State and Trends of Socio-Economic Development of Russia: Between Stagnation and Recession

The article analyses socio-economic development of Russia in 2017-2018, as well as forecasts and estimates for the near future.It compares Russian and global economic development trends in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), industrial production and other major macroeconomic indicators.

The authors address problems, threats and risks associated with ensuring accelerated development, creating prerequisites for the implementation of the message of the President of Russia to the Federal Assembly of March 1, 2018 and the May (2018) Decree on the national goals and strategic objectives of the country’s development up to 2024 arising from this message. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of the formation and implementation of the federal budget and national projects, ensuring the growth of investment and consumer activity, growth of labor productivity and employment, and accelerating the development of the small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs), as wellas the impact of foreign threats and sanctions on the real economy, social and financial sectors.

The paper considers the shortcomings of the current management system, primarily in the formation of national forecasts and federal budgets that are not focused on the implementation of economic restructuring and ensuring economic growth and social progress in priority areas of life identified by the national projects. It is these shortcomings that pose a real threat and initiate a new recession at the start of the next three-year period 2019-2021.

The authors present comparative assessments of forecasts of macroeconomic indicators and, above all, the development of the real sector of the economy, ensuring the acceleration of social progress and overcoming threats to the economic, scientific, technical and social situation of the country.

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