Evaluation of the Migration Potential of the CIS Countries Based on the Model of International Migration

The authors of this paper developed own statistical model of international migration and on its basis determined trends in changes in migration potential of the CIS states. This article analyzes migration flows from the CIS countries to Russia in terms of arrivals and net migration. It reconstructs 1997-2010 data on external net migration for all CIS countries and highlights the importance of continuing to improve the database on external migration. Having selected the most significant factors affecting external migration from five-factor groups, the authors proposed the migration cost equation. Model simulation of external migration patterns to Russia from 11 countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States was conducted. The partial adjustment model was used to identify the differences between short-term and long-term factors of international migration flows.

Using ordinary least square estimator with fixed effects method allows to consider the country-specific fixed effects. The number of immigrants and the employment characteristics in their country of stay are proven to have the most significant influence on migration processes in all the CIS states.

According to the authors’ forecast, the average annual net migration from the CIS countries to Russia will be just over 132 thousand people in 2018-2023. The derived quantitative variables can be regarded as additional data supporting a hypothesis about feasible directions of migration flows in the CIS countries and provide new insights. With this the authors arrive at a conclusion that there is a possible decrease in net migration from the CIS states into the Russian Federation. Addressing the need to create favorable conditions in order to attract migrants in accordance with demographic, societal and economic needs of Russia and to promote social adaptation and integration of migrants calls for new approaches to migration and economic policy in Russia and, therefore, is becoming increasingly important.

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