal. After the preliminary analysis of the data, sample was made of new buildings of the mass segment (economy and class comfort).

Using regression analysis, the authors constructed models of the dependence of the cost per square meter of residential real estate on the market of new buildings in Moscow on several factors and identified the most significant of them. The results of the study presented in the article may be of interest to consulting companies, real estate agencies, employees of the banking sector, as well as local authorities for strategic planning of the development of the real estate market.

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